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This setup is sick.. Nobody needs a wellness check because someone is pumped about a potential blockbuster. This is a weather forum, not group therapy.

I will try to keep my junk and imby posts in this thread going forward. Sorry I get excited about big storms. And it has been a decade.

Well now.. that sounds not good haha After the storm departs late Sunday night, frigid temperatures may pose a risk of hypothermia, phone and shortage of supplies across the region.

What? There are no concerns. We are getting a nice storm. Be positive not negative

It’s happening!!! Or is it???

I think the thread title should make a reference to Charlotte's Web and Fern. Maybe call it "Some Pig!"

It’s only Wednesday lol

I think that’s the upper bound solution. Prolific overrunning followed by a defined, developing costal with CCB action in eastern areas. That is how someone scores 20. Hope it’s right, but that’s looking less likely after 12z IMO

Guidance is kind of differing between Dave and SNH vs more near MA CT border.

Done!

That wind could bump us from a 2 to a 4 or even worse.

Get your memes, whining, and side tangents ready for the real banter thread! Please try to use this thread to keep the other one more readable.

Let's aim for a sleet record:

Get your memes, whining, and side tangents ready for the real banter thread! Please try to use this thread to keep the other one more readable.

This doesn't have that kind of upside IMO. The trough phasing as far west as it is does introduce some issues...to get the kind of prolific qpf necessary for those kinds of totals (30"+ in many areas) would require an amplitude that in this case would take the primary to our west...and mean we would miss out on the snowfall from the upper level passage. No second part of the storm. We'd get the prolific WAA thump but now that last 12" you need to reach those 2016 epic totals. If the storm were to revert to a less amplified solution which could keep the track under us (like the prolonged cold smoke euro solutions of 24 hours ago) we could max out the second half of the storm but would not get the prolific WAA snows needed to reach those 30" type totals. 2016 was absolutely perfect in that the storm was amplifying in the perfect locations to maximize everything. We don't have that here. I think a 20" event is on the table somewhere if we max out THIS SPECIFIC setup...not saying that is most likely...but possible...and I will leave it to you all to debate what a 12-20" type event falls under in terms of classification...but it's short of that biblical 2016 1996 type level. I don't see this as having that upside for the reasons mentioned above. But anyone who kicks a foot of snow out of bed given the last 10 years...needs their head examined.

Position if anyone wants to follow it: https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL74

Between this and earlier man, there's two full pages detailing the dgz and respected mets are banging the drum over rates, yes, you're wrong; maybe read the thread? Good grief.

@SnowenOutThere Go ahead and create it. Call it Jan 24-26 JV Forecasting/Banter or something. Gives me a chance to shine.

Yeah feels a lot more likely that the models will factor in the strong arctic high/blocking and how dry it is and create sharper northern cutoffs than there be a temp thing going on. The cold is legit.

You might be right. My hesitation comes from uniqueness of this setup. Perhaps I’m wrong in the old SWFE rule of thumb of 6-8” then slot. Perhaps it’s not applicable here. The Euro ripping in dry air at 500 (maybe that’s above everything and doesn’t matter) and the 750 and 800 center taking a trip to Montreal just don’t scream widespread 12”+ to me.

Haven’t seen median higher than mean too often but I guess it’s not a huge difference. Is there a cluster of members south or way north driving mean lower?

Actually, the upper low is slowing down and bit and models are converging on that. FWD NWS is upping their timing on the cold air and beginning impacts in the afternoon Friday. This still looks like a predominately sleet storm with snow on the back end.

The bigger issue is that the critical wave is near the western boundary of the HRRR.

Less than 72 hours before the event, I honestly don't think I will be surprised whatever the outcome is. A few days ago I was thinking all snow above I-85 and while that doesn't look likely now, it still wouldn't totally shock me. I believe the next 48 hours in the modeling are going to offer up a few surprises. What a strange setup all of this is. Might as well enjoy the ride y'all! I

I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party.