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Coldest air temp I ever experienced was in Stowe -29F.

For coastal locations, it'll be harder for snow, but it'll still be dependent on exact track and surface High locations. But if the precip forecasts from all the seasonal modeling are correct, there will at least be a lot of chances. If nothing else, it won't be a boring winter.

Not ideal

Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro. Very 97-98 like

Nino 1+2 end up on the higher side of the average. The decreasing warm anomaly in Nino 4 was a big miss...falling completely outside of the ensemble spread. The forecasts for both Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 were near the bottom of guidance. RONI makes a difference but the sst analysis/database matters a lot too. ERA5/OSTIA puts the Nino 3.4 RONI around 2.1C whereas NOAA ERSSTv6 puts it at 1.7C. This is due to both very high resolution (0.05 degrees) and the inclusions of satellite-based SST analysis. The best forecasts from ECMWF from today and CPC/IRI plumes from late August still show this as a clearly record breaking Nino event with a RONI peak between 3 and 3.5C.

Updated Euro seasonal. A touch warmer for the winter months by around .5C. Still wet. Link to everything off this run. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

Link for everything on Euro seasonal https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

Precip DJF & JFM

850 DJF & JFM

H5 DJF & JFM

Updated Euro a touch warmer this run. DJF and JFM T2.

What is the deal with tornadoes? You spend your whole life building a house, putting up drywall, picking out a nice neutral beige paint, and then the air decides it just wants to spin really fast and carry your sofa into the next county. And the meteorologists! They get on TV with their little glowing screens, pointing at red blobs like they’re tracking a hostile alien invasion. "We have rotation! Seek shelter immediately!" Calm down, Gary! It’s just wind having a nervous breakdown. Why does it gotta touch the ground? Stay up in the clouds where you belong! It’s like nature is doing a magic trick, but instead of pulling a rabbit out of a hat, it pulls your garage off the foundation and deposits it neatly in a cornfield. And what do they tell you to do? "Go to the basement." Oh, the basement! Right under the house that’s currently disintegrating. That’ll make me feel safe, sitting in a damp concrete box next to a water heater and a half-empty can of wood stain, waiting to see if my toaster ends up in Ohio.

I never ended up under a core, in fact, I didn't even really get that much rain from the event compare to others. However, the anvils alone provided the occasional close lightning strike . Distant flashes and thunder were continuous. Nights like those turn out to be very productive for me becaus It gives me a reason to keep my butt outside and work around the house.

https://www.popville.com/2026/09/more-cars-smashed-by-downed-trees-from-last-nights-storm/ DC really got hammered by the Thursday night storm. Great photos in that thread with many downed trees. Our friends friends from NE DC stayed with us last night because their power was still out, though we think it's back now. There were no wind issues like this just a few miles north in silver spring, just heavy rain.

Just one more night of continuous lightning, before we close the book on summer. Thats all I ask for, it was so awesome this past week!

2026 Pennsylvania Tornadoes Last Updated: September 4, 2026 Date Location County Rating June 6 Beallsville Washington EF1 June 6 Ellsworth Washington EF1 June 6 Centerville Washington EF1 June 6 Linn Fayette EF1 June 6 Virgin Run Fayette EF1 June 6 Jacobs Creek Fayette, Westmoreland EF1 June 14 Conneautville Crawford EF0 June 14 Stoltz Crawford EF1 June 14 Leimbach Road Crawford EF1 June 14 Anita Jefferson EF2 June 14 Cochranton Crawford EF1 June 14 Diamond* Venango EF1 June 14 Cannelton Columbiana (OH) - Beaver EF1 (OH) EF1 (PA) June 14 Grand Valley Warren EF1 June 14 Moraine State Park Butler EF1 June 14 Beaver Falls Beaver EF0 June 14 Alexander Road Butler EF1 June 14 Muddy Creek Road Butler EF0 June 14 Homer Twp Potter EF0 June 14 Pine Glen Centre EF1 June 14 Kirkwood Lancaster EF1 June 22 Sandy Hollow Fayette EF1 July 5 Lamb's Gap Perry EF1 July 18 Limestone Clarion EF1 July 18 Punxsutawney Jefferson EF0 July 18 Latrobe Westmoreland EF0 July 18 Derry Westmoreland EF0 July 18 Jenner Township Somerset EF2 July 18 Sanford, NY - Hancock, NY Broome (NY), Wayne (PA), Delaware (NY) EF0 (PA) EF1 (NY) July 18 Houtzdale Clearfield EF1 July 18 Vanscoyoc Hollow Rd Blair EF0 July 18 Huntingdon Furnace Huntingdon EF2 July 21 South Canaan Wayne EF0 July 21 Diamond Venango EF0 July 21 Villa Maria Lawrence EF0 July 21 Portersville Butler EF0 July 21 Whitestown Butler EF0 August 16 Hookstown Beaver EF0 August 16 Orchard Hills Armstrong EF0 August 20 Eastern York York EF2 August 20 Columbia Lancaster EF1 August 20 Habecker Rd Lancaster EF0 August 20 Manor Twp Lancaster EF0 August 20 East Caln Twp Chester EF0 August 22 Madera Clearfield EF1 September 1 Gaines Potter, Tioga EF1 September 1 Derry Twp Montour EF1 September 1 Salisbury Twp Lancaster EF1 Data is preliminary and subject to change @stormsellwx

Just pillaging my reputation. Hate to see it.

