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2015's big +PDO is starting to diverge us in the NW, US through the 2nd half of May and now heading into June. Watch out expecting a big Winter month or two like that year, because the PDO was >+1 in 2015. Favorable NAO can help though, of course.

The latest model data to me is suggesting the Omega block sticks around a while longer but at times its position shifts a bit east allowing pieces of the hot high pressure ridge to move east and into and out of the NYC Metro region. So we go back and forth with 2 days of warmth/heat and then 2-3 days of cool weather. I suspect over time later in June or early July that the warmer/hotter weather may tend to own a little more of the time but I think the unusually amped flow will continue to allow cold fronts to move across the northeast. WX/PT

https://x.com/runews/status/2060887383738921298

no other shots of this happening? that's strange

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

What's your average high up there at 1k? 63-65?

Ninja’d ^^^

Need some summer to go along with this long daylight. I’d take consistent 70s at this point.

Hopefully a wetter and not to hot overall summer.

Sunday June 7, 2026 3:28PM EDT High impact tornadic and flooding weather event is currently underway. Thunderstorms and embedded supercells will continue to train over the same areas stretching from the Charlottesville, VA vicinity up through northern VA and into north/central MD just west of the two major beltways exasperating the flash flooding situation in these areas. Strong low-level SSE winds continue to bring in low/mid 70sF dewpoints beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (7+ C/km). This is resulting in over 3000J/kg MLCAPE and with the strong LL shear in place (effective SRH of 250-450 m2/s2) and strong deep-layer shear in general (~60 kt EBWD) organized supercells with be maintain for the remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening hours before the best dynamics lift to the northeast. Tornadic supercells will train over the same or similar spots over the next several hours as this broken line ever so slowly crawls eastwards into the metros (Individual storm motions: 230/40kt. Broken line motion: 310/5kt.) With the dynamics and instability some tornadoes may become strong to significant and possibly long-tracked. Other severe hazards with these storms include severe winds (50-65+kts) and very large hail(2-2.5”+). The other highly impactful threat from these storms will be the major flash flooding. Much of the area will end up with 3 to 6 inches of rain with up to 8”+ in some locations.

Looks dry and mild through Saturday, a few showers Sunday/early Monday then retorch next week. Overall summer vibes

The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo: Old: New: It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth: Old: New:

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US. Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

June DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -2.3 -0.8 -1.3 2.0 0.6 0.5

Meteor video from near Smugglers Notch https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1D1m4o9Hv8/?mibextid=wwXIfr

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine,_Texas

https://x.com/i/status/2061189526874169417

Euro says next weekend is an inferno around here.

1. 2023 Nino peaked at near moderate/strong border based on RONI. RONI (relative ONI), unlike the traditional straight ONI, takes into account the warming surrounding tropical waters from global warming. RONI has been on avg ~0.5C cooler than ONI in recent years. So, whereas 2023 ONI peaked at border super/strong ~+2.0C, RONI peaked at only ~+1.5C (not super). 2. 2018-9 was weak Niño. 3. 2015-6 was the last true super-Nino. 4. 2014-5 was weak Nino. For those who aren’t aware of this, ENSO is followed daily at this informative thread:

I told you to toss that.

78 was the high here today.

More coyotes. Mom and Dad checking the bait. https://youtu.be/qcvl59bp0Lk?si=rv6I4fR1A9TyBUyr https://youtu.be/qcvl59bp0Lk?si=rv6I4fR1A9TyBUyr https://youtu.be/4cPpA7FB8i4?si=sgYtFjzGnnEMo2N8

Makes total sense.