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Super El Niño this analog year that, anymore…

Praise Jesus!

Next week is looking like some of the best weather since last spring -- dark, dreary, dank, damp and dismal. The sun has overstayed it's welcome. Time to break out the flannel shirts, hockey jerseys and jeans! 85F/DP 66F

no i did not

Which is crap for snow south of 40N

It didn't stop you from commenting in the NE forum, nor did you question it. Lol

fat people water

that map means nothing without the years listed

GGEM is a 5-day disaster

My garden is begging for some sun. This entire week has been gloomy and wet.

This CFSv2 seasonal prediction site, which includes the ENSO SSTa forecasts, hasn’t updated in over 4 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml This is the most recent 10 day mean forecast for RONI: this has a peak at +2.9, compares to peaks of ~+3.5 on some runs from late July, and was suggesting further drops in the peak being likely on later 10 day means due to most of the blue lines being lower than the red ones:

Next week looks like the worst September weather week of a lifetime

That’s going to take a big hit next week.

83 / 61 more sun now

Surprised you didn't post this snowfall map posted in the NE forum that shows AN snowfall in a good part of the Mid Atlantic. You commented on it in the NE forum.

You think this storm system is a sign that we might be seeing the nino couple atmospherically? Looked briefly at the H5 maps and it seems to be almost miller-B ish though as most vorticity is coming from the north to the south (or is the subtropical jet still displaced north due to summer?)

Well.... an unforecasted short rain shower just went through Frederick...

12Z UKMET is at least the 2nd full run with it as a TD but the prior run didn’t do so until hour 36 (tomorrow at 8AM EDT) before dissipating it 48 hrs later; this run has it already doing that as of 2PM EDT today and then moving very little and never becoming a TS prior to dissipating at hour 96: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.09.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 31.9N 34.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.09.2026 12 32.2N 33.6W 1016 20 1200UTC 19.09.2026 24 32.7N 33.2W 1014 22 0000UTC 20.09.2026 36 33.1N 33.4W 1015 22 1200UTC 20.09.2026 48 33.8N 32.9W 1014 27 0000UTC 21.09.2026 60 35.0N 32.6W 1014 25 1200UTC 21.09.2026 72 34.5N 31.9W 1015 27 0000UTC 22.09.2026 84 33.5N 32.7W 1017 25 1200UTC 22.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

You'd probably want the High to start a bit more south as the surface winds would probably be more easterly than ne'ly, which would hurt the lower levels. Plus there's no slp off the coast to pull in a northerly component to the surface flow. This knowledge comes from age.

WB Can. Day 7 total; it is going to be a long winter of tracking ahead...

and thanks again

GGEM dropping a casual 6-8”