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For all you Minnesotans out there, the International Falls evening weather sounding said 89/71 with 4447 J/kg of CAPE with no storms nearby.

That was quick. Mt Holly A-gaming it.

You wanted heat for your garden. Your vegetables will be coming pre-cooked.

Very low, less than 0.001%. Our strongest el ninos (namely 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16) ended up between 2.5-3C. 5C is way off the charts.

Yep. But seeing lightning off of that storm to my South.

For as inexpensive as a small window ac unit is, I would have one available to use even if i only needed for a handful of days a year just because I hate sleeping in a hot room. It’s not like I have to use my ac all summer here either but for those really warm nights, I would be miserable the next day if I didn’t have it. It seems like the older i get, the less tolerant I am of hot or cold. lol.

Swing and a miss for Frederick proper.

Yeah should have specified imby, somewhat odd looking ridge, good luck to our friends up northwest breaking some records

Should be ok. Grew up on boats but good to know being a much bigger boat.

Back in the day when the NWS only had the zone forecasts, they would always say “ cooler near Lake Huron” over here in the spring and Summer when needed. However, I don’t ever recall a forecast that said warmer near Lake Huron in the Fall or Winter. There are a lot of times especially in the Fall when there could be gale force winds blowing at the shore with a temperature of 50F while it’s in the 30s with frost and calm winds 20 miles inland. Maybe they just figured the average person didn’t care about that? Just my thought for the day.

Nada for MBY outside sprinkles around 1-2pm. Back to drought?

Yeah this is looking like a potentially very significant heatwave for the northern areas of the subforum. Temps look like they will max out in the upper 90s or even the rare 100s. There has been like 5-6 heatwaves that have led to 100s that far N, and unlike those ones it won't be that hot here as well. Paradoxically, you will have to go south to cool off early next week. This heatwave also coincides with the peak tourist season up N, which could compound heat effects as people are in cabins or campers that are not equipped to handle a couple of days in the upper 90s-100s with 70 degree lows in between.

Yup, you guys cashed in!

Looks like another Mesoscale Convective System is heading our way from Central Tennessee tonight.

CanSIPS likes that idea.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi&id=d3daebb5-3836-491e-b8b7-f5217a0fc12c

Please hold together

We've been getting slammed in Linglestown with these storms... Almost 3 inches of rain since early Thursday morning!

Current Atlantic SSTA is hopeful for -NAO bouts this Winter. Unfortunately the Pacific is as hard core -PDO as it has ever been (despite El Nino). I do think it is possible to get -EPO in El Nino. reverse 1895-1950 La Nina's are very -epo/el nino.

Some of those years we had cold air delivery via a -EPO and a well timed/transient -NAO that supported a snowstorm. Jan 2017, 18 and 2022 are examples.

The warmest 850 temps are actually north of Chicago at the beginning of the week. I think this has potential to see some actual temperatures that are the highest we’ve seen in years for Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The funny part is there probably won’t be the media hype that we saw leading into the 4th of July since the dewpoints will be much lower leading to a lower heat index which leads to probably nothing worse than heat advisories. Of course everyone on this board knows that you need the lower dewpoints if you want higher actual temperatures.

We need a -AO and or -EPO to deliver legit cold. Outside of that we rely on a dynamic system(evap/dynamic cooling) with a very favorable track, and probably need a significant, established negative NAO to feed cold enough air southward as a coastal low climbs the coast. That's kind of always been part of the formula, esp in a Nino, but might be a bit more of a challenge today. Thus why I generally don't mind Ninas at all lately given my location, mostly depending on the NE Pac ridge position/orientation.

Good boundary is moving south. Seems there might be an old remnant (from yesterday I guess) one north to south across western ffx county as well. Maybe that with the Reston UHI/city convergence can get something going.

Didn't see the rotation on radar for that. Mt. Holly says straight lines.

Watching that outflow coming SE from PA while sitting on the stoop downtown and really hoping it at least brings a breeze as it hits us.