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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'm in no way implying a 1995 repeat...I understand how different the western PAC is and how much we have warmed...I get it. Just saying ENSO in a vacuum is a decent match. -
it's amazing how drama seeking changes whence one owns the responsibility, huh
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
JTA66 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
12z Euro says, "what storm??" It was over when the NYC and MA forums started threads on this. -
Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That resembles (but is still less) than WPC's updated map, which took a big step back with their latest update. -
yup... that's been a glaring aspect. don't usually get something on the EC while the west is plummeting - this 12z Euro run may be onto something. i mentioned earlier that a contraction s is possible but ...heh, not sensing much acknowledgement. wonder why haha
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Euro AI looks better.. and ya probably about that
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Just been kind of sitting back but I think the end result is a modest storm with a bit of wind and up to an inch of rain. Not anything we haven’t seen in the last few weeks.
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I swear that was just voodoo logic. I don't think their physics were similar. But that was what, like 15 years ago? lol.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The forecast winter EMI from JAMSTEC is very 2018 like...along with 1995 and 2021. The newest El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) guidance from JAMSTEC has also remained fairly consisted in it's depiction of an EMI value of around -.20 to -.30 during the boreal winter season. This range is similar to the EMI analogs of 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, which is supported by the similarity in both the placement (near 140 longitude) and the intensity of the respective subsurface cold pool analogs relative to 2025. -
Literally no market for those since 2021
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Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
moneypitmike replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
He speaks the truth. If you don't want to report the tenths, get a thermometer that doesn't report them. -
what ever happened to the UKIE and Euro following each other.. worlds apart
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Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
moneypitmike replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
bncho replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well, what did we expect? The Mid-Atlantic is back to the rug pulls and cliff jumpers we know and love! -
Just another variation on the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern stream storm tracks theme which has been dominant since 2018-2019 with the much faster Pacific Jet.
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"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.
Stormlover74 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
We bought a snowblower last year. still in the box- 174 replies
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
WxUSAF replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Euro is basically some light rain tomorrow afternoon and evening and that’s the whole deal -
The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
LongRanger replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
DIPAs. The closest we're gonna get is Miller Lite. -
Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx
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I did it all for the Ukie?
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To each his own. Either way, the weather has been exceedingly boring for a while now so it kind of sucks that any semblance of excitement the models showed is gone now. Here's to an amazing winter.
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There is a significant chance that 18z will show almost no precip in PA despite the 4 inch amounts shown there.
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Actually a hurricane can scoot out to sea, no thank you
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Superstorm replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania