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We do? Enlighten us...

Nam is always entertaining.

Good stuff today. Patrol opened the Front back up. Photo from a friend.

I think it ends up more progressive…

A track like this, this early in the season, was always tough for snow in the city (not something new). I remember the December 2003 storm was around the 5th. That was BARELY all snow even back then (that had actual blocking). A benchmark track this early needs a deep cold air mas in place or blocking to keep a cold high / ne wind in place.

Where is your farm? It must be in a nice "holler".

Def a marathon of snow today. Real good day to sit inside and watch some football.

Yesterday's PV forecast has it impotent thru early January again.

I think we have a pretty good idea

How about Taunton?

I need it north and so far it should be just right. 9" in my text is a nice increase from where this started.

Not shocked. Question is if this the furthest run NW we see or if it just keeps ticking warmer.

Meanwhile the ARW is so flat there’s basically no storm.

The SE ridge is a problem

That would be a good one. TW

Thats crappy even here.. but its the 84hr NAM

@Interstatementioned 12/8/13. That was the second-earliest December snow in my years here, at 8”. That winter turned out ok too.

God NAMMIT!

I heard some roaring and it wasn't the wind... it was this forum kicking into gear as something trackable emerges! Of course a concern would be the SSTs along the coast. The 6z GFS verbatim wants to do a Miller A type thing, out of the Gulf and up the coast. As an OBS, my low this morning was 30 and it's currently 34 with dp 23, so cold dry air out there (something that would have to moisten up if any rain has a chance here Sunday).

That might be more than some of us get altogether

Looks like some ice tonight. Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe- Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst- Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Roanoke, Boone, Tazewell, Pulaski, Buena Vista, Amherst, White Sulphur Springs, Floyd, Quinwood, Rainelle, Troutdale, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Galax, Bedford, Salem, Hinton, Fincastle, Lexington, Clifton Forge, Stuart, Hix, Marion, Volney, Alderson, Bluefield, Independence, Flat Top, Rocky Mount, Union, Duo, West Jefferson, Hot Springs, Sparta, Whitetop, Covington, Lewisburg, Bland, New Castle, Blacksburg, and Radford 300 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northwest North Carolina, central, south central, southwest, and west central Virginia, and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to noon EST Sunday.

Just going to include tonights little thump in this thread. FV3 and 3k both have it. RGEM not so much.

My first indicators of how future modeling will go, the NAM and RGEM. RGEM tends to be a warmer model. NAM tends to be quite amped at times. Still, I need to know whether NYC is still in the game for first measurable of the season. If the NAM 60-84 have NYC in some sort of snow, especially early Tues...thats good news, not necessarily correct. If the RGEM is likewise earlier and colder ptypes=qood news. You'll be more to date than I but that's how I read Global tendencies (OFF the mesoscale models - NAM supposed to go away in 2026). I do think the GFS is and has been too amped but this will be a significant short wave cutting east across NJ 00z/Wed so I foresee intensification as it rips negatively out into the north Atlantic. Tremendous RRQ lift from the St Law Valley 250MB 180 speed max.

For the drought monitor weenies. We’re at only about 2” for the month from here to CON.