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Yep. The predicted rainfall has basically crashed out now. If we get a tenth that will be lucky with how most model runs look at this point. At some point, el nino should take hold and rain should return.
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- severe
- mountain snow
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Oh what could have been if winter didn't disappear and March and April in 1977. It was already a big snow year as it was, but it could have been even bigger if March and April didn't absolutely torch. More recently, there was a snow on May 9, 2020 (as well as a freeze on May 18, 2023). Those events happened after very warm and low snow winters.
- Today
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year. 1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20. -
I got only ~0.08” last night and only ~.01” during the daytime today, both pretty disappointing vs expectations. MTD is ~1.3”, ~1.2” of which fell one week ago (5/2) with a nice soaking 18 hour rain.
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Tomorrow seems like it has potential for at least some storms of substance, even if not severe.
- 320 replies
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- severe
- thunderstorms
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Nothing more soothing than a sunset nad knock.
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.52 here. About what I expected. Nasty raw day and the clearing line as the sun was setting was a nice kick in the groin.
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1.10” nice drink. Everything will stay nice and lush
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Monday stein too. Lawn will be meh.
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Half inch over the last few weeks. Webbed hands all over.
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Drying up and Steined.
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My place had like 10 min of thunder and some rain in between lots of sunshine
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They’re simply not good. They should be good, or at least better, but they’re not.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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.74 today and had .78 Wednesday . Drenched
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That’s moving NE right at S Wey
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.54 and more to go.
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He’s alive and well
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Not a drop of rain. And the cloudy 68F day that was forecast ended up completely sunny, humid 80F. How i despise this area.
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I am paying 50 monthly. 5 dollars a month for all the domains. I dropped my pay sites so it isn't a problem. If anyone wants to donate they can but its free for all. I don't know a site that has all the features I have on the facing page with zero new pages opening to view data and will update as requested or if I want something else to add. Build your own super ensemble wether short or long term.
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.81 here and .57 in the woodyard. Stein is dead.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
There is actually one paper that suggests that AI-generated headlines may garner greater attention. https://www.mdpi.com/2673-5172/5/4/110 This concerns me. My worry is that sometimes the actual nuance is lost in the AI-generated content. As a result, even as the headlines might be catchy, those headlines could be somewhat inconsistent with the content. That creates a credibility gap (which already occurs with "clickbait" headlines). I am not aware of research on that aspect of AI usage. I remain an advocate of AI, but suggest that one should beware of its knowledge limits (pre-training) and working context. The former can lead to an inability to analyze novel situations, extreme outcomes, etc., e.g., it's no accident that physics-based models remain superior to AI when it comes to forecasting extreme events. The latter can impede the quality of the AI's output even as subsequent models have grown better at following instructions and understanding the user's goals/intent. Overall, AI can create stunning visualizations/infographics. I use it at work for just that purpose e.g., creating graphics for presentation slides. I still need to verify the output as every now and then, things need to be tweaked. AI can also assess the strength and weakness of arguments and help identify "blind spots." I don't believe AI should be used to generate all arguments, much less as a substitute for human judgment. That's the case even as there are more advanced features that can also be applied, an increased capacity in AI coding (Claude Code, Codex, etc.) and sustained work that can be carried out through agentic AI. Finally, these are my opinions. Others may well disagree with me.
