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I get the whole wanting to get clicks and money thing (the east coast is a populated area with a bigger market)…. But for me as a skier I want a realistic forecast, not wishcasting or doom casting. That’s why I don’t pay attention to what they are saying on social media, I have a select few people I listen to on here and elsewhere and block out the noise when it comes to winter forecasts. I care about results and track record, so clickbaiters like JB don’t get my views. I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but I do think you are correct that the super Nino + -PDO = snowy narrative is a load of horseshit for several reasons: 1. 57-58 and 65-66 happened in an older, cooler climate. 57-58 in particular I looked at the temp profiles, and they were more borderline than cold east, it isn’t clear to me one way or another whether a repeat of that pattern would favor a snowy outcome in today’s climate. It’s not like 14-15 where a repeat of that would be cold + snowy east today. 2. Those years are cherry-picked. I haven’t heard one peep about 72-73 and 23-24, which were also -PDO super El Niños and horrific winters in the east. If you are going to be objective, you include all the -PDO strong or super El Niño years, not just the ones you like. Cherry-picking data to push a narrative is something I cannot stand, I see this bullshit all the time in sports too with young players and or prospects. What I and or others want to happen is irrelevant, the data is the data, and it is unscientific to cherry pick to fit a narrative. Also, weren’t those cherry picked years more strongly -NAO (I’m pretty sure 65-66 was)? From my understanding the part of the solar cycle we are in favors more of a neutral to positive NAO, not negative (this was brought up last year, and the NAO was indeed slightly positive this past winter. Actually the past few winters have been +NAO). Chucks NAO formula last I checked predicts an NAO close to neutral (Chuck, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong here). I know there are mixed signals, but the point is there isn’t really much support for the NAO to be as negative like it was during some of the snowier big Nino years. I would consider that to be a big issue when years like say 09-10 are brought up as well.

And all they do is smoke bongs, saw logs , and copy cold summer tweets they find . When will they admit the obvious?

