All Activity

Latest GFS has you getting 18-19" and 12z HRRR has you at 14" with 10:1 ratios. Its very likely the storm will deliver 12:1 ratios for you overall. Just my guess ofcourse.

That is pretty much a nothing burger for SC and NC

Just tossing everything I taught you

Not even .25 here lol

As some others have posted, we are lucky we are getting this much for a SWFE. Ordinarily they do not perform well in coastal plain, and they often send as rain, not sleet. I’ve seen as much as 6-8” wash away to nothing or almost nothing at the end in some of the more potent ones. 8-12” with sleet at the end isn’t the end of the world. Canada actually being cold again has been the key this year. We have seen more favorable setups in previous seasons but no cold to tap into and we end up with mostly slop.

I'm as well and agree. I'm just glad this thing isn't turning to plain rain w/temps bolting to the 50s. If not snow, I'm in small camp and would rather have major ice storm than sleet. We haven't had one in a while but if sleet is all we have on the table, I'll take it. And w/the expected temps this week it will be a brick out there for a while... 12F/DP -2

Absolutely, like I said there are differences between this and most SWFEs. If we get clobbered for 5-6 hours before the sleet we’ll all do very well and no one will complain. Last Feb we did well, on the high end of expectations, Nov 2018 is another example and there are others where the snow came in gangbusters. But fundamentally this is a SWFE and the overall setup isn’t favorable for NYC heavy snow. Hopefully we luck out. And 30 miles north of the city, I assume in N Westchester maybe you won’t see much sleet and we dryslot before it comes. But on the low end we have to acknowledge the NAM is a possibility if we get crappy rates/snow growth to start.

Strat split still showing up in early Feb Old googly eyed pattern

The method uses like an average temperature of the lower troposphere to determine a snow ratio. I think in these situations with the very cold llvls below an above warm layer, yes the Kuchera method would "inflate" the output. The Kuchera method is so terrible...equally as worse as 10:1 maps

32/14. Steadily falling since 10.

Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down.

The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual.

no dude it'll be snowing heavily all day tomorrow! changing to sleet north of let's say Mahopac it'll stay all snow! It's going to be an over performer in my opinion people are going to be thinking all the sleet meanwhile the thump will overperform and stack

Must be a warm bubble directly on the leeside

33/13.5 here

Temp 17F/-8 Winds 15 WNW

Feb 2015 had a west track with a Bermuda high and was all snow lol. 7" in my yard iirc lol. But other than that freakshow, mix lines slow down or stop for nobody when they are in the forecast area

It is amazing how early last week everyone told us suppression was our main concern. Weenies now melting down in the ny thread. First it was the SE, then us, then NYC.

Yeah my area might get 2"+ of sleet accumulation on top of 5-6" of snow. That's a very big deal and temps stay several degrees below freezing Will be an absolute nightmare to deal with though. Clearing that stuff out will suck

Thanks guys. I appreciate info. I feel better about 33 and rain not haunting me this time lol.

Column finally starting to saturate here...made it up to exactly 32.0....temp fell to 31.1 in last 15-30 mins

Hrrr near term trending colder each run. No surprise, I think the nam and fv3 thermals will be closer to reality.

The overall setup isn't going to trend at this point but the timing and intensity of the front end thump could still make a big difference between like 5 and 10 inches for many in this subforum.

The fronto is north of HFD/PVD by the time it starts snizzling.

It hasn’t even started yet and like @jm1220said the swfe storms very rarely give the coast a big snowfall. We’d all be begging for this one last winter