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Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4.

Looks like a chance of scattered thunderstorms Sunday evening - early Monday. Mesos are picking it up. Another chance at some severe weather. Been an active summer for sure.

And there ya go...not sure how much that happened in 97-98, but gotta imagine it was a factor?

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @Rjay Just a reminder

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2 +1 +.8 +.7 -.3 +.7 +1.6 +1.6 +1.7

@Spartmanentetaining read today for sure. After a long stretch of boring weather it’s nice to have an active forecast discussion. Joe Strus wrote the afternoon discussion, he seems to be winter weenie.

CANSIPS has the El Nino much further west than it's developing.

WPC has lowest rainfall totals where the Euro has the highest.

I'm in the same boat as you, wooded forest surrounding the house creating shade. The Flood brands DO just as good a job as the expensive stuff, IMO. I've used them for years, and about every third year I'm redoing the process, just at a cheaper price point.

Wow - likely wont happen at least here if its convective in nature - but that 1.96 would be more than the past 6 weeks combined.....

I prefer back loaded winters because it means less time til the next cold season. Long as snow is on the ground for Christmas and New Years Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

And now for the cherry on the top... someone hit a skunk or scared it.... air is dead still....just closed all the windows. Dank and stinky comes to mind.

Perfect day tomorrow.

^having the Canadian ridging extending all the way to the west coast is a subtle difference but a key one. If the Aleutian low goes giga (which is what I’d lean toward), that’ll push the ridge inland and just flood Canada with pac puke

DCA: -0.3 NYC: -0.7 BOS: -0.7 ORD: -0.5 ATL: +0.2 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.3 SEA: +0.3

Stopping by to deliver the new August CanSIPS (ok time to go back into hiding now, see y'all in December I guess)

Checks out based on Frederick's luck lately

Onto Ughust

Last month of meteorological summer! Home stretch!

Tuesday, August 4, 2026 11:38AM EDT Skies continue to clear from west to east following this morning’s rain and storms. Much of the region generally picked up between half an inch and an inch of rain. As we go through the afternoon temps will rise into the lower 90s w/ dewpoints getting into the mid/upper 70s leading to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE beneath the 6.5-7 C/km MLLRs. As the unseasonably strong shortwave approaches from the west it will most likely bring with it a complex of thunderstorms congealing into a severe MCS. At the same time, a couple of supercells may develop over the region ahead of the main cluster and with near 60kts of EDWD and effective SRH in excess of 250m2/s2 these have the potential of producing strong to intense tornadoes. SPC has us under a 10% CIG1 tornado risk to account for this. We are also under a 60% CIG1 wind risk resulting in a level 4 out of 5 Moderate risk of severe weather. With the high CAPE, decent DCAPE (1000+ J/kg) and high Pwats around 2 inches, the MCS could bring widespread 65 to 80+ mph wind gusts across the region with even higher gusts in any embedded microbursts resulting in widespread and potentially long-lasting power outages along with major tree damage and some structural damage to boot. Stay tuned to the evolving weather situation and take all the necessary precautions.