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Followup: here’s the average temp. anomaly of all Decs, Jans, and Febs for -ENSO winters since 1983-4 with a -PNA in Dec: Dec (all had -PNA with avg. -0.99): slightly warmer than normal E US (most pronounced SE) and very cold N Plains/Rockies: Jan (all had +PNA with avg. +0.76): slightly colder than Dec Chicago S and E but Plains not as cold: Feb (all 11 PNAs dropped back down with Feb avg. PNA of -0.19): other than SE/TX, this is easily the warmest of 3 months averaged out in the E 2/3 of US with warmest SC to NE:

Took me 3 hours to go from river head to Commack. The LIE was a total disaster. It’s normally a 35 min ride

We still have enough cold air. We may lose a few inches on changeover events, however offset that with more intense storms with higher moisture. In theory, IF the SE Ridge is truly more powerful, less suppressed events. I don't think we will average less snow than 1970 through 1999, and if we do it will be due to randomness.

Much of this week is actually even a bit below average, except probably towards the end of the week ahead of the next system.

Islip is like 5 miles from the water. West Hampton is much closer to the water and is the best radiator on the island

Looks like it's leftover scraps from the healthy vort in the Desert SW. Could be onto something.

Bro..enough with your BS. That’s where you should be. You’re losing all credibility with your nonsense. More frosts than can count, and a few hard and killing freezes here. GWDLT!

Central part had 10 inches of snow between two systems in March.

It’s breezy out there!

I have to finish reading your outlook Ray (I've gotten through your MJO analysis) but I don't think it can be stated enough how phenomenal of a writer you are, your wealth of knowledge, and how easily you're able to explain things.

This wind is nuts. Was going to take a little break from class work and clean the gutters but I don't think I'll be going on a ladder in this

Talk to me when the EPS shows that

Just sitting back, smiling

Don't look now, but the NAMs want to make it snow Tuesday late afternoon and evening along Mason-Dixon.

Obviously all the details TBD, but it seems like every operational run the last couple days has some big Arctic outbreak happening or on the way Thanksgiving weekend. Out west and Plains favored, but plausible some cold gets to us behind a rainy cutter.

Sleet/graupel/hail shower passing through atm, temp is currently 50⁰

Maybe if you are right on the water like in Long Beach. But ISP is enough distance from the water that they can radiate fairly well. I radiate very well here and I am closer to the water than ISP. How cold any given location gets during radiational cooling relative to their local benchmarks is more a function of how cold the overall airmass is.

Heavy snow in town. Low visibility, easily 1/4sm burst.

Climo is about 4 inches to the 14th here. I would love to see a couple inches first week then sustained cold.

Yeah, no need to worry plus I don’t even really want snow before mid December.

We predicted the triggered ones. Funny shit

I thought even on radiational cooling nights, the water can still influence the air temps nearby. For example, in the fall, on radiational cooling nights, being less than a mile from the water I will be a few degrees warmer than places in east Central Queens, away from both the Sound and the Atlantic. And it's not a matter of more or less urbanity, both locations are basically the same look wise.

This is great research as always. Gives credence to the theory, at least we aren’t burning good snowfall climo with a crap pattern. Will hurt the ski resorts and delay onset of winter, but if it was December 16 and the indices were trending the way they are we’d be in trouble

We do wind pretty well around here lately

Disagree we shall see