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I think that’s accurate. There are more ways to get some snow from a multiple wave solution but less chance of a huge storm. A more amplified wave introduces a MECS+ potential but a total fail if that one wave misses. I’ll take my chances with an amped up monster storm. Another 3-4” of snow won’t change my opinion of this winter at all. But a 10”+ storm definitely would.

So you're saying it's gonna happen. Cool. You can start the thread,

I saw before Dark on Resortcams La follette was already getting some decent sized Flakes. I noticed your area showed no Snow on MRX Graphic. I hadn't checked but did the NBM show no Snow for that Area ?

Stoutland gone sadly

Wolud you agree that the split between guidance is either a low risk, low reward solution (multiple weak waves) vs. a high risk, high reward solution (amplified follow up)? Or is that an improper, inaccurate way to word it?

We’ve had a heavy band come through that dropped close to 1/2 in already.

NOT THE MAMA!

The biggest issue I think the guidance has to resolve is how consolidated the pacific energy ends up. Guidance is split between multiple weaker wave solutions and two wave (lead weak wave followed by a more amplified follow up) solution. There are ways we could “win” in either permutation but until it’s known which we are dealing with the details can’t be known.

Some light rain/snow mix is falling at my place now too

Down to 38.5. If we can get some moisture it might get interesting.

Got it. With the Pacific seemingly opening up, the models are going to have their hands full with vorts shooting all over the Conus, so I have low confidence in any model, moreso than usual.

I don't know how i missed BDL. I bet it was during the time that 1996-2003 was almost completely missing and they added it back i remember Wiz and I were talking about that. 14.7 BDL

lol

My Quick burst of snow has now turned into a light ice mist with no real flakes anymore. it looks like there is a band headed our way if it does not fall apart.

Anyone see this?

Yea I think the idea is legit. But where the snow zone ends up, whether this ends up one stronger wave or multiple weaker boundary waves…major details that determine whose backyards get snow won’t be known for a while. But I agree confidence is increasing in the general flavor of the period.

@mitchnick but at this range I’m not married to any idea. I think this is a legit threat but we need to get closer to 100 hours before I’ll even try to get specific about it. And even then know further adjustments will happen. We’re still in the “this is interesting I’ll keep an eye on it” range.

Got it. Anything else? You wanna take it look at it, im editing it now so i can change the lines, ill default to you guys since you are much more familiar with this storm, especially in that area. I don't even remember it. I am bringing the 20" line across like you mentioned.

And this general look is now within 10 days, lowering the chances of yet another rug. Can still lose it, but the idea of a wave undercutting the decaying block has been on the ensembles for at least a few days now.

At this range it was teasing us. But this is not the same situation or setup. It’s more similar to the Jan 25 storm and the AI did very well with that.

Got snow falling at my house now. 18z NAM 3km give many 1”+!

yea, but the real question is what is your 3 model average?

How did the AI Eps look before the storm last Sunday?

Feb 2020 had above average snowfall here (24.9”, Feb average is 20”). The worst Feb here was 2024 (strong nino), which featured a paltry 0.8”

And to think we're neighbors, too, so we can suffer together.