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Hey what's with the clouds?! It's ruining my perfect Summautumn day.

This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time. MSP Dec 1877…..+14.5° Jan 1878…..+10.2° Feb 1878…..+15.8° https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78. The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f). In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

I said it’s possible. It is. But all we have to go on is history. And that suggests the issue is likely to be temps. I don’t buy the models showing these long cold periods. They do that every Nino. The climate models seem to think every Nino is 2010. Dunno why. But they’ve been off several in a row. So I am not buying that. IMO the issue is it’s likely to be too warm to snow the majority in the winter. But we’re also likely to have a juiced up STJ. So the question is do we get enough cold windows to time up 1 of those juiced up 2” qpf waves? So the math becomes is it too warm 95% of the time and then a 1998 becomes likely. Or is it only 75% and then 1983 or 2016 is more likely. Somewhere in there it becomes more likely we do get lucky with at least one wave. And maybe we even get lucky with 2 but that falls in the same boom category just more boom. The bust is it’s too warm 90% of the time and we don’t time anything up and have very little snow. I am not arguing a twist can’t happen just that those are the most likely two scenarios. IMO maybe 40% boom, 40% bust, 20% some weird unforeseen outcome based on new climo. Just my 2 cents. I don’t have a crystal ball.

if i play the lottery more often, i have a higher chance of winning

Forky is always fear mongering. I remember him and others were saying how we will not get a hecs for a long time or even 40 plus inch winters. Well look at last winter.

Its not only about the El Nino. Of course it will be warmer than last winter . I guess no one learned about long range forecasting after the long range forecasting busts in the past few years.

76F/DP 60F Sunset is now under 8pm and losing more and more daylight each day...

Historic event = historic storms

Warmth isn't evenly distributed. Several LR models have the US as the coldest anomaly on earth while the rest of the planet torches. It all depends on where the ridges set up. Despite that you can never go wrong with saying it'll be an AN winter temperature wise in today's AGW era.

Great weather today with comfortable humidity and temperatures not too far from normal for mid-August. We turn wetter and a little stormy by later tomorrow into tomorrow night some spots could see upwards of an inch or so of rain. We turn sunny any by Monday with pleasant weather returning and lasting through mid-week.

Great weather today with comfortable humidity and temperatures not too far from normal for mid-August. We turn wetter and a little stormy by later tomorrow into tomorrow night some spots could see upwards of an inch or so of rain. We turn sunny any by Monday with pleasant weather returning and lasting through mid-week.

GYX has been consistently showing slightly AN for next week, except for Monday's rain. 45 this morning, coolest since June 17. August is still +3, however.

Given this is the strongest El Niño in recorded history combined with AGW I can’t see how this isn’t the warmest winter on record across the CONUS

Historic https://x.com/us_stormwatch/status/2088444482224328788?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

It already has. NYC used to have their climate only a few decades ago. Now they have what we did.

I feel that it was a terrible manager pick for a team that needs experience and leadership. Most MLB teams have a limited window to win it all, and this goes down as another wasted year.

https://radar.weather.gov/region/hawaii/standard

August 15 1936: St. Paul swelters with a high of 108. For Saturday, August 15, 2026 1787 - Tornadoes were reported in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Wethersfield CT was hard hit by the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum) 1946 - Saint Louis, MO, was deluged with a record 8.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel) 1967 - The Sundance fire in northern Idaho was started by lightning. Winds of 50 mph carried firebrands as much as ten miles in advance to ignite new fires, and as a result, the forest fire spread twenty miles across the Selkirk Mountains in just twelve hours, burning 56,000 acres. The heat of the fire produced whirlwinds of flame with winds up to 300 mph which flung giant trees about like matchsticks. (David Ludlum) (Note: WOW, EF5++ firenados) 1983 - Hurricane Alicia formed on this day and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $2.6 billion (1983 USD) in damage and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961. Also, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history. 1987 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a sharp cold front produced severe weather in the Upper Midwest during the afternoon and evening hours, with Minnesota and eastern South Dakota hardest hit. A thunderstorm in west central Minnesota spawned a tornado at Eagle Lake which killed one person and injured eight others. A thunderstorm in eastern South Dakota produced softball size hail at Warner. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty five cities in twenty states in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA and Baltimore MD, where the mercury hit 105 degrees. Temperatures 100 degrees or above were reported in twenty-two states. Pierre SD was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 114 degrees. Bluefield WV reported eight straight days of record heat. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Clovis. Evening thunderstorms in West Texas produced baseball size hail around Hereford, Dimmitt, Ware and Dalhart. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 15 Sat National Relaxation Day 15 Sat National Back To School Prep Day 15 Sat International Geocaching Day 15 Sat International Homeless Animals Day 15 Sat Assumption of Mary 15 Sat Chant at the Moon Day 15 Sat Check the Chip Day 15 Sat Feast of the Assumption 15 Sat National Leathercraft Day 15 Sat National Lemon Meringue Pie Day 15 Sat National Shoe Donation Day 15 Sat St Mary's Day 15 Sat World Greatness Day 15 Sat National No Sponge Bob Day

Sun sets before 8pm now 76F/DP 55F

https://x.com/ryanweather/status/2088279380971680057?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Week 32 worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:

our climate is coming for you

Late August/early September: Probably near normal with perhaps a cool period. Remainder of September: generally above normal. October: I am really uncertain.

More recent guidance leaning toward morning rain, perhaps a brief break early afternoon, and then more storms later in the afternoon and evening. Juicy precip totals.