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Seems like ever since the great 2018 winter, we’ve only had one good winter (2021). 2019 wasn’t too far off, and we just need one more storm to get to average here. Maybe it’s a one decade cycle. Hopefully lol

OH HOLY FUCK NOOO. fucking cell phones.

you're good looks amazing for WNE/CNE...but yeah

Even so, it's a bad pattern by a long shot. Classic -PNA. It's warmed a little yeah, but the 2000s pattern does not favor snow when that >250dm ridge appears in the Pacific. Your map yesterday was really missing that anomaly. Pay attention to it more - it's a pretty good correlation, on both sides. medium range models do have a slight bias.

I would honestly be terrified to ever debate you on any subject. thankfully I am relatively sure we likely agree on a lot of things..

For the ct folks

My March 2023 Total was 2.5” NO THANKS.

You’re still missing my point. We don’t get marginally bad pac patterns anymore because heights are increasing. Ridges are getting stronger. A +400dm ridge in the n pac was freaking unheard of 50 years ago and now it happens multiple times every year! When the pac goes bad it doesn’t go a little bad it goes to hell in a hand basket and overwhelms the pattern with warmth. But you’re acting like that is normal and not part of climate change. You’re not supposed to see a +400dm ridge this often. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say this has nothing to do with climate change then act like something that was unheard of in the past is normal.

Hopefully both lol. March can be a very interesting month with a ton of variability.

Agree.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/messy-tuesday-evening-on-tap.html First & Final Call:

I will turn into a Full On Mass Snow Murderer if this verifies.

Nam freak out posts. Like clockwork

Looks like your in one of the better areas for this.

Why the weenie on my post saying watch the mesos. Don't post Wednesday how surprised you are. Don't want to hear it 4 to 6

Luckily the EpS and GEPS are better

I think im in a good spot for this one, im due, got a dusting for the last storm.

Not a perfect pattern is +450dm -PNA Aleutian ridge and <5000dm in Alaska.. it's an extreme shift. If the PNA were like +100dm, could have snowed marginally? Sure.

High 46, low 20. Looks like no more real cold nights here for awhile.

I don’t know. We’ve been in a bad pacific and Atlantic cycle simultaneously. Past examples of this were low snowfall periods too. But this one was about 20% worse! Do I think Baltimore ever gets back to averaging 23” over a 30 year period…no. But so o think our mean is really about 12” now? God I hope not. And I do think we could still see a cycle where we get a favorable PDO and nao and Baltimore could get a 10 year period it averages 20” But my bigger issue here is some of the people who are the biggest leaders of the “it’s not because of warming” band are also the ones acting like we need a fooking perfect pattern with a epo pna ridge and arctic air to get snow. Which ignores the reality of why was a huge part of our snow climo! They can’t have it both ways. They can’t say we can’t snow without a perfect pacific AND cry “climate change has nothing to do with it” because that would be a freaking change. We didn’t used to need the pacific to be perfect to get snow. Lately yes. But that’s why it’s sucked lately. And some of the same ppl saying this is just cyclical are also the ones saying “it dsnt possibly snow with a less than perfect pattern”. Ok if that true then it is climate change because it wasn’t that way and that’s a change.

Top 5 days over 12 this alone with way BN temps gives this winter so far a solid A

If anyone has a moment, I’d love your thoughts on this “NW-flow snow favorability” map (especially whether it’s capturing the patterns you’d expect). Mobile is a bit rough unless you rotate to landscape. I’ve wanted mountain property for decades, so I’m doing as much pre-analysis as I can haha. http://44.197.87.201:3839

It's just one of those system that doesn't pass the "smell test" when some of these meso models try to sniff a few lines and border on warning criteria...like when we see a over 12" printed out for run-of-the-mill SWFE....NOT one with an incredibly anomalous airmass like last month.

Some good company above 6 inches cover BDL

Meanwhile… https://x.com/maxvelocitywx/status/2020978881654616111?s=46 .