All Activity

Rather warm to our North and West in the longrange Canada also very warm.

Euro range to the start of October so it’s about Imelda mostly. If you look at the euro runs it’s been getting walked back further and further since yesterday morning. This is coupled with major forecasters and prominent users advertising a wet pattern for this upcoming week that, with these walk backs, is now in jeopardy. Normally I don’t harp on rain as hardly as snow but it’s fall in a budding Niña, there’s a real possibility that after this there’s nothing for quite some time. Given our luck we could make a run at last year’s rainless record again this year since September seems to be a repeat of last year.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi There are other sites out there but I use these when recon is in the air. Expect consistent upper air and low level recon now.

Some wonky solutions overnight and this morning. This is from the 6z gfs. This would cause a lot of flooding in the area. A lot of people would have PTSD over this... Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

0.75" Should have lowered my expectations.

Nascent CBs concentrating on the eyewall, warm spot becoming more pronounced on IR. The eye is about to pop out

Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in?

How much are we expecting the NE pac to cool over the next few months? My seasonal/subseasonal prof is saying the NE warm pool is a remnant of the triple dip and wont last much longer

6z euro still with a solid rain shield for tomorrow.

I think we need to specify you’re talking about Imelda, not tomorrow’s rain. And the details about Imelda have never in the faintest way approached “locked in” where anything is being walked back.

All eyes understandably on future Ismerelda, but nice to see a fall chill after. Lows in the mid 40s on the GFS next Friday/Saturday

It would not shock me to see an uncoupled (disconnected) SPV this winter where the SPV is weak but there’s a +AO at the surface, as Commoditywx showed in that tweet above. That looks like a very strong tendency of previous years with the -IOD and the Copernicus is showing it for November and December

Typically has a cold bias though so the consistency in warm/dry anomalies it's been progging for early season over the past couple days may be worth noting

Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now.

Still more rainfall after this across NC

This data set illustrates my point about how crucial the WPO will be. All of these seasons except for 1998, which sucked, had a -WPO. Having a favorable WPO leaves much more margin for error, so hopefully the western warm pool is offset enough by the NE PAC warming so that it isn't so extreme this season. A strongly positive WPO leaves virtually no margin for error around the rest of the hemisphere, so if anything else is significantly unfavorable, then most of us are cooked and upside is near normal.

We’ll be lucky if we get half an inch and even that is starting to look overly optimistic. Walk backs beget further walk backs.

And the fact check on the political report aimed at reversing the EPA's endangerment finding. https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/doe-factcheck/images/Carbonbrief-DOE-factcheck.pdf

Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (2007) NYC: 91 (1970) LGA: 90 (2007) JFK: 87 (1970) Lows: EWR: 40 (1940) NYC: 42 (1940) LGA: 44 (1947) JFK: 47 (1949) Historical: 1936 - Denver, CO, was buried under 21.3 inches of snow, 19.4 inches of which fell in 24 hours. The heavy wet snow snapped trees and wires causing seven million dollars damage. (26th-27th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1936: The heaviest snowfall ever recorded in September and the heaviest snowfall ever recorded so early in the season dumped a total of 16.5 inches of snow on downtown Denver and 21.3 inches at Denver Municipal Airport. The 15.0 inches of snow measured from 6:00 PM on the 27th to 6:00 PM on the 28th is the greatest 24-hour snowfall ever recorded in September. This was the first snow of the season. The snow was intermittent on the 26th, but continuous from early afternoon on the 27th to around midnight on the 28th, except for a period of rain during the afternoon of the 28th. 1936: A forest fire burned several miles east of the town of Brandon, Oregon. The fire was far enough away that residents were not particularly worried. A sudden shift in the winds drove the flames westward and through town. The fire, caused by summer drought and fueled by the abundant Gorse Weed found in many of the empty spaces between buildings in Bandon, caused so much destruction that only a handful of structures were left standing when the fire finally died down. 1936 - A forest fire burned several miles east of the town of Bandon, Oregon. The fire was far enough away that residents were not particularly worried. A sudden shift in the winds drove the flames westward and through town. The fire, caused by summer drought and fueled by the abundant Gorse Weed found in many of the empty spaces between buildings in Bandon, caused so much destruction that only a handful of structures were left standing when the fire finally died down. 1942: A severe freeze was experienced across the upper Plains and Midwest from the 26th to the 28th. The temperature at Parshall, ND dropped to a record low of 4° on this date. Winona, MN dropped to 25°, their coldest September temperature. Also on this date, snow fell across parts of Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. Locations recording their earliest measurable snowfall included: Caledonia, MN: 5 inches, Fayette, IA: 1 inch and La Crosse, WI: 0.2 of an inch. Snow fell in early morning, mostly melting as it fell. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1950 - Residents of the northeastern U.S. observed a blue sun and a blue moon, caused by forest fires in British Columbia. (David Ludlum) 1953: The center of Hurricane Florence hit the northwest Florida coast between Valparaiso and Panama City near midday with wind maximum sustained winds near 80 mph with gusts to 90 mph and heavy rainfall. The Pensacola Weather Bureau Office reported winds of up to 75 mph early the next morning. The storm passed inland over a sparsely settled area of Florida and this probably accounts for the rather small amount of damage. In Franklin and Okaloosa Counties the Red Cross estimated that 273 homes were destroyed, 145 other buildings damaged, and three destroyed. A fishing trawler, the "Miss Tampa" was reported missing in the storm's wake. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1955: On this date, the Atlantic reconnaissance aircraft, ”Snowcloud Five” went down while investigating Hurricane Janet and was never heard from again. Lt. Comdr. Windham with a crew of 8 and two newspapermen reported that they were about to begin penetrating the central core of the hurricane. The hurricane made landfall at peak intensity near Chetumal, Mexico on September 29th. Janet's landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Yucatán Peninsula was the first recorded instance that a storm of such intensity in the Atlantic made landfall on a continental mainland; prior to Janet, landfalls of Category 5 intensity were only known to have taken place on islands. 1963 - San Diego, CA, reached an all-time record high of 111 degrees. Los Angeles hit 1S09 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1970 - Santa Ana winds brought fires to Los Angeles County, and to points south and east. Half a million acres were consumed by the fires, as were 1000 structures. Twenty firemen were injured. (25th-29th) (The Weather Channel) 1971: Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into them and seeding with silver iodide. The project was run by the United States Government from 1962 to 1983. Hurricane Ginger in 1971 was the last hurricane Project Stormfury seeded. 1979 - In the midst of a hot September for Death Valley, California, the afternoon high was 104 degrees for the second of three days, the coolest afternoon highs for the month. (The Weather Channel) 1985: Hurricane Gloria weakened briefly while moving from northeast of the Bahamas to just off the southern North Carolina coast by days end. Gloria peaked the previous day with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and a minimum central pressure of 920 millibars or 27.17 inches of mercury. Gloria weakened during this date to 90 mph at 06z and 12z before regaining strength intensifying to 100 mph by days end. Washington, DC area was lucky as hurricane Gloria stays well east of Washington, DC. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Freezing temperatures were reported in the Northern and Central Appalachians, and the Upper Ohio Valley. The morning low of 27 degrees at Concord NH tied their record for the date. Temperatures soared into the 90s in South Dakota. Pierre SD reported an afternoon high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across Florida. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees at Apalachicola and 95 degrees at Fort Myers were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Rain spread from the southeastern states across New England overnight. Cape Hatteras NC reported measurable rainfall for the fourteenth straight day, with 15.51 inches of rain recorded during that two week period. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 108 degrees, and a record 134 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Afternoon temperatures were only in the 40s over parts of northwest Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary) 1998: Record warm weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley fueled a severe weather outbreak as a cold front arrived during the late afternoon. A severe thunderstorm produced softball-sized hail in Clare County which smashed skylights, dented automobiles, and damaged roofs and antennas. Damage was estimated at up to half a million dollars. Record highs for the date included: Toledo, OH: 92°, Columbus, OH: 92°, Detroit, MI: 91°, Cleveland, OH: 91°, South Bend, IN: 91°-Tied, Flint, MI: 90°, Chicago, IL: 90°, Grand Rapids, MI: 89°, Lansing, MI: 89°, Jackson, KY: 87° and Mansfield, OH: 87°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: There were four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893. 2004 - After making its infamous loop east of the Bahamas, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall the night of September 26th, 2004. Jeanne came ashore as a major category 3 hurricane just a few miles away from where Hurricane Frances made landfall a few weeks before. Jeanne produced extensive damage along the east central Florida coast from Volusia County south to Martin County. The highest wind gusts occurred over extreme Southern Brevard County as well as Indian River County with 110 - 120 mph estimates at the peak of the storm. (NWS, Melbourne, FL)

Sounds like orb weavers. They’re great at killing other bugs. Non venomous to humans

Yeah I won't bother them if they're outside, but inside that is a different problem . But yeah the number I've seen outside, especially larger spiders is very noticeable. Actually, I've grown to not care as much if they are inside anymore but its the crawling that creeps me out. I probably should have gotten this addressed when I was a kid...no clue where it started or what sparked it but this fear of spiders is an awful thing...if I see one near me it elicits this intense response in my body. I hate it.

Penn State!

Especially when its the nam showing the rain coming furthest north

72 / 67 clear. Low / mid 80s and a chance to get to 80 the next 4, including today which would make it 7 straight for the warmest areas. Clouds the factor Sat-Sun. Showers / storms possible overnight Sat into Sun but drying/clearing by the sunday day break. Humberto / Imelda next week with what should be Imelda going into the S/C Carolina borders and we'll see if anything comes up this way eventually in the 105-10/7 period.. Overall warm here through he 10th, could see some brief cool down between the 1-3 with E/NE/ENE flow for 2 days. By the 10th trough into the northeast looks shortlived - overall warmer beyond there.

This data set actually has some nice winters for my area...2004, 1993, 1992 and 1960 were great, very good, great and very good. 1974 and 2016 were respectable. 1979-1980 was my lowest snowfall season ever and 1998 sucked. I think I would take this data set over the other one TBH.