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We're far enough from salt water to avoid significant marine influence. However, with a warming climate one might expect more convective events, but the opposite has been occurring. Our average for thunder days is 15 but in recent years it's been lower, and just 5 days last year, only the 2nd year below double digits (8 in 2010). Met summer had only 2 instead of the average of 10. Merely stochastic variation? (SSS - we moved here 28 years ago on May 15.) Had 1.28" between 9 last evening and 7:30 this AM, a very pleasant surprise given the modest forecast yesterday afternoon. With that drink, the coming 70s should bring an explosion of growth - leaf out here is a bit behind the average.

WAD

Back dat azz up

16 of our last 20 days have featured below average temperatures. Today will be another below average day before we start a strong warmup with temperatures by Tuesday approaching 90 degrees across especially the valley locations across the County. A cold front will cross the area later Wednesday with a chance of some showers. Following that front we should see temperatures fall back closer to normal levels by the end of next week.

16 of our last 20 days have featured below average temperatures. Today will be another below average day before we start a strong warmup with temperatures by Tuesday approaching 90 degrees across especially the valley locations across the County. A cold front will cross the area later Wednesday with a chance of some showers. Following that front we should see temperatures fall back closer to normal levels by the end of next week.

My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course.

Bought this place Apr 06…moved in Jun 06. Road washed out in between.

Yep that is life

good luck w/ the crops. Sounds like later is better for your garden. Happy planting. We gave up on our garden a couple years ago. I/we miss the "fruits of the labor, but it was my wifes hobby, and i was just the weed guy. I hate pullin weeds....lol. She just does small batch stuff in some of our larger beds. Jalapenos going in very soon she says. Her pepper jam is a crowd pleaser, just like her horseradish used to be. Have a good weekend all.

yes it was! And I don't have any faith in seasonal outlooks so you've manage to penetrate my cynical lead on this one. Ha... I nailed the first 1/2 of winter; didn't do so good in the 2nd. Having said that, I also did not formalize any outlook so ... heh. I guess it doesn't count. Maybe if I had put the time in I might have thought differently about the back half but I bet I would have had trouble getting out of my own way. See, for NINA-decaying springs - according to my own linear eval of correlations of other ENSO of past vs the cosmic dildo - there's an interesting 2ndary offset mode for bombastically warm AMJ. As 2ndary implies, it's not the leading mode. But there's a cluster. So they don't always happen, but the ones that did went impressively warm. I felt 'hot' on the dice roll. I took a rather quick and glib gamble that CC would team up and weight the die - this could be one of those years to see an early spring. And for those of us that covet bombastically decisive endings and warm flips ...yay. Didn't really pan out. But here's the funny thing... as an after thought, CC is fucking up the analysis, anyway. See, we keep cooking up positive anomalies in the relative comparisons of just about everything. That makes is hard to parse out what is happening because of what. Example, March and April we regionally were above normal relative to climate... during a colder pattern construct. Oops. We did however bottom of the barrel below the results relative to the whole U.S., so pattern still expressed. It's like we have parallel processes going on.

Yeah, Islip is only ranked 13th warmest this spring for average high temperature due to the strong onshore flow influence. Areas to the west of the sea breeze are the top 5 for spring warmth. So next week looks like more of the same theme. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Average Max Temp Mar 1 to May 14 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-05-14 60.5 0 2 2025-05-14 60.0 0 - 2012-05-14 60.0 0 3 2023-05-14 58.5 0 4 1991-05-14 58.1 0 5 2021-05-14 57.8 0 - 1999-05-14 57.8 0 6 2024-05-14 57.6 0 - 1977-05-14 57.6 0 - 1976-05-14 57.6 0 7 2002-05-14 57.5 0 8 2000-05-14 57.4 0 9 2016-05-14 57.1 0 10 1973-05-14 57.0 0 11 1985-05-14 56.9 0 12 2022-05-14 56.7 0 13 2026-05-14 56.4 0 14 2008-05-14 56.3 0 15 2006-05-14 56.2 0 - 1974-05-14 56.2 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-05-14 62.7 0 2 2025-05-14 62.4 0 3 2010-05-14 62.3 0 4 2026-05-14 61.5 0 5 2023-05-14 60.3 0 6 2024-05-14 60.2 0 7 2021-05-14 59.4 0 8 2016-05-14 59.3 0 9 2006-05-14 58.5 0 10 2004-05-14 58.1 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-05-14 64.6 0 2 2025-05-14 64.5 0 3 2012-05-14 63.9 0 4 2026-05-14 63.8 0 5 2000-05-14 63.4 0 6 2002-05-14 62.5 0 7 2006-05-14 62.2 0 8 2024-05-14 62.1 0 9 2023-05-14 61.8 0 10 2021-05-14 61.6 0

1.11" yesterday and 0.05" from midnight through now.

8 years ago. Wild day for SW CT. Thankfully I outran it and missed driving through it coming home.

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now.

Only issue is that the RONI ls lagging the ONI by more this go-around, even though it is like to reach or exceed that absolute value of 1982.