I mean in SNE. Better chance down by DC where it doesn’t take much.

Man… Vort95 gone wild overnight .. scolding after scolding of Scoots

Is that stuff out west supposed to expand or trigger new storms? The trajectory sure looks like it's heading south and west of my location

Graf updates every hour. It still says 100% rain for Augusta between 10:30 and noon.

September 3-4 were a disappointment imby/Columbia. 9/3 - 0.04” 9/4 - 0.05” Fortunately I received almost a 1/2” rain on September 2, so the month is off to a relatively reasonable start.

Three more tornados confirmed 287 NOUS41 KCTP 050026 PNSCTP PAZ051-050430- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 826 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 09/01/2026 Tornado Event... .Derry Township Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.87 miles Path Width /maximum/: 250 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 09/01/2026 Start Time: 05:40 PM EDT Start Location: 2 ESE Washingtonville / Montour County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 41.0343 / -76.648 End Date: 09/01/2026 End Time: 05:41 PM EDT End Location: 2 ESE Washingtonville / Montour County / PA End Lat/Lon: 41.0322 / -76.6321 Survey Summary: During the evening of September 1st, 2026, a supercell thunderstorm moved southeastward through Montour County, resulting in a brief EF-1 tornado, which impacted southern portions of the county in Derry Township. We also found damage due to a downburst that occurred on the north side of the tornado, associated with the forward flank downdraft of this supercell. Maximum wind speeds from this tornado were estimated to be 100 mph, and the tornado had a maximum path width of 250 yards. Tornadic damage was first noted in the woods between Steffens Rd and Indian Run Rd, with a start time of 5:40 PM local time. The tornadic damage was primarily on Stable Ln and the hairpin turn on Indian Run Rd. In this location, two large trees snapped and fell on a shed, with a trail of snapped and uprooted trees into the woods beyond the property. The tornado continued eastward before dissipating near Fossil Hill Rd at 5:41 PM local time. Surrounding this track, numerous trees were snapped and uprooted from straight-line winds, making a broadly divergent pattern particularly to the north of the tornado path. We would like to thank Montour County Emergency Management, local homeowners, and other members of the local community for their assistance in this damage survey. && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0.....65 to 85 mph EF1.....86 to 110 mph EF2.....111 to 135 mph EF3.....136 to 165 mph EF4.....166 to 200 mph EF5.....>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. 857 NOUS41 KCTP 042221 PNSCTP PAZ006-037-050230- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 621 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 09/01/2026 Tornado Event... .Gaines Township Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 110 mph Path Length /statute/: 6.5 miles Path Width /maximum/: 150 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 09/01/2026 Start Time: 05:33 PM EDT Start Location: 4 W Gaines / Potter County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 41.794 / -77.6155 End Date: 09/01/2026 End Time: 05:48 PM EDT End Location: 4 ESE Galeton / Tioga County / PA End Lat/Lon: 41.7082 / -77.5748 Survey Summary: On September 1, 2026 at approximately 5:33 PM EDT, an EF-1 tornado impacted areas of eastern Potter County and western Tioga County in the vicinity of Gaines Township. Maximum wind speeds were estimated at 110 mph with a maximum path width of 150 yards. Damage associated with the tornado began north of Galeton near Phoenix Run in Pike Township, where multiple hardwood trees were snapped along with numerous large branches on both sides of Phoenix Road. There was more extensive damage just east of Phoenix Road, where a larger swath of EF-1 damage was observed with some uprooted trees alongside snapped trees and large branches. Damage continued southeastward on Phoenix Road in Potter County with more sporadic damage including broken large branches and snapped trees. There was an area where the tornado potentially lifted as it approached US Route 6 with damage being largely sporadic and not as concentrated as it crossed the roadway. Once crossing US Route 6, more widespread damage was observed across Hanky Panky Road in Gaines Township, Tioga County. Numerous uprooted and snapped trees were observed across approximately a 150 yard segment with eyewitnesses mentioning that there were trees across the roadway in a convergent pattern. This damage continued towards the intersections of Dingman Road and Bloody Run Road, where concentrated areas of snapped and uprooted trees continued to be observed. There was another eyewitness that noted multiple trees uprooted at their residence on Dingman Road with what appeared to be a convergent pattern. As the storm continued into Marshlands, multiple large branches as well as uprooted and snapped trees were in a convergent pattern, with surrounding vegetation also outlining a convergent pattern. The tornado likely continued to parallel Elk Run Road just south of the roadway before dissipating on the north side of the intersection with Straight Run Road. We would like to thank Gaines Township Emergency Management, Tioga County Emergency Management, multiple first responders, and the multiple eyewitnesses from Gaines Township for their assistance with this damage survey. && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0.....65 to 85 mph EF1.....86 to 110 mph EF2.....111 to 135 mph EF3.....136 to 165 mph EF4.....166 to 200 mph EF5.....>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$ Beaty/Krantz