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So what is the difference between the GFS and GEM at that time frame? Did the GFS hold something back? The GEM looks remarkably like the GFS solutions from a few days ago...tropical system and all.

I swear…. I am not emotionally mature enough to handle it snowing in deep south GA for a 2nd year in a row while I get nothing. Please save me NW trend lol.

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast

Good shifts, but I need to see a hell of a lot more to be any kind of believe in this one. I was never on board.

Can you research that and see if there's a connection ?

Would either of you mind giving an explanation of the AAM and how it relates to what we see in winter?

Oh yeah, for sure. It's a little frustrating. Some of the observers really do try and come to a reasonable number, but it's hit or miss. Can say the same about most climate sites (but not all, there are some that are usually pretty dead on!). In better news, the 0z models have trended a little more amped with the system Wednesday afternoon/evening, bringing 1-3" of synoptic snow to north central and northeast OH through the evening (probably 2-5" of snow in the snowbelt through Wednesday evening with lake enhancement), with some component of snow squalls Wednesday evening even outside of the snowbelt. Beyond that, it seems like a situation where fluffy lake effect/enhanced snow performs well through Thursday afternoon, especially in the higher terrain. Road conditions will probably be very shitty Wednesday evening and night with snow showers and squalls along with gusty winds and plunging temperatures.

I would gladly welcome 1"- 2" just to brighten the landscape.

The GEM followed the RGEM but is even more robust.

saw the forecast on my app little to no accumulation tho most fav words of weather around here for forecasts. why bother with a weather alert if the write up is a copy and paste of that

No kidding. Nice look.

0z GFS is a closer miss for the majority of the region but that was a good shift west.

speaking of 50s - temp is rising here, in the low 50s now.

So I guess the GEFS shows signs of that but everything is too displaced north as of now. Will need to watch it though.

there was also a Metro derailment? I was not aware of that

Sneaky trend for us. Let’s keep that going!

yeah - it's definitely within one standard deviation when the mean high temp is 44-45F.

0z gfs bringing some goods

Very close

Coincidentally, Jan 19th was the first region wide storm last season, though we're off to a much better start this one. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-19-2025

Excellent Post Man !

Blocking would do it. Or a preceding strong storm that becomes a 50/50 low, ideally both. One other thing I forgot to mention is the reason we don’t want troughing in the NW US is that it promotes a parade of GL lows, which has been a bane for us. That’s a characteristic of -PNA. We don’t get GL lows in a +PNA, instead we get cold highs.

I didn’t break it down by La Niña location.

Slimy birria tacos Gfs northeast and southwest Fast and slow Climate is what we expect Weather is what we get we out Tommy E

0z GFS had a notable jump west with the precip and had it more widespread getting it all the way to the Eastern parts of our subforum. Had a good amount of upper air improvements as well but just couldn't quite consolidate quickly enough around the southern part of the vort due to an extremely annoying vort max which acts as a minor development blocker. I'm honestly not sure if we can get the trends all the way to the southern end where we ultimately need it to be (just seems unlikely to get that solution in this situation akin to this Thursday), but if we were able to it would be a major storm.