All Activity

National low was 31 near Davis, WV........Bradford hit 35. Damn.

One of mine has bad blight at the base. I need to mudpack it or cut it down. I posted some pics in this thread. Have you had flowers yet?

I'm not so sure I'd be looking at solar at this point. True, there's been a big jump in activity the last day or 2, but that's after a big drop. The overall trend is down looking at everything at the link below. Plus, it's too early. If we're rolling ahead hot and heavy come November, imho, then we take a 2nd look at possible curveballs to the forecast. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

I would prefer to run it back with a more neutral WPO.

Last year is not a perfect analog, but it is variable IMO...it's one of my primary analogs.

It’s weird how they do it with the COOPs. The daily data gets entered in for the day at the time it’s reported…so 12z. So all of those COOP highs temps from the hot day on 6/24 get listed as occurring on 6/25. I know they want consistency, but I hate it.

Nice catch. Weird how the nowdata apparently reports it from the previous day.

Little warner and less snowy than last year Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

We should fall around 73.4 (based on some rough estimates), which would put us just outside the top 5. What is really impressive is the next lowest of this century is 2013 at 24.7, which ranks 22nd. We did it mostly through high temperatures remaining lower, with no particularly anomalous lows. That's the way to do August!

Gotta subtract out that 7/31 data. Belchertown had 1.91” and Amherst 1.42”.

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity

What a boring decade.

Brian, do you remember? We got these Chestnut tree saplings when they were like 10" tall. How many years ago was that? I have several growing, but I should have planted them closer for pollination when they get bigger.

china ftw

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

looking at RONI, the MJJ this year is -0.4 and last year it was -0.45. i also don't take the N ATL SSTs into account all that much, I find correlations with our weather pretty weak. even though the heatwave near Japan is stronger, the SSTs off the WC are also higher, so the PDO is about the same. if anything, it was more consistently under -3 last year overall, I think there are a lot of big picture similarities. I don't like to get too granular with LR forecasting

Followup on AEW coming off Africa as early as tomorrow: 12Z UKMET: has a TS that is already recurving before 40W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.3N 32.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2025 144 16.0N 33.0W 1010 37 0000UTC 04.09.2025 156 16.9N 35.4W 1010 40 1200UTC 04.09.2025 168 18.6N 37.0W 1010 38

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

Station locations may have played some role in influencing the numbers. But the 1980s and 1990s were still unique.

Up here on Long Island Erin took the water temps from the high 70s to the high 60s temps recovered to the low 70s which is about normal for this time of year. Hurricanes in the north east derive their energy from the Gulf Stream and will weaken once above the north wall. It’s a function of the long shallow continental shelf.

Mother Nature does it for him.

He stirs

Radar based QPE sucks out here. BTown coop is 84% of normal mtd and very near the 25% of normal contour on this map. Pretty big diff. Amherst coop is 75% of normal mtd.