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Really looks like El Nino might be the saving grace - hopefully anyways. Could not imagine what the PDSI could end up if we saw a 1934-type summer setup? Would be something ridiculous like -10 to -15 nationally.

Yeah for sure - I mean am I right in saying that it is mostly attributed to the "doldrums" of summer and just weaker overall systems later in summer? At least spring/very early summer you can still get some dynamic systems with big temperature swings behind fronts and such. I will say - sometimes you will (like you said) get an isolated event that has an absolutely destructive microburst in the area - if that happens in a populated area that can be a "signature event" for some people for a given year.

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". "Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

In other news, Scott sees this, and First I have heard of this (new Kocin snowstorm book). Can anyone confirm?

26 BML.

This arctic air mass has punched way to the south: the dewpoint at Miami is down to 61!

My buddies and me did the Franconia Ridge in early May 1975 with snow showers at the base but thankfully dry on the ridge. Quite the slog through areas of deep snow in the way up via the falling waters trail. Of course a few months later we had legendary heat. Some of the guys are gone but most still here albeit many in steep decline. I’m enjoying good fortune while it lasts although my spinal stenosis and aches and pains in joints occasionally plague me. My philosophy is push through what you can…

Thought the same thing here this morning as snow was falling…

Great winter

El Niño may end up being the saving grace for the current drought situation. The April contiguous U.S. PDSI came in at -7.56 — the lowest April value on record and the 4th lowest monthly value of any month, behind only July 1934, August 1934, and March 2026. So while there was a slight improvement from March’s -7.85, the national drought signal remains historically extreme. The scary counterfactual is: what if this pattern carried into summer and then paired with a 1934-type heat regime — or something even hotter in today’s warmer baseline climate? PDSI is not a linear “temperature gauge,” so I would not casually forecast -10. But entering the warm season already near -8 leaves very little margin. A major summer heat dome, high evaporative demand, and continued precipitation deficits could push national drought severity into territory that is difficult to contextualize historically. In other words: even modest improvement matters here. Without a pattern change, this is the kind of setup you really do not want to stress-test.

Seems to be the norm, doesn’t it?

CFS summer outlook

For the record

Both BOS and PVD with above normal temps in this May 2005 redux

A strong or super Nino ensures there’s lots of mild Pacific air flooding in. But it will also be moist and we won’t have the endless cutters/SWFE we sometimes see in Nina’s. It’ll be southern stream driven and we have to hope to time one or two of them with cold enough air. We all know what happened in Nino seasons like 2002-03, 2009-10, 1982-83, 2015-16 etc. If only 2/6/10 could’ve edged north a little more.

Looking around this area there’s lots of tree damage I assume from the winter storms.

if we get a super nino we'll need to hope for one big bomb 1983 or 2016 style

Great call....

Yeah...don't disagree. I'm tempted to summarize your thoughts here by saying that real intelligence isn't being exceptionally good in a narrow discipline. It's quite intuitive that the "relational database" is perhaps hugely more intelligent than the sophistication in the data tables. Just quick metaphor. Point being the relational aspect stops the over application specific finding..etc But in my discourse here I'm also venturing into the ramification of providing information to those that don't know how to objectively consume it - that's a problem with just giving data out. January 6 is an example of a segments of population gaining access to information, not judging in propriety, than working en masse. We could tire of writing specific examples that point out the risks of giving information to basically .... idiots. Lets not mince words. The lovable Idiocracy of civility at large!

I also think we need to recover the polymath instinct. Historically, a lot of important thinkers crossed boundaries between business, politics, science, history, law, and the arts. We’ve moved toward extreme specialization, which has benefits, but also creates blind spots. AI makes it possible for more people to responsibly cross those boundaries again — not by replacing expertise, but by helping them read, calculate, compare, and test assumptions across fields. That’s the spirit of the piece: not “I’m the final authority,” but “let’s make the assumptions visible enough that more people can examine them.”