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Two day mild down…today and tomorrow. 48 and cloudy…feels like November. Nice sweatshirt weather. Autumn in New England.

That’s two little snows this week up there…nice to see.

These partial clearing forecasts are going to bust based on the satellite loop

The 0Z UK is nowhere near the E coast. But it has a very high end TS, which based on the 976 mb SLP might be too low: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.8N 71.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.10.2026 36 32.8N 71.4W 1010 44 0000UTC 19.10.2026 48 32.0N 70.5W 1008 42 1200UTC 19.10.2026 60 32.4N 70.3W 1008 39 0000UTC 20.10.2026 72 34.2N 70.2W 1005 39 1200UTC 20.10.2026 84 34.7N 70.0W 1002 40 0000UTC 21.10.2026 96 34.7N 69.9W 1001 41 1200UTC 21.10.2026 108 34.5N 68.9W 1000 39 0000UTC 22.10.2026 120 35.3N 68.6W 997 42 1200UTC 22.10.2026 132 36.5N 67.0W 994 44 0000UTC 23.10.2026 144 38.5N 64.9W 986 56 1200UTC 23.10.2026 156 40.2N 60.6W 980 58 0000UTC 24.10.2026 168 43.3N 53.8W 976 56

34 with a mix of ran, pingers, and tiny flakes now. Sent from my SM-S948U using Tapatalk

As my analysis shows above, the Oct Euro hasn’t even been close with its winter prog the last 4 years: 24 25: too warm 22 23: too cold Out of the last 9 years, it didn’t do well 6 of the 9 years. So, it’s likely pretty clueless based on this.

Overnight ghost hunt in Warwick NY tonight. Just so dang lucky with the temps

Pretty underwhelming cold front. Dead calm outside, pushing 60 at 10 am. Might hit 70° at this pace.

Front came thru a bit after 6 am. Temp has been dropping ever since. Currently at 10:15 am it is 58 and breezy with light rain

New Sweden reported 0.9" at cocorahs. Probably more at FVE.

Hot damn. We are cursed to love frozen water. Nice stuff!

Im aware of all of that. Models always smooth things out. There will always be warmer areas....and colder areas. The Euro seasonal was too warm multiple times for the east the past handful of winters. Do i doubt that someone somewhere will have a +10 month? Not at all. To say that its going to be way warmer everywhere is the part I have issue with. Actually, im really more interested in snow. We all have tirelessly agreed it will be a mild winter, despite some troll comments implying the mysterious never-to-be-found posters calling for a cold winter....but these wild posts (not by you) that no one gets snow. Lol. I live in a state where the license plate says "water winter wonderland" and somehow el nino will take away all our snow

39.1F Light rain and snow shower. It seems that the snow falling and changes to rain shafts right at my elevation of 1100 feet. Some mangled big flakes. It only lasted 5 minutes and now the sun is coming out.

1/2 of rain last night. Currently 51 degrees and overcast.

Yeah, ADK, Bretton Woods… just one of those things. Toll Road open to the summit, lol. I said no way that thing would open today, figuring an inch or so on road and we close it immediately once any frozen road surfaces. 20F up there and just rime ice. 32F base area.

We’re also still pretty cold. Temp has dropped from about 33 when I woke up to 31.4 now on a light NW wind.

Agree with Bluewave. Unlike 2015. the MC forcing has been totally non-existent since spring. Very 1997 like in that respect. And as far as ignoring factors more important than ENSO, there are no factors more important than the strongest super El Nino in history. It is massive and it will be the main driver this winter, by far and away, elephant in the room, totally and completely overwhelming. An overwhelming signal this absurdly strong, with record/extreme latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere from the tropical PAC is going to trump all else (weather moves west to east), it totally dominates the forcing and the global heat budget. The extratropical -PDO (with the relative warmth off Japan doesn't even hold a candle to it), the AMO, the Atlantic, the Arctic, NAO/AO…..it is going to steam roll them

That’s weird. Mansfield is the snow magnet. Not often east and west of them snows and they don’t.

Sweatpants and sweatshirt. Cold.

Nice! We only had snow grains here and a bunch of rime ice up high. Mansfield snuck through with no snow.

We shorts today . Not bad out with a hoodie

That cutoff next week could create a stretch of real nice stein weather for days. Let’s dry up Brian‘s well.

Nah good for you, enjoy it. May as well snow here as my extremities got numb on the field.

Warm and rainy? @ineedsnow waking up in a panic right now