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There's an obvious tradeoff with both a southern and northern track, I just personally enjoy the wind aspect more. Was hoping to get some of the more extreme outcomes depicted by some morning runs, though verbatim this was likely very overdone.

18z RRFS

Montauk 57mph gust

On my way home from the office now, can’t wait to sit on the patio with a drink.

State of Emergency declared for NYC, Nassau and Suffolk.

What a fabulous day today, wish we had more days like this

Looks like Sunday morning at Bethel Woods is gonna be pretty wet for the Harvest Festival. I hate when we have to prepay the vendor fee for a rain or shine event and it turns out to be a washout

Yeah, efficient mixing was what caught my eye on that sounding. That's going to be problematic. And I'm already getting gusts around 40mph here right now currently. We're looking at tomorrow night on that. Yikes.

Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tonight through the weekend. New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island will likely see 3"-5" of rain with locally higher amounts. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. Winds could gust past 50 mph in the region. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -14.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.471 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.7° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Winds are always over done where I am at. One of these times maybe it will over perform. Looks like moderate minds are calling for 2" in my area. That could over perform as it did with the last storm we had. But with it being so spread out, as stated before, just a good excuse to watch football on Sunday. We got to 70 today. It was a nice day. The leaves have not turned here, just a bit, so this should not ruin the fall colors.

This will increase rain totals as largest totals are on SW side of retro low. This could lead to more tree damage as you get the rains plus winds. Fully leafed out trees too.

I was afraid of that as we are starting to get into the meso range. Looks like a doozy of a storm incoming. Good sign for this winter.

It'll be where heavy rain bands set up that get the higher totals-I'd say Central NJ on north is in the game equally for those.

I saw that too and smiled. There is a near zero chance this verifies, but it is the first fantasy land storm of many for the season. I am cautiously an optimist for this winter.

All sorts of possibilities in that one!!

Wow

Psychologist could run a whole semester on this thread.

18z RGEM is a drencher for LI/CT/NYC

The HRRR-Euro and NAM have a break in the precip for several hours late Saturday especially west of NYC - in other words there probably will not be steady precip the entire event

They never cancel. They did it in 2008 or 2009 in a torrential downpour

Not really the point, other models have it as well. You want the storm to move westward at the latitude of Ocean City NJ or so and ideally before it occludes. The models that showed that earlier had the best winds Saturday night into Sunday.

Eversource CT just posted about hiring contractors.

Always