All Activity

Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.

Thanks. I think everyone who only views the forum on their phones doesn't get why I took issue. He has a HUGE signature ranting about climate change which you have to see every time he makes a post, and then complains when someone responds to it with the passive aggressive "we're not supposed to talk about that here" BS. This is also a tactic not confined to this specific case. I've brought this up before and taken issue with it. That side of the argument is deploying a passive aggressive and very deliberate tactic taking advantage of our forum rules about politics. They find a way to say what they want to say, push it as far as it can go. blur the lines... then when you respond back directly they deploy the "were not supposed to talk about it" and the whole conversation gets shut down. They got to make their point and then the discourse is over. If the mods what to have a no climate change discussion rule I am all for it, but then any reference at all to climate denial (including in a signature) should be deleted immediately. The members who continue to try to circumvent or be cute with these rules should get warned and eventually banned the same way I would get banned if I continue to respond to them. This isn't just an Americanwx issue...I've observed this same exact tactic from the same political ideology across the internet in other online communities.

Chris has said that.

With this record breaking and possibly even record shattering weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on @snowman19+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day @Stormchaserchuck1typical cooling lag for the E US after an SSW this time of year: CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

but the stratosphere!

glad we don't live there if you are fortunate today, your travels will take you beyond the dullness of your locale

incredibly early in the season to be seeing this pattern.

One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. Speculatively: the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ... For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, an integral that will end up containing examples both subtle and gross. It may not be overly obvious at all times... Sometimes yes, other times no. But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say). Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics. If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers, lest the manic state drives them to voting self-destructively for the wrong people. haha. No but (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone.

You're right, we don't want to clutter this thread up with climate change nonsense 52 degrees along the Mason-Dixon line this morning.

In the seasonal mean? No....I don't think so. I mean, technically speaking, it's basin-wide now, but I would certainly consider it heavily eastern biased...it will probably grow somewhat more evenly distributed around mid season before perhaps collapsing back eastward early next spring.

Would basin wide still be on the table?

I'm saying the 3 years since 2023. It has been all downhill from there. Both 2023 teams were false peaks-- Orioles 24 season had a winning record but sucked the second half and embarrassingly mentally feckless in the Wild Card. Ravens 24 season had blown leads and obviously the Andrews drop in the playoffs Orioles 25' season: Awful. Ravens 25' season: Awful Orioles 26 season: New manager, inherited mentally weak mentality, failed to capitalize on momentum each time, .500 team, missed playoffs. Ravens 26 season: New HC, inherited bad mentality--no dawg in 'em Looks to be a .500 season missing the playoffs. One embarrassment after another and nobody has known how to win. Now in both cases...both new manager and new HC could very well do better in 2027...but time will tell. 2027 is gonna be a defining year for Baltimore sports: Either we'll finally be released from this prison of mediocrity, or we'll be suffering for more years to come.

No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November.

Yes, that is the dual forcing I have been alluding to...it's from about 130-150 degrees longitude....I think early on, the eastern node will dominate, then we will see more variability beginning beyond the ides of January, as that western node starts to constructively interfere with some other aspects at higher latitudes in addition to ENSO perhaps leaking westward a bit overall/weakening at that juncture.

Depends on where you are I guess-we have alot of red here on the leaves

I know you were drunk here but here’s a picture of my hill this morning . That area where I took it just past the town Green where they have had several frosts. As anyone can see , the trees are loaded and the color is mostly brown and oranges .

no complaints here. LOVE mild, dry November days!

70's Friday? keep it coming

TORCH this week!

Ridge(y) east but still suspect we are not as dry and may deal with cut off under the ridge 11/5 - 11/11

Good stuff. At this point, I'm particularly interested in whether we can get any meaningful downstream troughing into the eastern U.S. as we head into the second half of November. Obviously, it's still early in the season, but we've seen November snowfall in Tennessee before, even if it's relatively rare. Curious whether this persistent IO forcing could eventually help shake up the pattern enough to open the door for some early-season cold.

36.2 in Muttontown & 38.8 in Syosset this morning.