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Same here

I didn’t look carefully until writing the post, but once I looked deeper, Hugo and Fran stood out as truly anomalous beast storms. First, once AOML resolved Hazel’s landfall intensity at 115 knots, it left Hugo as the sole strongest landfall (120 kt) north of Florida on the east coast dating back to the 1850’s! https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html Fran’s landfall was near the top intensity for NC northward. The damage video surveys following Fran are reminiscent more of the major GOM landfalls than a typical east coast hurricane. The videos show rows of homes that were completely swept away Opal and Ivan style by a 12-ft storm surge/violent wave action on North Topsail Beach. Future research for me would include why it’s not so hard to get a Category 2 landfall in NC, but crossing that threshold into major territory takes a special alignment with half-centuries in between.

IT'S BAZ MATE NOT JIM

yup, dust control !

Same here. About 5 minutes of pour and that was it.

When's the last time we had a legit fall tornado outbreak? The last few late-season outbreaks have been in December.

IMO, this summer wasn't that hot.

I think they made it down to 44 this morning.

Made it to 70.2 today and the DP is down to 51. Like everyone else, this is akin to winning the weather lotto in August. It'll be interesting to see if Canaan breaks 32 at some point this week.

Sun is out , just dumping at home, will be over very soon, but I will take it !

Euro is pretty wet Friday. Here come the drums.

All y'all young whippersnappers LOL. My son is 34 this year.

74.3/48.8 at 4 pm on August 25th, I'll take it!

It's dead Jim.

same...wtf

I want to see this in 4 weeks when I know it is here to stay and will only get colder. End of August is waaay too early to get excited. October 90s are a thing you know!

@GaWx Here are the majors (Cat ≥3) that me and someone on Twitter forecasted on DMs, taking into account the LRC and other theories: Erin: 160 mph Cat 5 (over water; EC/Atlantic Canada effects) Major 2: 145–150 mph Cat 4 (TX–LA landfall window ~Sep 16 OR Sep 25) Major 3: 140–145 mph Cat 4 (GA–SC landfall window mid-Oct) Major 4: 115–125 mph Cat 3 (Bermuda grazer/near-miss) Major 5: 115–120 mph Cat 3 (FL Panhandle/Big Bend late Oct) Major 6: 135–140 mph Cat 4 (open-ocean MDR major, recurves)

Gotcha. Looked like your area was getting hit good yesterday on radar...glad you picked up some this am!

All I know for a fact is that Gabrielle will likely go to a weaker storm A 10-day lull in early Sep (since the hurricanes have fucked off to Ibiza again) doesn’t tank ACE when the LRC and numerology show two more Cat 4 corridors still ahead (Gulf mid or late-Sep, SE coast/Atlantic Oct). Erin’s cold wake is a meme, plus the nonce made the SST configs even better anyways. Mixes out fast and doesn’t touch the main landfall lanes. If we get 4–5 backend majors, 190 ACE is totally in reach

You can also be off center a bit and be out in the white stakes a lot quicker too.

what a crummy looking "line" lol

We scored big. First we got .09" this morning and with a shower last hour another .21". I don't know how far that would get into the soil but now I have the sprinklers on. Maybe with a bit of moisture in the topsoil this will help a bit more. By the way 2 of those chestnut seedlings we planted several years ago are doing great.

Record chill possible Wednesday morning at at least 15 sites below From Jeff Berardelli

I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, JMA, and UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm. 12Z UKMET for example has a TD from right off of Africa moving WSW. When I first saw this on the UKMET, I figured it was likely going to end up as a ghost since I thought it was the only op with it. But then I saw the other models and am now wondering. 12Z UKMET: EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N 17.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 31.08.2025 132 17.6N 17.6W 1010 25 1200UTC 31.08.2025 144 17.3N 19.7W 1010 24 0000UTC 01.09.2025 156 17.2N 22.2W 1011 23 1200UTC 01.09.2025 168 16.7N 25.6W 1012 25

You can dub one and get 200 yards with the current state if fairways.