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  1. Past hour
  2. cyclone77
    Cedar Rapids looks to be the place to be per usual here in the DVN cwa.
  3. LAVistaNY
    I’ve really enjoyed this summer so far - heat with occasional breaks, and a few thunderstorms!
  4. Juliancolton
    I'm sure it's been said already but today's feeling a bit autumnal. Can you break summer's back before Aug?
  5. Torch Tiger
    Yeah definitely below normal for the forseeable future. it is what it is
  6. EarlGrey
    Popcorn storm galore this afternoon.
  7. Prospero
    I am jumping the gun a bit, but also realize once Bertha gets named my silliness is way less acceptable here. LOL TS Two conditions here in Gulfport FL is a nice breeze, beautifully wet, and the most comfortable weather outside in a good while. Thank you Bertha even if you don't get named!
  8. dendrite
    You know what average max temps are this time of year, right? And the mins will bring down average temps a bit. It doesn't look very cold...just a bit BN.
  9. Damage In Tolland
    If 80’s is below normal I don’t know what to tell Them
  10. bluewave
    My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS. While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS. So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West. I kept the scales in C for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/ Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East Verification in C
  11. Voyager
    I did as you suggested, and one in town about quarter mile away was 0.95". One in Hometown, perhaps a mile or so north was one inch exactly, and the USGS gauge, which is also about a quarter mile north of me along the river, (it measures river stage) was at 1.45".
  12. WestBabylonWeather
    Top ten day. Surprised Adventureland isn’t more crowded
  13. dendrite
    Deep summer is on hiatus for awhile. Wed will be dewy prefront. But overall it's a lot of COC.
  14. Snowacane
    It's amazing how the rain just keeps dying as it gets close, then the temp shoots right back up to 99. 3 days of this BS
  15. LakePaste25
    This is true, but tropical convection isn’t decided by absolute SSTs alone. It’s relative to global mean tropical SSTs. Assuming the negative SSTAs materialize in the W pacific, the gradient between the negative SSTAs and the 30C waters shifted east of the dateline is what matters. You can’t really use 2016 or 2024 as an analog for this because such a gradient did not exist, and thus the convection was still present well west of the dateline. If the CFS does not materialize, and the W pac SSTAs are not below normal or closer to normal, then there’s a stronger argument for more persistent convection well west of the Dateline.
  16. bluewave
    The one difference from that forecast SST chart is how much warmer all the ocean basins are forecast to be than April 1998.
  17. Today
  18. GaWx
    Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6: 8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6: Actual 2m for winter 25-6: So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close. *Edited for typo
  19. bluewave
    It’s as if we are starting to see some of the higher end El Niños that weren’t forecast to repeat only a few years apart until later in this century. But the strength of the La Ninas hasn’t been really increasing. So this goes to show how much work we need to do on more accurate climate modeling. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0
  20. canderson
    I have tickets to a show at Merriweather (in Columbia) Tuesday. I’m kinda planning ahead on not driving the 90 miles S only to get soaking wet and deal with delay after delay. If anyone might be interested in Death Cab for Cutie tickets shoot me a message and we’ll see what transpires Tuesday (hopefully this gets punted into Wednesday am … )
  21. LakePaste25
    The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree.
  22. snowman19
    Yes, this event is very east-based/EP just like 1997. In fact, 1997 is by far the best ENSO analog for this event
  23. canderson
    Had to map Elimsport - a new one for me!
  24. George001
    Yeah, this El Niño is developing like a stronger version of the 97-98 super Nino.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Recon is out there now and no surprise there is a well defined LLC. Should help with future modeling.
  26. bluewave
    Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.
  27. George001
    I’m not sure why you got roasted for that. Imo, the base assumption for 27-28 should be a fairly powerful La Niña until proven otherwise. We haven’t had a strong La Niña since the 10-11 winter, but I would not be surprised at all if that changes come fall 2027.
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