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This has been debunked by many meteorologists.

mostly bare grass here at the office near o'hare am snow squalls more of the cold rain variety so far need the late week events to reverse trends asap otherwise looks like white xmas chances are p low imo

Nope, and that's how we learn...in that respect, AI and actual intelligence are alike. Thank you.

Yup, let’s shake the beotch up some. I’m fine with a few milder days, and then see where we stand. Be nice to get the next system though…hope that can work out for us/the area.

6z EPS (favors north of DC) vs GEFS (favors south of DC)....

Not saying it's going to break or it's not going to break. Even if it does, I don't think it's going to be a long-term, warm pattern for the rest of the winter. My point is, no reason to break down. By the way, I really do appreciate reading your breakdown of what you expect for this winter. Nothing ever goes exactly as we plan, but I believe the general consensus of what will happen this winter will fall well into what you had explained in your winter Outlook. Thank you for that

Been meaning to mention this for a while. I think a lot of people (including some professionals) are misinterpreting the implications of the 12z and 0z being more accurate due to ingesting more fresh data. This means that right after the 0z comes out it's going to generally have better verification scores than the 6z does right after it comes out. It does not mean that after the 6z comes out, the 6 hour old 0z is going to still be more accurate than the brand new 6z. The 6z has access to whatever fresh data it ingested PLUS whatever was available at 0z for the data points where it hasn't ingested anything new. So it should still be better than a now-stale 0z. To summarize: maybe take 6z runs with a grain of salt, but still put more stock in them than in older runs

And we can't get a trough to center in the right place to save our lives the last 6 or 7 years. There is a tendency for them to center over the lakes or the NE when we need them further west. We could possibly score with that scenario and a strong CAD but the NAO hasnt helped either and the cold scoots away.

Yeah looks like the warm up is going to be brief and maybe not all that noticable? Like MAG suggested yesterday, it doesn't look like Torch City.

As @NorthHillsWx said, the pattern has been too progressive and we really need a tall ridge (+PNA) in the west to get this northern stream energy to dig further south. We are exiting a La Nina but I worry about atmospheric lag. As we all know February and March are usually toast in La Nina years. Most of us haven't seen a big snow in these months since 2014 regardless of the indices.

Someone saw Santa’s list early…

Idk if I’d change the timing, I’m getting a new St. Croix Seviin reel on Christmas Day

That standing wave is why I have been pointing out the warmer risks to the EPS extended forecasts after December 16th. Notice how the long range EPS missed the forcing there back in November. This is has been a regular EPS forecast error beyond 10 days in recent years due to the record marine heatwaves near the Maritime Continent. New run shows current MJO 4-6 standing wave Old run missed the current standing wave

And you got called out for being a naysayer at the time…

You nailed it for sure. You also smelt the bs of this current pattern long before anyone else.

Having cold air on our side of the globe only works if there’s a mechanism to get it down to us. PNA and western ridge orientation, and -NAO much more important. As you said, this flat NS dominated regime with a progressive flow wasn’t going to work for anyone wanting a big storm. We were simplest avoiding torches and wasting cold

I said that to some of the guys in a group text last night....the second half of the month will be better for snow, even though it will be milder.

This would be lol though

I'm inclined to agree with that right now. For one, because of what we've already seen this season. But also, another nice group of ensemble members on last night's run showing that too. Possibly better than yesterday's group even. Also if you go loop some of the op runs out to the end. There's hints of some favorable wave breaks in progress in the Pacific... and some signs of that possibility within the eps members too.

I posted this 10 days ago. Only thing I would change is the pattern reset time. That may not happen until after Christmas and maybe next year.

Unfortunately everyone except the one who likes it the most, ME.

6am snow depth 10” Season to date MSP - 15.3”

Its funny cuz its true.

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop. So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

File this away as well: MJO always has and always will be a vastly overrated teleconnection. We’ll firmly be in 8 for these 70° days.