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It’s official. NOAA has declared an El Niño

All I know is after this weekend deep summer is canceled UFN.

77 instead of 72. Big effing deal.

always a bit of question whether these mcs cranking at a diurnally unfavorable time get over the hump and go long track, nice to see them going bullish

Major damage late last night/early this morning in the far north end of Springfield, IL. Especially near the fairgrounds. The Animal Protective League (local animal shelter) roof in some of their buildings were destroyed. Making those buildings a total loss. Also reports of power flashes near the State Fairgrounds. Lot of power outages stretching from the far north end of Springfield all the way to at least Decatur. And we weren't under last night's tornado watch (for Peoria/Galesburg/Bloomington areas) down here, although I'm thinking the actual watch box clipped the far north end of Sangamon County, plus much of Macon as well. Pre-2006, that would have been enough to put Sangamon and Macon counties in the watch. Stinkin' Lincoln (ILX) strikes again. https://www.wandtv.com/news/illinois/thousands-lose-power-during-overnight-severe-weather/article_2ef40d58-ec90-447e-962c-d2371b9a714d.html

Funny how the cig2 and highest risk just stops a few miles from the lake

Are the Northern areas safe for outdoor activities in the evening on Friday based on the current CAM consensus?

Finally came out on 1300z SPC OTLK

Look at this pig ... 984 mb low near BUFF, yet ... immersed in only 564 dm thickness, having almost no hydrostratic gradients surrounding all quads, either In summer. This is D7 Euro so... meh, no responsibility to accuracy is really there - yet - but that's an example of too much amplitude ( or likely to be...) on summer mid range charts. I like the triple point secondary low forming at the head of the 576 - that combination of metrics you don't typically see, huh

You are correct. No one had a WAN first half . Same will happen second half and Julorch . Both will warm as we get closer

Oh, yeah.... I posted their disco excerpt ... "...especially away from the coastal plain. Heat Advisories may be expanded further east; however, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop into eastern MA sometime on Friday" But in their defense... they did mention the advisories might extend east - I don't care to be involved with the petty pot shot at NWS thing... just sayn'

? I think there's a pattern relative warm bias that is the CC expression that is sort of unnoticed - or maybe ...everyone knows it but chooses to ignore. I dunno. But what I mean by pattern relative warm bias is that the pattern essences may actually be verifying better than either the temperatures that result, as well as what folk tend to associate what those patterns look like the temps should be. I don't mean that necessarily wrt this last month's behavior ( necessarily...), but I always go ahead and assume two aspects: these 540 dm festering multi contoured hornet stings on the summer D9-13 charts we see over James Bay are not going to do that, and, whatever comes of it...we'll be 2-7F above scalar predictions anyway

Did they actually term it a backdoor? It always looked like an outflow assisted seabreeze to me on the mesos from some convection along the coast. Looks like we ended up with a little more ridging though because I remember that 2m theta-e gradient being near the NH/ME border and now it’s up into central ME for this evening.

This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of conditions across NC with the triangle area finally slipping into D4 for first time since the 2007-2008 drought.

As long as this 200 -250 mb Jet Streak is unusually far south in June we are going to have chances of severe weather across the area - usually a summer like pattern features this being further north into Canada

oh yeah, some huge ones in my neighborhood that i try to avoid parking under

I feel like the first half of June is shaping up a lot warmer than it was looking a few weeks ago. I’d have to go back and read the posts. But most sites will be well AN through Sunday. ineedvitD can keep posting his d10 GFS afternoon 40s that verify as 70s and 80s.

Any show today looks to be a late one, per the overnight CAMs. There does seem to be a modest consensus that a broken line will approach from the northwest around sunset, and the environment should support maintenance of the activity for several hours beyond peak heating. As for Friday, instability looks great, but shear is not good. Storm organization should be sufficient for some severe threat, but the current CAM consensus keeps all storms later Friday from DC to the south.

Gm bros

Maybe too much of a good thing? Too much data dooms us in here in winter as we needle through all these implications over multitudes of modeling output that starts to paint these ideas on how to get a storm pack to 20" from 3 units of vertical velocity when sometimes a step back and head clearing might make the event at hand a bit more realistic and less ACME coyote planned. LOL... I dunno. Maybe analogous to that they're looking at too many reasons that could happen and not enough at if it's likely. I did annotate a chart that showed a tendency for a west bulged PP on Friday, yesterday morning, but it was very weak... The NAM grid had that numeric suggestion at Logan of 88 to 76 back to 88 wind driven temp flop look. Not sure if that's what they were spooked by. That same 'bulge' is now gone, and the NAM grid has offshore throughout.

Even though the RONI in the 2023-2024 super El Niño lagged the ONI by 0.6, the May 2023 response at 500mb was actually stronger than both 2015 and 2026. My guess is could be related to the early development of 2023 especially in the Nino 1+2 regions. So this is probably why the 500 mb ridge in Canada and warmth going into the winter of 2023-2024 was better aligned with the ONI at 2.1 rather than the RONI at 1.5.

I have a large one of those in my hay field. I lost one side of it about 5 years ago but it is massive. They are fragile but can turn into impressively large trees given the right environment.

Chips Ahoy boxes