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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio Valley/Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest... Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period. Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast. Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z). With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm development within the next few hours. General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for several QLCS tornadoes. The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight, a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN. Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.

Considering the timing, the wind threat must be pretty substantial to extend the enhanced risk into the western part of East TN.

What time are we looking at currently?

"Pretty reliable" is an understatement. The least snowy winter on record there is 80" in 1930-31 & 2nd place is 100" in 1899-00. Since 1957, the least snowy is 2023-24 with 153.4". The snowiest is 390.4" in 1978-79.

Whoa... https://x.com/Drewshearer444/status/2033233835303878839 That would be crazy - even if it's more driven by the new outlook methods. I don't think Maryland has ever had a high risk if that's what he is implying they'd upgrade to.

New EURO coming in…

Put it this way: If that setup was in Dallas today it’d be a high risk and you’d probably see stovepipe tornadoes.

That sucks but glad it's under control.

I'm really surprised that there has been very little mention of the threat on my local NOAA forecast. No hazardous weather outlook or anything.

My son took this image from UMD last Friday of some cool optical images in the sky that I thought I would share. This thread seemed like the right place for them.

And now it's time for pressing the refresh button for the 1730z SPC OTLK lol

I’m so ready for the 3” of wet snow that will cover the remains of my house after it gets hit by a tornado

That's an entirely different event.

My wife disagrees with you

Send it up our way. Looking at 1". We'll take more Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Updated

When a Texas native, who is used to severe events, is deeply concerned about the set-up and potential for this one, it really makes me take notice.

Into the warm sector now

I have a weird vibe about this one… going to be a wild day tomorrow. Wish I had my ham license but it’ll definitely be a Skywarn / spotter network day (I still have all the radios, just can’t really [legally] transmit lol.)

That's what I was thinking however we did just jump to 33F here west of Madison. Reports of snow just to my NW.

Can’t really compare that. That day was almost 100 with ton of cape. Also wasn’t even in an Spc outlook for severe in the morning that day.

Going to go outside to enjoy the couple of hours above 50 here before the quick temp crash. It’s going to be a wild ride