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I saw that on the AI ensemble. What he conveniently left out is that that trough does not amplify and just sort of broadens and flatten out because of another kicker in the flow and also the fast flow period. it’s not a 0% chance, but I think the 15th is still a low probability. For us anyways.

I’m so ready for El Niño next year. Hope to never see La Niña again lol

They seem to be more common in El Nino events, maybe the more active STJ is a requirement for these?

People only like him because it’s always positive all the time. Nobody on this forum likes reality.

Seems like a fringe case. I'm not sure if we'll make the threshold.

It’s completely clickbait lol. People are really digging to the bottom of the barrel to find some fake positivity

What a beautiful day to work in the yard. Sunshine and no wind! 48 here.

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

My question is this….Are we possibly missing an elephant in the room here? I think there is another underlying reason other than the virtually nonexistent STJ (from La Niñas) that the last couple of winters have had a total lack of “KU”, coastal bombs in this region….the Gulf Stream. Look at how anomalously far south/east and well off shore it has been….it pushes the baroclinic zone way far east and south. Also, the unusual, very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east, well off shore along the displaced Gulf Stream

The name itself is clickbait, not a good start

I find him nauseating....he's always hyper-defensive and I'm quite certain his mid-January storm potential will go down the toilet.

Why do we keep referencing other people that do not appear to be a member and/or contributor in here ? not sure what the purpose of that is for. are we supposed be oohing and in awe of their content? or are we supposed to be impressed that you know this person

The torch spots are melted out now, as warm as it is out there right now it'll probably be mostly gone by this time tomorrow. Next...!

Of course! Nothing to get giddy about unless it's inside 5 days. Right now, it's just fun to look at during a slow day at work.

We get teased with these mega-overrunning scenarios, but they just seems way to complicated to ever pull off

Incoming snowmageddon at 348 GFS. You wanna look....ya know ya do.

ICON looks great! Love seeing runs showing more potential!!

I'm almost positive I'm going to have some remarks about this post, but I've said it before and I'll say it again, I really do like this particular guy. To me. He's not one of those social media idiots who have no clue about meteorology. This guy is the real deal. That's just my opinion. I really like what he has to say and what he's been saying for the last 2 months and he hasn't wavered yet. Again, really not worried about the comments. I'll get about this, just think it's some real good info and something to to really consider.

12Z GEFS shows a progressive trough moving off the coast. No big coastal storm for next week.

Looks like there will be storms over the next few weeks but who knows who does best.

Yup, 16th is a Miller A that's wide right.

but there's no reason to believe it's not either. It's a crap shoot!

And Ray's favorite, a Miller A, developing later on. Just fantasy, but funny stuff. Would surely crush the south/Mid Atlantic

A key ingredient for any legitimate snowstorm in these parts.