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I don't think that stuff is true guys... The GFS dropped the 15/16 system, but then redrew it up where it is happening now. The Euro did the same thing; they just did this at different times. I realize there's some fun frustration context going on... but the problem is any model trying to perform in this type of pattern constraint.

If I learned anything last January, I’m not going to think it’s snowing until it’s accumulating in front of my eyes

About 1.5" here. Maybe a slight overperformer.

I agree with this. Unfortunately, the formula for snow in the SouthEast just isn't there.

saturday is 1-2 inches for the city and 3-4 for sunday! i'd be happy with that!

Agreed.

But it would give you snow..so that’s a good thing.

The gfs has been especially bad. Its head faked a blizzard at day 5 twice in the last 4 days

RGEM tilts neutral too late and too far north so it's a late bloomer, best precip over VA by the time the cold air arrives. Axis of best dynamics over DC

The west end of Morristown near MRX picked up a decent little dusting overnight. Nothing on my end of the county though. Skies cleared out and bottomed out at 18. When I just drove to the west side of town right now I noticed the snow started showing up more and more the further west that I went. I did notice a small streamer in that area around 5AM this morning. That area is somewhat favored in NW flow. It can do pretty well for the valley in these events.

Yeah, it does kind of feel like that. Up until about 24 hours before it had us getting a foot here for that storm. Really bad

Back to back daytime 1-2" events with lollis to 3" on a weekend. That would be enjoyable if it happened. A little less for eastern/coastal areas with the first and more with the second.

They’re all like that though. Euro ain’t what it used to be by a big margin, but GFS isn’t any better either.

I really don’t think moisture is going to be our issue. It’s hilarious to see temps become the problem but decent rates and the surface being at 31-32 would do the trick. Globals aren’t going to handle surface cold very well either, so I’d lean on shaving 1-2° off of that.

lol it only nails it if the solution is crappy. we've seen it amp up and do interesting things only to fall flat on its face

I noticed that with BTV as well.

West, but weak.

RDPS shifted east slightly. West trend seems over for now

Light snow started about 20 minutes ago. Ground is caving.

We’d take that…better than nothing.

Wow we got model tracks anywhere from buried near the Gulf Coast and marginal temps, to almost up to Chattanooga and plenty cold enough. 06Z RRFS has a couple inches at KCHA - a 60% hatched risk for major disappointment. Truth may be somewhere in between. I'd be happy for those in central GA central SC, and the NC Piedmont. Maybe their groaning would subside for a couple weeks, lol!

The early January thaw is over. Back to winter, we got the cold again, all we need now is that deep snowpack. And everyone will be happy. Hopefully this upcoming pattern delivers the much needed goods.

the sunday event better than Sat Sat is an inch or less Sun is 1-2 verbatim

Nope. But we’ve been here before, and ya gotta man up-Not fall apart. Needs to regroup and pull himself together.

Ideally you don't want multiple shortwaves stacked such that the northerly ones are displaced right of the trof axis like the entire thing is toppling over. That inhibits neutral/negative tilting of the trof. Or more precisely it indicates that the overall flow isn't conducive to negative tilting. The RGEM isn't a bad run - we're still in the game - but it has clear flaws.