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  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    94-95 was really skewed by February. The rest of that winter (November-January and March) absolutely torched in the Eastern US and was actually cool in the West. I'd say 14-15 was the best match for 25-26.
  3. mahantango#1
    US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·oSnesoprtdah6a1lm6h2himht63569uagm0ct73u14i7tf9gt2c1i2tff16i · A strong low pressure system is expected to bring scattered severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, July 21st. Damaging winds are the primary threat, though all severe weather hazards may be possible. Remember that central Pennsylvania only sees around 5-6 Enhance risks a year. Confidence continues to increase for severe weather on Tuesday.
  4. IrishRob17
    50 for the low here, I see 48 up the road at KMGJ, I nice break from the warmth.
  5. ForestHillWx
    52 here; lovely morning.
  6. kdxken
    Looks like a banner week excluding Tuesday and Wednesday.
  7. MJO812
    63 here
  8. kdxken
    "In terms of rainfall, it looks like areas along the southern CT, south coast and the Cape and Islands stand to see the most rain, at the expense of interior Southern New England. Ensemble 24-hr QPFprobs paint moderately high (40-70%) probs of rain totals AOA 1 inch along the southern/southeast coast, and lower (< 40%) to the north and west. These areas have been getting quite a bit of rain lately, especially out over Cape Cod. " Rinse and repeat.
  9. Stormlover74
    Down to 56. Feels chilly out
  10. chubbs
    Nope. The Chesco COOPs cool significantly relative to the SE PA Division data from the PA climatologist. Regression isn't a good tool because the station changes are sudden not gradual and you picked an interval that started after the initial Coatesville move and ended before the West Chester move took full effect. If you widen the interval to 1941-1975, the difference in slope is large. Per table below, comparing the five years before the first move and the five years after the last move, the Chesco COOPs cool by 1.7F relative to the SE Pa Division. Note that the Pa SE Division includes the Chesco Coops so the two items compared are not independent. For that reason it is not surprising that the delta for the SE PA is slighly smaller than ABE. Funny seeing you try to try one dead end after the other to discredit what the the raw data from Chester County clearly shows. The 3 stations each cooled significantly after the 1945-1970 moves: first Coatesville cooled relative to Phoenixville and West Chester; then Phoenixville cooled relative to Coatesville and West Chester; and finally West Chester cools relative to Coatesville and Phoenixville. You aren't going to change what the data clearly shows.
  11. Modfan2
    51F for the low in E CT, CoC day on tap!
  12. North Balti Zen
    Absolutely comical split to basically whiff our area - light rain for 45 minutes. That has happened so much this spring and summer - not sure why but it has been happening a lot.
  13. Chrisrotary12
    It would be different in here if something exciting happened occasionally but it just doesn’t anymore. Straight up boredom around these parts for the last decade. I agree with you that the vast majority of people want yesterday’s weather, but the people in here at least want excitement. It’s been so boring that we have been left to post about rain and smoke. Occasionally a blizzard impacts southeast Mass but that’s about it.
  14. bluewave
    I am wondering if the reason that the standard 2020s summer -PDO/+AMO atmospheric state pattern has dominated the first half of summer rather than an El Niño type is due to the standing wave centered more in the Southern Hemisphere? El Niño has garnered a lot of attention, and this looks to be a large event for the reminder of the year. El Niño is related to cooler, wetter than normal summers in the US while La Niña warmer drier summers. I think the summer of 1988 cemented the impression that La Niñas support continental heat domes, heat and drought for the US. But looking at the temperature pattern across the US this summer so far it seems to be just the pattern that recent summers have settled in to regardless of the phase of ENSO. So far, in my opinion it is hard to observe the impact of El Niño on US weather just yet.
  15. HIPPYVALLEY
    Got down to 48°.
  16. Today
  17. Superstorm
    Little taste of fall this morning. .
  18. Snowlover11
    Beautiful outside. 57F
  19. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  20. doncat
    Upper 50's morning of July 20th not too bad.
  21. jconsor
    While there is typically relatively high uncertainty for nascent, not well defined systems, I agree with NHC and posters here that the uncertainty here is unusually high due to the forecast coast-parallel track and the strong dependence of the track later this week on how quickly future Bertha gets organized in the next day or two. I go into the potential scenarios and all of the details here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tropical-storm-bertha-likely-to-form?r=etzas
  22. yoda
    Day 2 ENH up
  23. LVblizzard
    The NAM and HRRR look drastically different for Tuesday. The NAM has widely scattered storms in eastern PA while the main line stays in western PA and dissipates as it reaches this area. The HRRR plows a strong line of storms through the region on Tuesday evening. It’s a decent setup without as many fail modes as Saturday…but we still need things to come together the right way. It’s not easy to get a severe outbreak around here.
  24. GaWx
    For the first time in 7 runs, the UKMET doesn’t have a TS from this: it dissipates in the NW GOM similarly to the prior run TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22 0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27 1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32 0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31 1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28 0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25 0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24 1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28 0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING
  25. winterwx21
    Yeah July hasn't been bad other than that incredible heat wave to start the month. Pretty good that we're gonna end up with a near normal month despite that record early heat. I'm glad that we've gotten much more rain this month too.
  26. RUNNAWAYICEBERG
    It was good to see Spain win but I would not count him out for 2030 just yet.
  27. TheNiño
    Welp here we go again
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