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I am starting to think this has the potential to be a big winter in the east, especially New England. I like what I am seeing with the warm pool that has developed just off the pacific NW, that is something that was present in our big +PNA/-EPO winters. There are also signs that the La Niña is going to be east based, which is another point in our favor.

44.1 degree low! That is chilly!

Followup: Although the 0Z UKMET dropped this in the middle of the MDR, today’s 12Z brings it right back in a similar position with similar timing also moving mainly WNW. This run gets to a low end TS just after 156 hours: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.2N 33.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 132 13.2N 33.4W 1010 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 144 14.5N 36.3W 1009 29 0000UTC 16.09.2025 156 15.2N 38.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 16.09.2025 168 16.4N 42.0W 1006 38

Models are hinting at a possible inverted trough around Sun-Mon. Would be nice to get a little bit of rain in the midst of this dry period.

Synoptic scale events can still lead to snowy outcomes even with hostile boundary conditions. The super El Niño winter of 2015-16 is an example. There was a single massive snowstorm that skewed the numbers. There was also a severe Arctic outbreak that sent the mercury in Central Park to -1° on February 14. Much of the rest of the winter was very warm with a lack of snowfall.

The gap between the pristine, gold standard US Climate Reference Network and nClimDiv continues to widen, with USCRN coming in a whopping 0.2F warmer for this summer. Contrary to the narrative widely spun on social media (and even among some in the traditional media), USCRN continues to warm at a faster rate than nClimDiv as more unadjusted/uncorrected biases are allowed to infiltrate nClimDiv. Recently, NOAA replaced temperature sensors, shields, and aspiration fans across its ASOS network, although it's unclear whether this is fully completed [last update was from July 1 and they were over halfway done at that time]. Probably no surprise that this summer saw the widest gap between the two, when ASOS sites make up a sizable portion of the nClimDiv dataset. The only difference in rankings is while nClimDiv has 2006 as 0.17F warmer than this summer, USCRN has this summer as 0.21F warmer. Also, USCRN has this summer MUCH closer to 2011, 2018, and 2016 - within a few hundredths of a degree. USCRN would also rank 2021 above 1936, subject, of course, to the qualification that this network didn't exist at that time (so it's comparing to the anomalies from nClimDiv dataset).

Does the chill return late month?

23 huh pass

No statewide records, although a number of states finished in the top 10th percentile. No states were cooler than the full mean.

For summer as a whole, this will go down in the books as the 12th hottest on record, as I had predicted at the beginning of the month. Official number checks in at 73.33F, very near my ballpark estimate of 73.39F. Just 0.65F shy of the record summers of 2021 & 1936. I think it's only a matter of time before we eclipse that. The only summers hotter than this one from the 20th century were the drought-ridden Dust Bowl years of 1934 & 1936.

Big dropoff in August temperatures for the CONUS, although the persons characterizing this as a "normal" or "average" August were clearly full of you know what. Coldest since 2017, but still 28th warmest overall. One thing you can easily see in this graphic is before about the mid 1980s, Augusts this warm nationally were very rare (only a handful of occasions).

72 / 51 here ENW flow Clouds movement is fun to watch today low level ENE to SSW and higher clouds SW to NE

17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.

49 for a low which is the low for the fall so far

Warming up for winter

I think you are obfuscating the PDO and WPO a bit. I think a severely +WPO does cap most of the mid atl and SNE at a near normal snowfall season....but I was referring to the PDO more in my response to you. There are plenty of severely negative PDO seasons that were very snowy in the east, but most of them are aged analogs due to the WPO, which has been biased very positive this decade by the warm pool. I don't think it needs to cool as much as you think to remain positve, but to a degree that isn't as prohibitive to wintry weather in the eastern US.

Today will be the 16th below normal day in a row at PIT. By the time this streak ends, it should be the longest streak of below normal since 21 days at this same time of year in 2017.

Err...you kinda confirmed my point about Lamar's availability on that play by sharing this. Lamar literally said he would've gone for it if jot for the cramp--and Lamar does not lie about stuff, and you know how often he tells Harbs to go for it, lol Think of his history and how much of a competitor he is--if he could go you KNOW he woulda been right out there screaming for them to go for it. That's who he is--so for him not to stay out there you know he wasn't feeling right. And ya want more evidence? Lamar was absolutely LEVELED by a D-lineman the play before and it should've been a flag. I heard that Lamar kinda hobbled off after that. That hit is probably what caused it. So to me, saying "Lamar is covering for his coach" is pure confirmation bias speculation that doesn't match with Lamar's history or character. Now I know you gonna think I'm defending Harbaugh overall but I'm not--so don't misunderstand...I am NOT disagreeing that Harbaugh has issues with game management. I'm sure that's your main point. But I DO disagree with you saying Lamar could've been out there (which is what MY point is). I do not believe he was available. And I also do not believe a 30 second timeout would've been enough time to get Lamar to recover and get back out there that quickly. Now...could they have brought in Cooper Rush and just ran Henry right at 'em? I can kinda understand that argument. Lower success rate because of no Lamar but...maybe.

IMO a ton of cooling has to happen in the northwest PAC over an extended period of time this fall. The cooling pattern has to be sustained over a long time. Let’s see what happens. SSTs that far above normal do feedback into the pattern and alter the global heat budget. If we were talking about anomalies of +2 or +3, then yes, I’d agree that it’s not feeding back, but this incredibly warm? I think the latent and sensible heat release absolutely does alter the global long wave pattern and is a very important factor like @donsutherland1 pointed out

must be the method the 3km uses to calculate CAPE but it sometimes seems to be on the higher side versus reality with MUCape.

Euro op ran from David’s basement

Yeah, but I follow A LOT of places. For the past decades/years, coop sites would routinely own all of the coldest statewide low temperatures. A lot of people referred to it as an "airport heat effect" but I'm seeing lots of airport sites now in the mix for coldest regional/state lows. They are doing WAY better when it comes to radiating heat away with these new sensors. I can see it with my own two eyes. I'm in the middle of the woods and the airport surrounded by concrete is routinely now seeing low temperatures as low as mine when it used to be several degrees hotter. That's not due to drought.

certainly could see some showers/storms Saturday with that feature, though perhaps favored over the higher terrain? Sunday perhaps better suited for northern Maine.

Mm ...don't take that sneaky diving mid/u/a cold pool on Sunday for minimal, necessarily. that looks likes like a gusty outflow hailer producer. We have a west wind at the surface with NW at 700 mb, so we're taking our positive shear and rotating it around the dial, while the heights are rapidly falling at mid levels along with lower glaciation height through mid day with that diving aspect. It's prevalent on the overnight operational runs and is still D5/6 so the notion could vanquish... but that feature's been there in some for or another fairly consistently. so we'll see. 06z gfs lost it but had in the 00z, ranging to the aggressive cmc... Euro's sort of in between.

@snowman19You seem to pointing out why 2013 isn't a replica analog rather than why we can't see similar sensible weather adjusted for CC....as far as the former, I agree...no season really is; but I think the latter is entirely feasible.