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Moderators, please get the political crap out of here.
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I'm ready to not wake up to temps in the 70s. Save that crap for the east coast.
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TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN CHAD, AFRICA (NOT 96L)
GaWx replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The 6Z EPS 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with this AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for the last 9 days: -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We don't need indexes in this new, warmer climate. Just stick a thermo in the piss-pool east of Japan and call it a day. Seriously, though...I do agree that there a ceiling on our winter potential until that changes. -
Or, I could have just typed this hahaha
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Boston Bulldog replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Lots of talk nationally of what may constitute a recession indicator for our economy. Looking around here, seeing some recession indicators for tropical weather comprehension, weather model fluency, and the understanding of the relationship between time and numerical weather prediction. Specifically 6 threads since Chantal, and only a 50mph fish storm in the subtropics to show for it. What are we doing here? I guess the inactive period truly was inactive, despite loud opposition. Might be controversial, but I don’t care what’s over Chad right now. -
Let's go!
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
nycwinter replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
not all recurve irma for example at one point way out in the atlantic it was already north of the islands yet with a strong ridge pressing westward and south irma went wsw for a day or 2. -
I have been saying this for years, but people seem to just want to gravitate towards left verses right. I believe media keeps us in this continued murk to deceive the masses.
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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That lack of ice melt pattern leading to -AO is really neat.. I almost want to think that the cold there in the Summer is artificial because of how it snaps the following Winter. I'm leaning toward something not so +nao and -pna. I might not do a seasonal outlook this year because of how close everything is to "neutral". We'll see. -
Let the dog days of August begin.
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One thing to keep in mind when dealing with these setups which can favor orographic development is the scale of the convection. You need very high resolution models to truly resolve this degree of convection. This is why if you were looking at the GFS (even the 12km or 32km NAM) they showed also little, if any QPF. The HRRR did better at picking up as did the 3km NAM but sometimes with this stuff its just a matter of not having models with high enough resolution to really resolve the potential. I also think some of the activity ended up a bit more widespread just due to extra upward motion from ongoing thunderstorms.
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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Because of shortened wavelengths in the mid Summer, July has a +temp correlation with +PNA from ATL to NYC -
That’s such a terrible opinion, I actually feel bad for you.
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Central PA Summer 2025
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
No rain here. Low of 63. A beautiful fews days ahead before things turn bigly muggy again next week. -
Yea it’s not the DEI, the illegals, the gays, or the welfare peeps…it’s the socialism for the big corps that steal trillions from taxpayers. Once the majority of Americans come to terms it is not a left vs right but a bottom vs top…we can finally get shit right here. Until then, they will continue to pin neighbors against each other while they collect more and more and more.
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Just musing over the 2-meter temp products from Pivotal ... wow. No shit! The GFS has something like a 8 consecutive days in the low and mid 90s, with a couple of them tickling a hundred. The Euro has a trough bullying across southern Canada ~ 210 or so hours.. mm, not impossible, but the ensembles are less emphatic with that idea. Despite that potential interruption ( which obviously subject to change at this range anyway ), the model still has multiple days of 90+, even sending 100 this next Wednesday. It may be that what is in store is the greatest heat of the season by virtue of length. That big heat near the tale end of June was short and of coarse very sweet. The one at the end of July, with record highs at multiple climo sites around S and C NE, was also not exceptionally long. But this looks in the models like the scalars might be 2-3 less, but lasting for a long time. It would win out in bulk....
