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  2. LakePaste25
    Classic CAD. In theory it should be more likely in El Niño due to less SE ridging.
  3. NEG NAO
    at least 1/4 of it frozen - probably more so in January
  4. SouthCoastMA
    Ha forgot there was a Bob Dylan cameo in that
  5. IronTy
    39F here in Calvert which ironically was the same temp as the cabin this morning according to my game cam.
  6. Mount Joy Snowman
    Low of 36. Perfect Fall week ahead.
  7. GaWx
    Is the offshore E US strong low bringing down the cool air into the E US this entire week likely related to the very strong Nino? 0Z 10/12 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: no offshore storm and thus no cool air pinned in E US: 0Z 10/18 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: much cooler E US in reality associated with offshore strong storm working in tandem with 3 Canadian highs keeping cool dry Canadian air pinned in E US: Cool air this week E US thanks to the above pattern consistent with Euro Weeklies’ significantly cooler change: (had been warm on runs from Oct 12-13 when no offshore storm)
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    For now sure. But once the STJ goes off the scale it’s going to get very wet. December and January likely over 5” each. .
  9. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah...maybe. Don't know. Parsing out the momentum like that over years - that's harder ( at least for me ) to balance sheet that because circulation modes get seasonally mutilated by winter and summer for one. But, the 2023 spring planetary temperature explosion phenomenon is super-climatological in nature and really appears to have taken place mutually exclusive of the ENSO cycling. We need to bear in mind that the sea system and the atmospheric system, en masse, burst .5 C upward in all dimensions, all at once. That in and of itself is still not very satisfyingly explained ...though there are some compelling ideas. sure. But anyway, that took place prior to the end of a cool ENSO, and a couple months before the onset of an ... interim warm phase that frankly I feel was some sort of "absorption event" to try and eat that heat and didn't reflect a truer Nino atmospheric circulation mode outside of the immediate tropics...maybe lower subtropical bands... but that's farmer John's supposition. Anyway, detonating an entire planet like that doesn't lend to stable predictions.
  10. straphanger
    We could use the break since the last month and change have been rather wet. Nearly 5" at my station for the last 31 days. At least I can keep the sprinklers on a bit longer with the projected AN temps into November. I wonder what the chances are that NYC doesn't see a freeze until December at this point.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    We’ll see if we can get a PV split to shake out in our favor. Like I have been saying the Arctic isn’t totally cooked right now, so cold air will be lurking. That’s why I’m excited for this winter, I think it has some real surprises in store. Plus from a pure weather perspective, the STJ amped storms will be interesting in their own right even if they are mainly rain. .
  12. pasnownut
    happy fall..yall. 37 noted on digi car thermo w/ spotty frost noted on travel to work this am. 35 was lowest seen in my normal cold spot. decent amount of roofs and shaded lawns had frost on shaded north and west facing. Some mesquitos likely did not make it, but id say not hard enough to wipe em out. Just enjoying fall, while we likely have to wait a while for decent winter weather. All good.
  13. EastCoast NPZ
    Low of 30 according to nearest PWS. Very frosty again.
  14. Terpeast
    Low of 34 again, with some patchy frost
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, right.......but even considering that logic, you would think that there would be some additional give relative to 2023, whereas that former regime even more deeply entrenched....I mean, El Nino is stronger...PDO is less negative and the warm pool is further east. This is why I believe there is more wiggle room for a window later in the season.
  16. SUNYGRAD
    I was at the Woolly Worm Festival this weekend and here it is-----
  17. Met1985
    29 degrees again here this morning with a heavy frost.
  18. Typhoon Tip
    Yup ... and I realize we've been over this aspect before. But these signals don't turn an entire planetary system on it's head that quickly. There's momentum stored in the other mode and takes time to move away. It's sort of analogous to a seasonal change ... ex, we don't observe Aug 15 --> Nov 15 on a straight 45 deg downward angular trajectory. It goes back and forth while accumulating the lower height state over that span... in theory. We can always count on a complete systemic rollback to July 15th on Xmas Eve! So, as we go from a cool-->warm(vice versa) ENSO state, the atmosphere will tend to a kind of 'non-Markovian' echo of the form mode. It complicates matters further these days when/since previous modes became increasingly more disrupted ..heh. However, in this case since the -PDO is significantly correlated to the -ENSO, and the PDO is really a reflection of the longer term SS wind stressing in the quasi-coupling of the air-sea environment out there (therefore, atmospheric mode-), there's decent enough confidence that we actually had an NINA hemisphere last winter.
  19. Wxtrix
    2 frosty mornings in a row, 32 Sunday morning and 30 this morning.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol
  21. MJO812
    Relying on February to produce is a bad sign for the winter. Hopefully we get lucky with an event this winter
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just speaking of the image Chris posted.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.
  24. dendrite
  25. BooneWX
    36.5 at mi casa. It was clearly closer to freezing outside of my neighborhood though because I saw frost as soon as I got a half a mile from the water. Barring any super strong front, it’ll prob be mid-Nov before my station sees freezing or lower. Quite a bit of smoke on the water though (hits guitar solo), so the step down process is underway.
  26. kdxken
    We can hope
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