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I missed Jan 2016 when I was living in Austin. Not the first time.

This is 00z NAM

That goes into a weekday morning.

I really think it's time to stop using globals. They're not going to pinpoint everything down to the mile. GFS is great, but it's time to switch to the mesos.

Anybody feel like these totals are exaggerated in many areas? Temps are marginal. Ratios??

2/22 00z GFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-2/24 10:1 Snow

Do we really care about the gfs at 18 hours out

GFS actually looks to have walked qpf back (just slightly) in NYC area, and tighter gradient

Gfs has a nice band near coastal NJ not too far south from NYC. Sometimes bands end up elsewhere than modeled.

Ah that's frustrating! Happened to me several years ago on a family vacation to Cancun. While sitting by the pool, I was scrolling through this forum and was secretly annoyed that I was missing out on snow (I think CPK received around 10 inches). As for this one, I was originally supposed to fly out on a business trip this weekend but a few months ago I pushed it to next weekend, pheww!

Especially coastal NJ. Insane.

Qpf shield def SE

Probably should depend more on short range models now. I don't think GFS is as good as the short range models

Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting

Norlun from Frederick through Springfield to Waldorf would be awesome!!!! Event with such details and bands of snow that will boom and bust over such short distances

Interesting bit of information from the Joe and Joe show this evening is that the European model isn’t the same model we are accustomed to. It’s more of the control version, there where changes made to it and isn’t the same model it was a couple of years ago

"overflow error"

18:1, 24.4"

33.4/30.9

Head up to the airport to get some good gusts. Wide open up there.

Well, this GFS run certainly ain't going to be one to back down. Incredible stuff into NYC.

Gfs is slowly slipping east every run

FWIW the HRDPS (hi-res version of the RGEM) is signficantly better than its lower res parent. It’s still on the lower end of the models but it has warning criteria snow for the entire region.