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I’m thinking 2-4” here…maybe 1-3”. Well see how quickly things cool.

WB EURO AI 1pm and 7pm Sunday

18z Euro at least has the storm off the coast which it didn’t have at 12z. Progress.

WB 18Z AI EURO ( prob. For 6 inches or more.)

I'm not disagreeing with you. Maybe my constant search for cold and snow has given me cold bias algorithms. Is there still two trains of thought on this or has there been some type of agreement. From what I'm gathering the Europeans don't seem to agree with this but everything i've read, is a few hours to a day old so maybe a lot has changed.

Vort is further west this run, which is good. Better ridging north of Montana too.

18z Euro AI 10:1 snowmap just for fun .

What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt

Eps improved. Still snowing over us to when it ends at 144hrs. This compared 12z to 18z.

Well all the more reason to say weigh the ensembles more for the weekend storm through Th. I agree with the post that once it went to a southern slider it locked in.

Probably more of a coastal hit but still something to track. The signal is there. If come thursday-friday we see this still showing up then game on.

I mean it was pretty great for most, the storm and the whole month.

It moves like a tortoise.I like it. If it does the old loopy loop or retrogrades on the next panel, I'll take.

A lot of phantom snow. We've had 2 inches since the one and only big one. A week ago, today was supposed to be a blizzard. Call me skeptical...

Eps improved

Aifs is likely the ceiling for this one imo. In some regard, I do agree with Dave. An 18z gfs seems most probable...a little less digging with the sw and a more progressive system like we have seen much of the winter. Still a respectable snowfall. But as I noted and Heisy as well earlier today, some of the more progressive solutions on the models are not far at all from a bomb that gets captured (see ICON and aifs) and goes from respectable to MECS/HECS. Too early to say one way or the other....alot of moving pieces in play.

Another South Coast win and Maine loss. Sigh.

18z Euro AI ensembles looked good for Sunday night.

Yeah I’m not talking about the specifics like that, I’m talking about the general Synoptics of where the storm would be.

rain would probably just soak into the pack anyway and bullet proof it

At this point it's whatever. If it happens awesome, if not then spring is well on its way. Playing with house money on a solid B winter.

I'm gonna have to disagree with that. Euro AI was one of the last models holding on to the idea of back-end heavy snow for most of MD

Ill take a moderate event like 4-6. Enough to fall and be meaningful, should get us close to average, and wont be a pain in the ass to get rid of.