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Sure looks like this will be our heaviest rain event since Helene along the escarpment. I just wonder if there will be any new landslides where the soil is still loose from last time.

Question for @Sey-Mour Snow @weatherwiz @CT Rain How much would CT benefit from having its own mesonet? Does being a small state cut against its need? I know we already have several airport stations around the state, but would a mesonet aid in long term data collection and forecasting in a way that would outweigh the cost of setup and maintenance?

Wow, what a complete turnaround overnight in the last 12 hours. Isaias was looking very ill organized about 10 hrs ago, but I am impressed this morning. Unfortunately, this obviously increases the chnces for more severe impacts at the coastline. That radar from Mobile shows quite a nasty eyewall. Here is hoping it weakens in the next 12 hrs, but now the NHC sounds less sure that this wont make landfall as a major hurricane.

Picked up 0.10" of Iowa's scraps early this morning.

Nam is mid morning now

This is probably more apparent to those with background in weather/forecasting, but I'm curious: is the outflow from Simon potentially disrupting some of the effect of the sheer on the western side? I know the outflow affects Isaias' ventilation, but does it also have an independent effect on the actual environment of sheer?

This won't weaken as much as Lilly...that went from 145mph to 100mph at LF.

HAFS A/B yesterday did an excellent job on showing Isaias deepening in the last 12 hr and its current intensity. For the past 2 years these models have shown significant improvement over the previous TC models. I seem to recall last year the HWRF and HMON were to be discontinued, but that has not happened IMHO, there are already too many operational models the exist or available. More is not always better, and too many can distract from proper subjective forecast skill. You get *one* model that is an outlier, and that can sway you away from a better forecast. Also, the less scrupulous people on social media looking for clicks/like will often post the model that shows the worse case scenario, even if it obviously out to lunch. That makes our job that much harder because often we have to spend an inordinate amount of time debunking wild or bogus forecasts. I know some are not thrilled with the NAM and it derived products ending soon, but eventually we do need to move forward and the RRFS replaces the NAM. The NAM as a model and early name, ETA, has been around for 33 years, so time to move on. Also, from the big Nor'easter last month, the RRFS was too aggressive in showing a tropical transition for this storm, so that suggests it may not do well for TCs. Has anyone been following the RRFS as how it has handled Isaias so far?

Of those storms, Lili is probably the best match/analog, as that happened during a high shear/low activity/el nino year. Opal and Dennis happened in low shear/hyperactive years, so they aren't really good matches.

It won’t be that coherent a system by the time it gets up here. Shear will eventually get to it. I agree that these big N Gulf systems usually have a Part 2 big impact area way further north like Camille 1969 and Ida but that’s when it can remain a coherent consolidated system. Up here it looks more like a strung out frontal system.

Appreciate the input. I’m expecting 60 and cloudy at best if I try to host our outdoor party. Fire pit will be roaring, but I’m sure the older generation will still be cold.

Oh yes Dennis. That underwent rapid weakening leading up to landfall as well, after rebounding big time once off Cuba.

If it rains next Sunday I quit.. $2000 for fall baseball 8 tournaments at this age they only play Saturday for seeding then Sunday single eliminination.. so far 6 tournaments in and 5 have been rained out on Sundays (semis and championship), one tournament completely washed out, and this Sunday is 50/50..

The point some of us have been making is the double standard being applied regarding the concern for the attendees in Tuscaloosa vs that for those in Atlanta: Tuscaloosa: SATURDAY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS, COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Atlanta: SATURDAY SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. ————— As one can see, the forecast is actually much worse for the afternoon gametime in ATL for Duke/GT than it is not just for the evening gametime in Tuscaloosa but even during the tailgating time in Tuscaloosa well before the game even starts! So, gusts to 50 with possible thunderstorms/heavy rain and even a slight chance for a tornado in ATL for the game itself vs gusts only to 30, much lighter rain, and no thunderstorms in Tuscaloosa during the entire PM tailgating period well before the game even starts! @PhiEaglesfan712

There will be no remnants. It will be just a simple low pressure system on a front with some tropical moisture. Only the Euro give NJ more than in inch and that is only in isolated spots.

Euro is now faster-other models are evening....

I still like Choctawhatchee Bay for max surge of 10'.

Wish I knew. best guess is early afternoon

Surge is always tricky to nail down, but while the inhibiting factors will help, there's actually a decently large areas of strong winds on the eastern side of the storm and I believe the northern gulf is slightly more susceptible to surge due to the shallow continental shelf. Likely won't be devastating, but I can see areas like Destin seeing a fairly significant storm surge.

Looks like an angel with the center being the head and the flight path being the body

Flash flooding could become a concern tomorrow night as those feeder bands train over the same areas. HRRR shows these and some other modeling as well

October 9 1970: Montevideo sets a record low high temperature of 35. 1938: Forest fires on the 9th and 10th claim 21 lives in northern Minnesota. For Friday, October 9, 2026 1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 9 Fri World Egg Day 9 Fri World Post Day 9 Fri Leif Erikson Day 9 Fri International Beer and Pizza Day 9 Fri National Digitool Day 9 Fri National Moldy Cheese Day 9 Fri National Pro-Life Cupcake Day 9 Fri National C60 Day 9 Fri Curious Events Day