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8-12”, gimme gimme. SN- and freezing drizzle here — got a glaze of ice.

The airport is reporting freezing drizzle. Hopefully that won't last long!

Pretty good looks in my book. I used to only do long range stuff based on precip anomalies and temp anomalies. I don't think I am much better today with all of the extra stuff. Here are some Euro LR ext maps centered on d15-46. I have attached both the mean and control runs. You can see below normal temps with above normal precip(yeah, that surprised me). I actually went through and looked at the precip by 7 day increments to see if it was just one big rainer. Nope, it looks like normal precip with the exception of the first maybe ten days. BN temps, AN precip, and a solid 500 map.

Considering the length of the 2001 (33 days) and 2018 (20) events, it as expected that a reflection event will begin between approximately January 13th and 16th 2026, and end between about February 2 and 18th. This is consistent with the climatologically favored time frame per the research that was referenced previously. In order to better understand how the PV interacts with North American weather, Lee at al identified four distinct weather regimes and listed their respective frequency of occurrence between the months of November and March, from 1979 through 2017, since they last longer than synoptic scale patterns and thus provide an opportunity for longer range prediction. Pacific Trough Pattern Precursor for Reflection Events Pattern recognition is paramount in the analysis and diagnosis of reflection events because the behavior of the polar vortex has predictive value on each of these regimes at both seasonal, and sub-seasonal leads, which is roughly 15-60 day in advance. "The PV strength significantly affects the occurrence and persistence of each regime and transition between regimes" (Lee at al 2019). Research by Kretschmer et al (2018) illustrated the importance of planetary wave reflection for anomalous cold across North America. This expounded on earlier work by Kordera et al (2016) that found that wave reflection born of Pacific blocking tele-connected to a down stream trough over North America. Thus the implication here is that the Alaskan ridge pattern, which is not at all connected to the PV and is actually accompanied by a +NAO, as alluded to earlier, is most conducive to reflection events and is this correlated to the most severe arctic outbreaks in the US. Lee et al (2019) refers to this type of pattern as the "Alaskan Ridge Regime" , which is similar to the Tropical Hemisphere Pattern (+TNH). This has been the most common vehicle for cold delivery over the past decade given the increased tendency for +NAO during the winter season, so it is important to remain mindful of the fact that climate change is certainly not prohibitive to severe cold outbreaks. It does, however, decrease residence time due to the enhanced Pacific jet keeping the flow more progressive.

Nothing beats hometown snow. I saw 7 feet of snow in the Nov 2014 Buffalo Lake Effect event. Very cool to see, but it can’t beat 2 feet on my own turf. However, if you have not witnessed lake effect like that, it is worth the trip. .

When I used to live in Michigan we got sick of LES after a time. Once you got enough base to snowmobile anywhere you want to go then anything on top of that is just a hassle to find somewhere to put it. Also, knowing that it's not til May before winter really ends kinda sucks. Also, as soon as the lakes freeze over, there goes your LES. No such thing as a coastal storm up there. Or here, either it seems. Also, there's something kind of unsatisfying to be stuck in a LES band for an hour then then have it shift a couple miles and be blazing sun out. Doesn't feel right. Better than this snow desert though.

It absolutely did here. Cars and sidewalks encased in ice. Very surprising. Not sure why as whole column would figure to be below freezing. Snowing now

But BAM is missing with the tropical forcing,sorry but hes wrong

Let's test the can kicking of the models. Below are WB EPS 12Z temp panels for the 15th. Let's see which way they trend over the next two weeks.

Perhaps these excerpts from my outlook last fall will prove somewhat illuminating.... Lee et al (2019) identified the transition from this Pacific trough regime to the Alaskan ridge regime as most conducive to the type of wave propagation needed to trigger a reflection event, which renders the Pacific trough regime the precursor pattern. This is a remarkable extended forecasting tool given the expectation for a mid January onset of a reflection event, as this implies that the first half of January is likely to be mild and characterized by Pacific trough regime with a rapidly consolidating PV, thus the arctic low regime is also worthy of consideration here during this mid-winter-thaw period. This period will also feature a considerable Pacific jet extension as mild Pacific air infiltrates the vast majority of the CONUS and flooding becomes a concern for areas that amassed a snowpack during the early season arctic high regime. Any seasonably cold air masses are likely to be dislodged from the east coast by a primary storm track across the interior. The expected midseason progression is illustrated in the schematic below that details the typical evolution of reflection event. Note that the pattern begins to reverse in earnest approximately 5 days after the event onset, during which time the anonymously strong PV reverts to normal strength, and begins to stretch due to the building Alaskan and Aleutian ridging that retrogrades from North America. This is why it very mild at the onset of these events, during the antecedent Pacific trough pattern, but by ten days post reflection the pattern has reversed and is characteristic of an Alaskan ridge regime (bottom right above). Once the process terminates and run its course by early February, a more canonical La Nina pattern will likely ensue in the absence of the expected SSW. However, should one materialize as anticipated, another arctic high interval is possible for potential grand finale to the season.

NAM brings us a minor ice storm Saturday night

Radar starting to blossom. Looks like it may start with brief period of freezing rain

Folks, I recommend that snowman and others not look at the Euro Weeklies today. I’d instead go outside and enjoy the fantastic Canadian air! And Happy New Year! May 2026 be dominated by more Canadian air! Keep in mind that the EW are essentially the extended 0Z EPS. The 12Z EPS trended better with the western ridge and that won’t be reflected on the EW.

It’s been 9 years since I seen over a 7” storm. I’ll take snow all the time over once and a blue moon lol. Also it doesn’t snow there in the summer

Edited that about to fall not autumn

This (the bolded part) I was at a trucking job orientation and while I was there we got a 2 ft snowstorm. It was cool, but nowhere near as enjoyable as it would have been in my own town and my own home and property.

I actually think I would hate it if it kept snowing 100% of the time. Part of the joy is the rarity and the chase. Different strokes

HRRR has some junk before midnight, NAM nasomuch.

Snow is snow. If it’s rippin 3”+ per hour I wouldn’t be bored haha

It’s a very deep SGZ so that helps even in light snow. Still think 3-4” is a heavy lift but if you have very good snow growth, then you can fluff your way to 3” on like 0.13” of liquid. I just hate using ratios to try and get there…because I’ve seen good soundings before but if the lift ends up too weak or not organized, you don’t realize the potential.

Definitely gonna do the lake effect chase in the coming years but it’s “fake effect” snow too, imo. Honestly think it would get boring to live there.

That’s fine. The accumulation of road salt will be enough. Also wouldn’t be the first time we’ve been a relative min recently

I was there once and chased in the 90s. Insanity!

My pre-season idea was for big +TNH to take over second half of January following a mid-month reflection event...this is also a great wave 2 precursor pattern for my forecast PV split in February.

It doesn't matter, people enjoy the 4-6 hour rush. There's nothing like snow in our backyards. We wouldn't treasure it the way we do if we averaged 180" a year, it's all a part of the mentality. Having to drive 8 hours for it and then back after is definitely the worst part. The chases are awesome for sure, but that's why a chase like DCL on MLK a few years ago for 20+" 2 hrs from home is epic but easier.