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Model QPF continues to downtrend at the last minute with tomorrow's wave. Much like it did with yesterday's. Overall a pretty lame storm system to be sure. Hopefully interesting weather will return sometime next month.

I’m assuming this is tropical on the 0Z Icon: holy cow!

It actually gives us three separate snow storms that run starting October 25th.

Had a nice late sunset with a moon over the South Lawn tonight.

midnight shower as the front moved through

Today's Highs: ACY: 85 ISP: 82 New Brnswck: 81 TTN: 81 EWR: 80 BLM: 80 PHL: 80 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 JFK: 79 NYC: 77

88 fir a high

You getting this big jet flying over and over. Ken either?

John, thanks. Are you referring to the late Sept of ‘26 nor’easter? If so, I was just counting ones in October though I realize it was within a week of Oct and thus very likely largely connected to the very strong Nino. But I didn’t check Sept for any of those 9 analogs. So, if we count that one, does that reduce the chance for a 2nd E coast storm later this month? I never found two really notable E coast storms for any of the 9 analog years in Oct, itself. I suspect that may be more than just randomness. Maybe one strong E coast storm late Sept/Oct is enough to sort of calm down the atmosphere and prevent a 2nd one? What do you think? If so and if we count the late Sep nor’easter, maybe that would reduce the chance for another for the rest of Oct?

Based on 100% of the 9 very strong Nino analogs back to 1877-8 having a near E coast (SE and/or NE) storm of some kind in October, I’m leaning to cyclogenesis next week close enough to affect parts of the E coast. This could be a nor’easter, a TC, or hybrid. These include -early Oct 2015 highly unusual complex setup associated with a combo of well offshore Joaquin and a SE US ET upper low/stationary front resulting in devastating SC flooding rain -late Oct 1991 “Perfect Storm” hybrid in NE -late Oct 1982 strong nor’easter centered on mid-Atlantic that lead to a very rare Oct combo of a long duration of continuous rain, strong winds, and cold (40s) -early Oct 1972 very strong nor’easter that was worst Hatteras to NYC (both ~4”+ rain) -early Oct 1957 strong nor’easter hit Hatteras/lower mid-Atlantic hardest ————— Edit: @Typhoon TipI think was pointing out that the late Sep ‘26 nor’easter may have been close enough to Oct to count as the ‘26 version. I’m waiting for him to clarify. But if so, I do wonder if that reduces the chance for one next week since I found only one in Oct for each of the 9 years. Hmmm. Any thoughts anyone?

I finally figured out your screen name. As always ……

There have been over a half dozen strikes on the east coast during the years you said were zero. A simple Google search into the seasonal hurricane archives could have told you that Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

DT and JB like this threat for the coast.

High of 92.5F here in upper NW. Still 78F.

It's an insane meteorological solution. The low I've been discussing in the long range thread somehow cuts off and generates its own cold air. No way its right but was funny to see. I'll miss the NAM.

Not yet. Maybe early next year will be baby number 2.

I am at 0.71” total. On Monday the QPF for me was forecasted to land just under 1.2”. Starting to rain again and temp has dropped to 38.

There are going to be multiple instances where arctic air will time well with moisture and the Sub will get totally annihilated by snow. This is no ordinary Nino. Stock up on multiple Jebman Shovels, your favorite foods, metric tons of IPA's, plenty of beer, salt and even a snow blower or two.