All Activity

Nam comin in looks better than 18z via Saturday snows

Believe the NAM might be better than its 18z counterpart for Saturday

Will also +1 @katabatic - we met up for dinner in Deep Creek a few winters back…great guy and has a genuine love of weather. Enjoy the chase NA101!

Yup..backside of the trof is def further west. Hope it means better things down the road

NAM is definitely pushing the trough further west, near the Rockies at 51hr. A little flatter out ahead of it though.

https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models/?model=era5&base=500relvort&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=2021012700 This site has a reanalysis of the 2014 storm talked about, and many others if anyone is interested. Menus take a minute to figure out but a lot of great storms to look at on there.

I can just hear the Pokémon evolving music with this...lol (iykyk)

NAM is coming in further west.

Yeah it did, I was kinda pissed when that one skunked my area, but that didn’t last. The next storm alone more than made up for the entire first half of winter, then we all know what happened. That truly was a once in a lifetime winter. Anyways, how are you feeling about this one? I like where we are at with this. There is a decent amount of support for a moderate event right now on guidance, with some upside if things break right.

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Hes absolutely right. The Jan 24th event was the big system in the mid-range...id say about 120hrs +/- 20 hrs, somewhere in that region, it was being modeled as a big dog 12-16"+ event region wide on multiple models, then it fizzled and turned to shit, somewhat. @George001 remembers. I know this stops at Jan 27, but that storm didn't even exist at this point, it was all the first system Jan 24th. I dont have much saved from that event but heres one run.

All snow in northern Macon county. Hopefully I can pick up an inch tonight. Good luck everyone and stay safe.

Yes the big blizzard shown was very likely unrealistic but wouldn’t count out a SECS just yet.

NAM ridge out west is a smidge higher, but can't say I like the slightly flatter flow out front so far. Yes, it's the NAM. But we got nothing else until the real deal runs.

18z GEFS also likes the late next week potential.

Screenshot this, and look again next week. Helps keep things in perspective.

Really? I don’t remember it doing that on modeling? But ok.

That kickoff system was modeled as a 12-16 incher in the mid range, and bumped NW last min leading to mixing and changeover to rain cutting down on totals in eastern areas. The follow up threat…. That went from 0-100 on guidance inside 5 days.

Really strong signal for this range on the 18z AI EPS for Next weekend.

AI GEFS

And this was my point, that system was what kicked it all off. Yes, that season was a rat up to that late January point. This one, so far anyway is much better for us here in CT, than that one was for us, as you point out. And I learned something tonight, and that was that the kickoff system in ‘15 that we’ve been discussing, was better than I thought it was for a lot of the area. It just wasn’t that good here in my town. As I said, I wasn’t trying to downplay it, was just going on my backyard for that, and it wasn’t as good here. Didn’t realize it was pretty decent in a lot of other places. Cool.

I didn't do as well those east but I was in between you guys and the big dogs. I remember going east for work and was amazed at the pack they had. I have pictures somewhere but don't think I'll ever find them.

This is the best sounding I have seen for SBN since...the internet age started? Unidirectional NNW winds from the ground to heaven, virtually no inversion, and insane omega in the DGZ. Wow.