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
This is 100% common sense to anyone who has been following the tropics the last 20 years. The globals after 120 hours should only be used as a tool to see where development potential exists. The first few waves will likely be sacrificial in moistening the MDR. As we head into late August it’s looking more likely we see at least a few long track MDR storms. They often recurve. Like you mentioned the real threat may come from last minute home grown development. -
Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (2001) middle of the record heatwave NYC: 104 (1918) LGA: 99 (2001) JFK: 96 (2001) Lows; EWR: 57 (1948) NYC: 57 (1994) LGA: 61 (1975) JFK: 59 (2004) Historical: 1904 - A flash flood near Pueblo, CO, washed a train from the tracks killing 89 passengers. A bridge, weakened by the floodwaters sweeping through the valley below, gave way under the weight of the train dashing all but the sleeping cars into the torrent drowning the occupants. Rail service was frequently interrupted in the Rocky Mountain Region and southwestern U.S. that summer due to numerous heavy downpours which washed out the railroad beds delaying trains as much as five days. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1918 - Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1924: A tornado caused estimated F4 damage moved southeast from south of Osseo, WI to Black River Falls, WI. One person was killed as a home was leveled and a boy was killed running to the storm cellar near the start of the path. Two people died as farm homes were swept away near the northeast edge of Black River Falls. Damage totaled $200,000 as 50 farms were hit and buildings were unroofed in the town of Northfield. The tornado followed the present route of Interstate 94. 1968: During the late afternoon and evening hours numerous severe thunderstorms developed across eastern South Dakota, but the most powerful storm moved through the Huron area. Wind gusts of an incredible 115 mph swept through the area. The force of the winds blew over a radio tower and also did major damage to area roofs and houses. Not only were the winds very strong, but hail up to the size of softballs pounded the area and four funnel clouds were sighted. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1979: Three different hailstorms struck Spearfish, SD in the same afternoon. One produced baseball size hail and the other two produced hailstones to golf ball size. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1980: Hurricane Allen bottomed out at 899 millibars (26.55 inches of mercury) while moving through the Yucatan Channel in the southeastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Allen was the second lowest pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere up to that time. Allen's winds at the time were sustained at 190 mph. 1983: Sheridan, WY hit 106°, their all-time record high for August. Thunder Bay, Ontario Canada reached an all-time record high of 104.5°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1984 - El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries. Rhode Island had not reported a tornado in twelve years, and three touched down in 24 hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1987 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Goldsboro, NC, with 3.37 inches of rain. Late morning thunderstorms in Arizona produced dime size hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and two inches of rain, at Sierra Vista. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dozen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco, TX, with a reading of 107 degrees. The record high of 88 degrees at Marquette, MI, was their twenty-third of the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with wind gusts to 81 mph reported at McCool, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed over Florida and Washington State, with record highs of 100 degress at Daytona Beach, FL, 101 degrees at Walla Walla, WA, and 103 degrees at Hanford, WA. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Nome, Alaska: Nome records its ninth thunderstorm of the year, more than the city had observed in the previous twenty years combined. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993 continued. The main flood crest reached Cairo, IL where the river is joined by the Ohio River. No serious flooding will occur further south because the river becomes wider and deeper. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1994: Two complexes of thunderstorms developed over southern Minnesota and north central Nebraska. The two complexes then slowly merged with each other in time. Large hail and high winds were common in southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa with hail ranging in size from dimes to golf balls. In Cherokee County, hail damage was reported to many cars in the city of Cherokee by hail two inches in diameter. About 150 cars and 100 homes were damaged by the hail. A tornado also touched down northwest of Sibley in Osceola County, damaging several buildings at a farmstead. At the same time, a car was lifted and thrown 50 feet. Woodbury and Monona Counties were hard hit with high winds, with many winds reported at 60 to 65 mph. The Mapleton area in Monona County was particularly hard hit where a roof was blown off of a car dealership and another roof caved in at an apartment building. Severe thunderstorms struck much of the southern two-thirds of Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. The costliest damage was at Prague, in Lincoln County, where 90 mph winds were reported, resulting in more than $1 million in damages. Another storm struck Thackerville, in Love County, where lightning struck a power pole, traveled through a line to a school, and started a fire that destroyed the school. Hail the size of dimes and quarters was very common across Oklahoma that day, and hail up to golf ball-size fell in Clay and Archer Counties of north Texas. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: A 33-year-old man was struck and killed under a tree at the West Falls Church, VA Metro Station as a severe thunderstorm swept through the area. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 2007: A rare and destructive F2 tornado with winds of up to 135 miles an hour whipped southwestern Brooklyn in New York. The funnel cloud was hidden in heavy rain and thus no pictures were obtained. (Ref. F2 Tornado Hits Brooklyn) 2020: The heavy rains started on the 4th from Tropical storm Isaias that brough 2.53 inches of precipitation to Springfield Park on the 4th and some areas had a lot more rain. This was followed by 4 more days of heavy rainfall in the Richmond area.(Ref. The Richmond Times Dispatch)
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primarily the current Morons that Are Governing America
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72 / 64 smoke from a distant fire today. Clouds and front clear but smoke remains around, otherwise a nice day and the start of a 3 days beautiful weather stretch through Sunday. Great stretch of 96 hours of weather with the smoke susbsiding and another great weekend. By Sunday the flow is coming around and heat is expanding east, setting up a war - hot week next week with potential for strong heat (95+/upper 90s) Tue - Thu. Overall a warm-hot / humid and wetter overall period beyond next week. 8/7 - 8/10 : Near normal / slightly below - dry - gorgeous weather beach, bbq's, outdoors, etc, Heat for some starts Sunday 8/11 - 8/15 : Hot, heatwave for many - strong heat (95+) Tue- Thu. Storms possisble towards Thu/Fri. 8/16 - Beyond : Warm - hot / humid and wetter overall