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Also this Arctic front has all on its own over performed from what most models seemed to show. I expect we'll have a bit of a lull with maybe just flurries after this initial fropa before the actual ULL snows start up.

The HRRR missed onset in Tenn by like 8 hrs. Wouldn’t put a ton of stock into it

I don’t know what tomorrow will bring, but I do love the atmosphere allowed for snow immediately. No watching the wet bulb, cold flakes as soon as the radar turned green. Officially snowing.

About to come up on the 0z's! Gotta be like Press Your Luck -the old game show!! "Big snows big snows...No whammies!!"

Looks like it’s filling in better than previous but yeah. Something is off.

Slower *should* help the western areas. More time to pull back West, consolidate and expand.

No idea about the specifics correlation or lag. I just know the correlation is meaningful and positive. I started looking more at the sector seeing the cold snap caused the price of nat gas to move way up but the big producers didn’t follow likewise. I then dug a little deeper and saw evidence in the long term price behavior of the major producers that people are rotating into the sector—building positions. Of the group, CVX chart looked the best to me. I also believe natural gas is in a long term uptrend. The recent cold snap was just adding fuel for a breakout.

26 degrees, vehicle is covered and steady snow.

I think it is just slowing the ULL some, seems like once it closes off a little earlier than previous runs showed it spins SE slower and has also corrected west a little bit. RAP seems to start and hour or two earlier than HRRR in MBY.

Yall will start later tonight.

lol no

Few flakes seen falling in Lancaster, SC.

Good luck. I'm pulling for all of you. Hopefully, the HRRR will be more generous with the Triangle in its 0z run. Its 18z solution seemed unrealistic, but we'll see.

It's true. The DMV is too far north. NC will always get all the snow when we have strong cold air over DC. I might need to write up a morbid story about NC in the Blizzard and thousands of people trying to walk along I95 in waist high, rapidly deepening snow while NE gales scream overhead. Now watch what happens in late April when the Pattern finally changes. DC will get demolished by torrential rain.

Nice to see you down this way

It seems reasonably close to where the 12z ECMWF showed it developing.

Got a nice dusting now, very wind blown snow. If get any appreciable snow I could see there being drifts.

While obviously too light overall, the heaviest portions of this are present, but are displaced to the west by 20-30 miles. If that holds true for the entire event, could be good news for SE TN.

Thank you. The general radar sites look wonky.

One other thing that has been interesting to me looking through the SPC meso page, is this ribbon of deep DGZ around the stretched out vorticity: I think there is a 3000' thick DGZ layer back in Kansas. EDIT: Oh wow, that's not in feet, it's in meters. So that's almost 10000 feet thick

HRRR initialized too dry again. Not sure what the problem is but barely has anything on the radar view while the actual radar has returns over SC, N NC, and the mountains.

Just guessing…I’ve got a little over an inch .

Look forward to these from 2015

There is an initial round of snow working its way through Hamilton County. The orientation is wrong for what I expect the main show to be. It honestly just resembles normal NW flow. I think as the ULL moves in this will re-orient into nearly a due N-S direction. Seeing some ground truth MPING reports in the city now. Nothing IMBY yet, but we should get some light precipitation shortly. 32 here.