34 at 6:30. Frost and 30 at Headwaters.

For my location, both models are showing more snow than I care to see, and it has been consistent enough that I am starting to pay attention. I have a lot of trees and my cottonwoods are leafed out now. Rain would be fantastic…

The word drought and New England should never be used in the same sentence.

And then in a few months when its 90 degrees at 10am we will be complaining for this type of weather

Right but relative to the normal temps it was more extreme. Naturally, dewpoints are going to increase as we approach June.

Jones Beach water temp is still 52-53. That’ll put a hard stop on any temp climb on the south shore with that kind of S wind. Probably a full on Ambrose Jet day or two thrown in. Even here might be hard to get much above 80.

Dep through May 14 first two weeks of the month, should erase this in a weeks time and see + dep by the 21 Almost to the halfway point NYC: -2.2 LGA: -2.1 JFK: -1.1 EWR: -0.9

Depending on thunderstorms in the summer to make up the drought is a crap shoot. I fear this gets much worse.

Clouds and wind, cool cool

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (2018) NYC: 90 (1900) LGA: 92 (2018) JFK: 82 (2007) Lows: EWR: 40 (1939) NYC: 42 (1947) LGA: 43 (1947) JFK: 44 (1966) Historical: 1834 - The Northern Atlantic Coast States were in the midst of their greatest May snowstorm of record. The hills around Newbury, VT, were covered with two to three feet of snow. (David Ludlum) 1834: A wintry period from the Great Lakes to parts of New England. 6 inch snow in Erie, PA (14th); 12 inches in Rutland, VT, by p.m. today; Newbury, VT received 2 feet (sleighs on roads on 16th), while Haverhill, NH, vicinity had 2 feet in valleys and 3 feet on hills. 1896: A tornado with F5 intensity struck Sherman, TX killing 73 people; 60 of them in downtown. Tornado victims were found as far as 400 yards away from their original location. A trunk lid was carried 35 miles by the twister. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1949: A violent F4 tornado moved through Amarillo, TX. The tornado tracked through the Amarillo Airport and damaged or destroyed 45 aircraft. Seven people were killed and 82 were injured. Damage was set at $4.8 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1951: On this date through the 24th, Hurricane Able does loop-the-loop north of the Bahamas and reaches Category 3 strength off Cape Hatteras, NC. 1962: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date 94 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1966: The NIMBUS II satellite was launched on this date. NIMBUS I had malfunctioned and was never operational. The arrival on the scene of the NIMBUS satellites eliminated the threat of tropical cyclones striking without warning ever again. Polar orbiting satellites, the NIMBUS series gave meteorologists worldwide coverage at least once per day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968 - A tornado touched down southwest of Anchorage, AK. It was the second of just three tornadoes reported in Alaska since 1950. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - The worst ice jam flooding of memory for long-time residents took place along the Kuskokwim River and Yukon River in Alaska. It was the first time since 1890 that the two rivers "flowed as one". The towns of Oscarville and Napaskiak were completely inundated. (15th-31st) (The Weather Channel) 1985: Marion, NC received 6 inches of rain in just one hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Unseasonably warm weather returned to the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Janestown, ND, with a reading of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms in Utah produced five inches of rain south of Bicknell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 80 mph in Oklahoma County, and baseball size hail at Pawnee. Hail piled up to a depth of 18 inches south of Pawnee. Hail damage in Oklahoma was estimated at close to 25 million dollars. Thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced golf ball size hail around Cleveland, OH, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Angola, IN. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along and north of a stationary front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 145 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Softball size hail caused 2.1 million dollars damage at Sherman, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Central Plains Region and Oklahoma to Indiana and western Kentucky. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including seven in Oklahoma, and there were 165 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A tornado killed one person, injured a dozen others, and caused four million dollars damage at Stillwater, OK. Another tornado injured eight persons at Foyil, OK. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma also produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Oologah Lake, and softball size hail at Canton and north of Oakwood. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: A series of slow moving thunderstorms moved over Bennett County in South Dakota. Not only did 5 to 6 inches of rain fall in the Martin and Tuthill area, but marble to golf ball size hail fell for an extended period of time. So much hail fell that it actually piled into drifts as high as 6 feet. A flash flood threatened 16 children and 3 adults on a field trip in Little Grand Canyon, in southern Illinois' Shawnee National Forest. While trying to escape the rising waters, a teacher and three children fell into a creek and were swept downstream about a mile. They were later rescued by helicopter. At least five tornadoes struck the western and northwestern parts of Texas. The strongest tornado was sighted near Laverne, which was rated as an F3. The tornado was 800 to 900 yards wide, and its path was 11.5 miles long. Three injuries resulted in the Laverne area. This storm also produced hail the size of grapefruits. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: About 5 miles north of Charleston and Ingalls, KS strong thunderstorm winds gusting to over 100 mph snapped off 150 power poles and 40 pivot sprinklers were damaged or destroyed, along with trees and fences. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)