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Snow totals for March 2nd were: BWI 1.0, DCA 0.8, and IAD 0.4. Those numbers eliminate several entrants from winning -- in fact only six (in black) of the top 18 remain in contention. @Chris78maintains a narrow lead over @Cobaltwith @Roger Smiththe highest ranking entrant with all positive departures at the four airports.

Euro looks different..so does the Euro AI…big warmth, and then a wintry look after…so. EPS too.

It's almost like there is built in synergistic feed-back now, anywhere outside of direct polar sourced modulation/forcing on Earth. Where ever there is warm look to an outlook, relative to region, ... it seems to become historic more commonly than not. Regardless of where. The aspect ( Meteorologically...) that enhances that prospect for PHX most likely has to do with the perennial flow across N/A, which features a flat ridge over the continental cordillera, tending to nadir as a flat trough exiting the east. PHX, and surrounding of the S/W - which by the way has just registered the warmest winter ever from Canada to Mexico, reside within that flat ridge. That supplies a perpetual positive/constructive resonance potential at all times. It's not major... but, when we are dealing with synergy, the whole product after smaller additive forcing, tends to be larger than amount of the individual addition. You add 1 to 10 ... you get 12 so to speak. In other words, this gives them a bit of an advantage. There may be some urban expansion feed backs as well - I haven't heard/read of any studies that use scientifically discipline in conjunction with mathematics which quantifies how much. Not beyond speculation. It's likely fractionally playing a role but cannot atone for the whole occurrences. Nor does that diminish that significance of the record occurrences - in fact, .. it substantiates "why" that is happening. Particularly when considering how well that fits in with the planet as a whole, where warm events are consummately over performing above leading predictive indicators/methods.

light snow here 31

Seriously, did you look at any guidance? Look at the most recent gfs run. It’s exactly as I said. Looks like typical March weather to me. Lots of clouds, raw, with some rain and snow showers. Am I supposed to lie because we had two great events?

Just for fun, it’s March whatever ha, but this was about to be a massive nor’easter, and cold/frozen by the looks of it

Reminder: phase 7 has averaged even colder than 8 in March following Niña winters as phase 8 has averaged 2nd coldest. Another reminder: as always these are merely averages of a wide array of actuals for each phase. (I use Baltimore as a rep. city to calculate these since it’s in the middle of the E coastal U.S.) March Niña by phase (whether inside or outside COD): 1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo) 2: -0.1 3: +1.8 4: +0.3 5: +2.1 (2nd warmest) 6: +2.6 (warmest) 7: -1.7 (coldest) 8: -0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +0.7

27° with light snow. Granted I live on a quiet dead end street but it's well salted and it's fully covered.

It's started flurrying here.

52 foot drift lol.

BDR even undermeasured back then!!!! Imagine the model runs of that storm today-this place would self destruct!

What is wouldn't pay for a radar loop of that storm lol. I think BDR reported 18 while HVN reported 45.

I'm not home but it looks like temps are around 25 and cloudy in my area.

I live close enough to you that im giving you the side eye on this one

Happy to report the bridge was wide open with traffic moving freely when I went over at 8:45am.

Solid overcast here now. 28F.

Nice here too. Although clouds coming in now.

roads won't be icy in March with temps around 30 middle of the day-not sure why all the closings today for wet roads lol

Light Sleet/snow in Sloatsburg. 30 degrees. Roads mostly wet. Salt trucks out

31.6 and nothing really glazed... I have been below freezing for 36 hours or so.

It’s a nice morning up here.

It's March ... go wonder.

1. I agree that neither Eric nor anyone can possibly know at this very early stage how strong El Niño will be. It’s not that predictable and some models like the Euro have had a warm bias even all the way through summer progs. It could very well end up strong or even super-strong, but it could also end up weaker just because we and models don’t know.2. I feel like RONI would be a more telling index to predict than ONI. RONI has recently been ~0.4C cooler. Eric may not be explicitly taking that into account. When all is said and done, there’s <100% chance (although not much less as of now) we’ll actually have El Niño per RONI. It would be hilarious if we don’t considering this thread’s name has El Niño in it. 3. There have been some strong to super ones that were cool to cold in most of the E US lower Mid-Atlantic southward: 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8. And 1911-2 was cold everywhere despite peaking at +1.4. So, even if it’s strong, don’t expect a mild winter like 2015-6 in the SE and possibly not mild also in the Mid-Atlantic. And then consider that even up at Boston that although they’ve yet on record to have a cold strong+ Nino, it could end up NN as per 1896-7, 1902-3, 1925-6, 1930-1, 1940-1, 1957-8, 1965-6, and 2009-10. That’s almost half of the 18 strong+ Ninos back to 1877-8. And 1972-3 and 1991-2 were only slightly AN vs their respective climo in Boston. A torch covering the entire E US has occurred only once, 2015-6, as 2023-4 was NN in much of the SE.

I didn't see anything frozen fall, but there's a light coating of crud on my car's windshield.

Better that than your 298 lbs