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In a way, yes... but the northern edges look to be the same or even eroded slightly more. We need a few more tics to have this be anything but congrats NYC cop

Blocking is easing up to make this storm go slightly further north. Now the interior areas of NY look like the jackpot. Nothing wrong with a few inches though.

But psychologically?

I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch.

You won’t melt much

Although it's nice to see snows again I do hope we can score at least one classic benchmark track this winter. Unfortunately although we're getting a lot of help on the Atlantic side, the fast and furious Pacific jet is still preventing those classic KU NESIS tracks of the past. If the jet can relax even briefly we might get a chance

Id take the 0z Euro run just as currently modeled for Sunday and NYD, but hopefully it'll shift south a bit to get many others in on it too.

Oh the idiot is back. Hi idiot. Did you bother to read where I said “FWIW” and “guru” (being sarcastic)? Nevermind, you’re too much of an airhead to comprehend something that complicated. Man, you are really stupid. No clue, none….

Kinda a given. Warm nose always wins out Real mess coming

5.75" here and -Sn, radar looks paltry, but maybe we squeeze 6 inches. Id say at least 12:1 ratios. Congratulations Dryslot, glad I don't have to drive to KLEW area today!

So the guy you think is a quack is now correct because of this bold prediction

The Kuchera map

FWIW, The stratospheric guru Judah Cohen thinks there’s going to be a major strengthening of the SPV in January

What map? The forecast for the dec 23rd event?

This could be a bad storm in terms of freezing rain, and some wind, and models look like the temps on most of models not breaking the freezing mark until Sunday.

Its pivoting to the west some now.

Might wind up with north of 15+ based on this. Today Snow, mainly before noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Can you explain why exactly this is going to be a very high ratio snow other than “it’s going to be very cold”?

You nailed that map in your posts, it's the weeniest map of them all.

It's warm and a little windy this morning

Already is

I think it's notable that while some aspects of this system didn't play out as planned, the IT location was modeled really well by a lot of the models for several days. There was not a whole lot of flux about where it was going to line up. The mid-coast through Jeff had been the focus for a while. Meanwhile, power and internet keep flickering ftl. Looking forward to daylight to get a better sense of things.

Looks like that band is finally moving. But still.

That’s awesome Jeff. I knew someone was gonna get 18+.

need new thread. who wants to ginx it?