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I realized that I never put out my Winter grade for this past season…so here we go, better late than never… Overall Grade: B+ Each met Winter month at MDT had well below normal temperatures. We had sustained deep Winter feel, with minimal breaks. The cold began right around Thanksgiving & lasted through early March. Monthly Average Temps at MDT December -4.8 January -4.2 February -4.4 Snow total at MDT for the season ended up at 23.8 , which is 6.1 below seasonal average of 29.9. We got off to a really good snow start in December & January. Then in February, we couldn’t get any storms of note until the February 23rd storm, which then unfortunately under performed & only produced 3 inches at MDT while Philly, NYC & eastern New England cashed in with double digit amounts. The main issue in Each Winter month was the overall lack of precipitation. We had temperatures cooperate most of the time, but could not get the storm chances to provide more snow. The other issue is that yet again, we got no measurable snow in March. When we were sitting at 20 inches at the end of January, I thought that we were well on our way to an above normal season, but the end game was disappointing. Monthly snow totals at MDT December 5.0 January 15.2 February 3.6 If we would have reached climo average for the snow total, this Winter would have gotten an A from me, thanks to the sustained cold & snow/sleet cover lasted for over a month. This Winter provided several “What ifs” that could have made this season even more memorable with slightly better storm tracks or air mass cooperation. Here are a few “What Ifs”: -The Boxing Day ice storm tracked just 50 to 75 miles further southwest, we could have got the 3 or 4 inches of snow that Allentown & NYC received. -The mid January trough that set up that produced a couple of inches of snow at MDT with a few rounds of light precip, what if it consolidated into 1 significant snow event or if the track was more favorable with the actual events that produced 6 inches or more in Allentown & northeast PA. -The major snow/sleet storm in late January that produced 12 inches at MDT… what if the sneaky marginal warm layer that caused the flip to sleet due to the weak primary low that tracked into WV was offset by an earlier or stronger coastal low that could have reduced or eliminated the sleet mix…This storm was the only heavy precip producer of the season. It would not have taken much to get a widespread 18 inches of snow in the LSV. -the February storm that gave us 3 inches from the late developing Miller B… what if it developed just 100 miles further southwest… we could have received the 10 to 20 inch amounts that Philly & NYC scored. There are a few more chances that ended up not in our favor, especially in the first half of March, but no such luck. Overall, there was non stop Winter storm tracking from Thanksgiving to mid March. I was satisfied with this Winter, but also frustrated, mainly due to all of the what ifs that I mentioned. If one or two of those broke in our favor, this Winter would have been great. This Winter was our best season since 20–21 & much better than the last few seasons.

Taking lessons from CoastalWx? We do need the rain!

Soaked

Stein has slowly been creeping those webbed hands around me since mid April.

Will be steined for this one. Less than .25 I think for sure.

IJD slug making beeline for you in S Wey

Steined

Shockingly (not) the weaknesses of the Os that everyone knew prior to the season is Costing them games. Defense, starting pitching, one dimensional offense all shortfalls of the 2026 Os. They might end up being worse than last year. And alot more expensive sadly

Snowpack is solidly below normal on Mansfield… about 50% of normal for this time of year. Probably got another week or two left.

We don't get big ass HP off the coast. We get hp ridges along the coast that pump in dry air and suppress convection. I don't see relief until Fall.

Nice downpour. 0.86”

Yeah, barring a major volcanic event happening really soon (like Pinatubo did in mid-June just before a robust el nino), I think most of us can agree that there will be another baseline temperature jump coming.

Moving younger daughter back from UConn today. Sunny breaks and was into the 60’s there and a little dewy . The sweat was tickling . Felt good.

Just dumped another bag of pellets in the stove. 47 is the high for today.

It did get cooler .

Another day, another 0.20” in the bucket, 55F.

Today absolutely blows. Saying today is depressing is an understatement

I’m so F’ng tired of it being 45, cloudy and rainy on Saturdays. If it’s not raining it is blowing 30. Like who pissed off Mother Nature? Haven’t had a single round of golf this year with even remotely ok scoring conditions and it’s really starting to piss me off.

Chuck’s clearly referring to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8: But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I mean if the gov’t would stop spreading boxes full of them that would be great.

That's unherd of.

Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.

The pattern has been largely de-amplified with much of the h5 energy on the weak side-strung out and mostly to the north of us. PWATs have sucked with a predominant westerly component to the flow- all downslope with little to no flow/moisture ingress from the south. Comfortable temps with low DPs, but not conducive to getting any appreciable rainfall in our area this time of year. If we want rain we need a big ass HP off the coast to pump the warm/moist air northward with some cold fronts moving through.. we need warm and humid.

Careful what you wish for.... I got clipped by the pop-up shower around 1:30p. Got a whopping 0.02" out of it!

I was only referring to the comment about 2013-14...I said it in spring 2014 and ill say it to the end...there will never be another 2013-14. Goes far beyond just being the snowiest winter on record. A retired local climatologist did a writeup at the time how it was the most severe winter on record and all the things that made it that. Not repeating that winter has nothing to do with warmer globe or anything like that. It was a winter that defied local climo. As for 2015-16 thru 2024-25, ive discussed it several times as well as how it differed from the warmth of the east. Here it was a product of 5 very mild winters (15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24) and the rest around avg (+/- a minimal amt) whereas the east was consistent mild each year. I will say though that 2025-26 was solidly colder than avg. Its colder than the longterm avg and its colder than the coldest 30-year normal in the entire period of record. The departure would be even more impressive if not for a sharp rebound the 2nd half of Feb. Lastly, what has intrigued me more than anything is how the past several decades, milder winters have less correlation to low snowfall (not just les but synoptic too) than they used to. Its more of a crapshoot now.