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There is some child-like novelty to the first snow and holiday snows, and occasionally interesting events, otherwise its just a beat down of darkness and nasty

The EPS in particular seems to have a westward lean on the OLR map, which would push the RMM mean into the COD. I see less of a signal of this on the GEFS.

Yes. Precipitation wasn't the problem. The region was flooded with too much warmth. It will be interesting to see how things unfold with the upcoming super El Niño.

Op ed. I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh. But what's ironic is that there are fantastic summer events to track - this is after all a weather-related forum ( yeah...right). The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. To that I would suggest the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting. But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well. We've had slow summers. Sure. This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, be we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer. More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter. Although lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic. This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen. To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness. Okay. To each is his or her own. One's preference is one's preference. And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens. Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a more revealing female population ... Disc Golf, standard Golf, boogie-boarding in the surf. None of which can happen between January 5th and that teleconnector maybe-ims for late month that gets can-kicked to February 17th, and ends up screwing someone for some reason. But at least it's dark by 4pm

43 this morning. Another great night sleep, with windows open. Natural a.c, can't beat it.

Bear break-in. These guys are tenacious.

Through May this has been our coldest start to a year since 2015. We should finally see some above normal temperatures starting tomorrow and peaking at around 90 degrees by Saturday. We then see some increasing chances of showers by Saturday night with temperatures cooling back to near normal levels by next Monday.

Through May this has been our coldest start to a year since 2015. We should finally see some above normal temperatures starting tomorrow and peaking at around 90 degrees by Saturday. We then see some increasing chances of showers by Saturday night with temperatures cooling back to near normal levels by next Monday.

Any thoughts to why we still seem to be crashing hard in Phase 7 to COD/weak 8 for MJO? We saw this in 23/24 as well.

This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.

Far superior to arguing 38 or 43 nastiness in January.. or better, coating or 1-2" what a waste

Beautiful weather for summer

Very good job by the modeling of predicting this big WWB well in advance just like they did back in April:

I think this is manifesting as a weakened mid latitude cell via destructive interference. The westward leaning convection results in downstream mid latitude trough, which then results in subsidence downstream of the trough. Where the subsidence is occurring, it competes with where we expect a mid latitude trough from Nino influenced convection over the equator. So the end result is generally a weakened aleutian low as it must compete from subsidence caused by upstream troughing. The long range GEFS starts to bring these troughs closer together, more of what we’d expect in a Nino with a broad mid latitude cell extending east of the dateline.

And then, we go right back to potential near record heat by the 12th-13th according to some of models.

Models continue building a Strong Aleutian ridge in the long range

39F to 67F by 9:40am. Fast recovery.

Low of 57. Wind kept up most of the night which kept us from bottoming out. Chilly walk this morning with the wind.

I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980: 1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018 I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8. The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small. Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.

wtf... Firing Pelley from 60-Minutes is like dynamiting the face of Lincoln off the Rushmore of news journalism. CBS? no shit - You know, this, coming so soon after the Colbert debacle. And that bullshit with Trump instructing them a couple years ago and they all but happily obliged. All of which stinks to high heaven of an organization where you 'say what we want you to say else we'll fascistly wield our will' In an idealistic vision, civility en masse boycotts anything that has CBS finger prints anywhere around it or on it, and points their TV and devices toward different antennas. Let CBS' valuations deteriorate right before the kuntitudinal eyes of the organization's leader. It just folds. That's a flux of unemployment I would be just tickled pink in joy knowing was happening. Then, set some other news/entertainment organization journalism on an ongoing investigation into the lives of all those upper management and exec ranked assholes, showcasing their travails in trying to find a toe-hold on anything in a society that knows what they're really about. Welcome to the deserved sewer of society you pieces of shit.

I thought bears shit in the woods.

I use it now along with the climate reanalyzer for composites We can see why many have been noticing that despite the record developing El Niño, the sensible weather is more Niña-like. Record 100° heat a few weeks ago and the 90s reloading in a few days is probably reflecting the westward lean of the Nino forcing. The cooler days in between are probably more of a Nino-like influence with the recent snows in the New England higher elevations.

Looking pretty dry moving forward.

Heh... reminds me of that meme years ago. Very large aquarium wall, 4" of transparent aluminum glass on the other side of which this giant fluffy polar bear yawns and lazily slides off some prop for rocks and submerges itself in water sloshing like a fat kid in a bath tub. The crowd of 4 to 8 year old onlookers together with their skyscraper moms and dads are in unison, oohs and ah chorus at this specter... Just then, the bear's paddling front feet make it look deliberate as it rotated it's equally giant ass axis pointed directly down the collective line of sight of said crowd, whereby it proceeded to all but instantly transform the clarity of the water into this putrid colored anal pall. Beige ass vomit burst forth like that blow out scene in the film "Deep Horizon"... looked remarkably similar in color to that image above. The chorus of ooh and ahs resolved the note of their song in something like ewes and oophs. Put that in your children's book. Welcome to nature, kid -