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (2022) NYC: 97 (2010) LGA: 98 (2022) JFK: 97 (2010) Lows: EWR: 55 (1947) NYC: 56 (1893) LGA: 59 (1992) JFK: 58 (1997) Historical: 1886 - Rain fell at Lawrence, KS, for the first time in four weeks. Rain fell over much of the state of Kansas that day relieving a severe drought which began in May. The very dry weather ruined crops in Kansas. (David Ludlum) 1931: Searing heat prevailed in the San Joaquin Valley in California. Many locations saw highs of 110 °F or better from the 21st through the 26th. Highs on this date reached 114 °F at Bakersfield, 113 °F at Hanford, 112 °F at Madera and 111 °F Wasco. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1934: A terrible heat wave settled over much of the Midwest. South Bend, IN and Chicago, IL set their all-time high temperature records of 109 °F and 105 °F respectively. Lansing, MI equaled their all-time high temperature of 102°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1936 - A record all time Kansas state high temperature set just 6 days earlier was tied in the town of Alton, located in Osborne County. (US National Weather Service Wichita) 1936: The state maximum temperature record for Kansas was equaled today at Alton, Kansas which was 121 °F. The state maximum temperature record for Nebraska was also equaled today at Minden, Nebraska which was 118 °F. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1942 - The temperature at Las Vegas, NV, hit 117 degrees to set an all-time record for that location. The record was tied on July 19, 2005. 1947 - One of the most powerful strokes of lightning ever measured yielded 345,000 amperes of electricity in Pittsburgh, PA. (The Weather Channel) 1952 - The temperature at Louisville, GA, soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1979: The name Claudette has been used for six tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. This Claudette, a weak tropical storm, deluged southeastern Texas with torrential rains. The Houston suburb of Alvin received 43 inches, a 24-hour record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) 1984: Only four days of 90 °F heat for July in Washington, DC, the least since 1962 then only two. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1980 - Claudette, a weak tropical storm, deluged southeastern Texas with torrential rains. The Houston suburb of Alvin received 43 inches, a 24 hour record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 91 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their hottest reading in 25 years of records, and marked their third straight day of record 90 degree heat. Bakersfield, CA, dipped to 60 degrees, marking their eighth straight morning of record cool weather. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Oklahoma, and over Nebraska and Wisconsin. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Brainerd, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced some flash flooding in New Mexico. Albuquerque, NM, was deluged with an inch and a half of rain in forty minutes. Evening thunderstorms soaked Whie Pine, PA, with two inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: A severe thunderstorm struck southern Hyde County, SD including the city of Highmore, with winds in excess of 60 mph and heavy rains of 2 to 4 inches. Near Stephan, an estimated 4 inches of rain fell in 20 minutes causing flood damage around a bridge. 3 to 9 inches of rain caused widespread flash flooding and flood damage to Day, Roberts, and southeastern Marshall Counties. A state of emergency was declared in Sisseton. The heavy rains overwhelmed a small creek that flows through Sisseton, swelling it to three blocks wide and up to 5 feet deep. Flood damage occurred to 70% of all buildings in Sisseton, including 100 homes. Roads and bridge damage was also extensive in Roberts, Day, and Marshall Counties with about 50 roads and bridges in Day County damaged by the flooding.HR> The line of thunderstorms exploded over southeast Nebraska then advanced into Iowa at nearly 60 mph. An amazing two inches of rain fell in 30 minutes at Council Bluffs. Winds of 70 mph or greater were widespread across western Iowa. 75 mph winds also struck southeast of Treynor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: Severe thunderstorms slashed through west and south Oklahoma City, OK just after midnight, leaving 175,000 people without power. Cleanup from downed trees took several weeks. Will Rogers Airport reported a wind gust of 97 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A wet microburst centered over eastern Presidio, TX caused extensive damage over portions of the city. The winds destroyed 7 mobile homes and damaged up to 50 homes, businesses, and a school. Wind estimates put the speeds at up to 100 mph in the worst damage. Power was out for about 5.5 hours in parts of the city. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: Lightning struck five rescue personnel as they rendered aid to occupants of an overturned truck along Interstate 15 near Sloan, NV. As the storm moved north, outflow winds estimated at 65 - 70 mph were observed by a NWS meteorologist near Lake Mead Drive and Interstate 15. Before dissipating, the thunderstorm produced another lightning strike which set fire to an apartment building in Henderson. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2007: Miles City, Montana: Miles City hits 110°F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2008: A tornado fluctuated between the category EF1 and the more destructive EF2 strikes Northwood and Pittsfield, as well as nine other towns in New Hampshire. It first touches down in Deerfield, then travels through Northwood, Epsom, Pittsfield, Barnstead, and Alton. From there, it rages through New Durham, Wolfeboro, Freedom, Ossipee, and Effingham. The storm destroys several homes, damaged dozens of others and kills at least one person. 2010: The 105 °F recorded at the Richmond International Airport today ties the highest maximum temperature ever recorded in July in Richmond. The high of 105 °F and low of 79 °F today yields a daily average temp of 92.0 °F which breaks the all-time daily mean temp of 91.5. Thus making today the hottest day ever recorded in the past 113 years for Richmond. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) This highest temperature ever recorded for July of 105 °F has occurred on two other dates. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) DCA soared to a record 102 °F on the 7th and 101 °F on the 24th. BWI recorded record high temperatures on 4 days: 6th (105 °F), 7th (101 °F), 24th (101 °F) and 25th (100 °F) BWI had on 5 days above 100 °F making the most on record. At or above 90 °F on 44 days in 2010 at DCA, most number of days through July on record. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1 2012: Tuesday morning’s July 24, 2012 a severe thunderstorm with widespread 60-70mph winds in the Chicago area knocked out power to 300,000 at the peak. It was a bad storm with 55-70mph winds in Oak Park, IL again! From Tom Skilling’s blog - - - The line broke up over Blacksburg and Richmond and then reformed along the Eastern shore of Virginia !

75 / 57 day 2 of the 4 day gorgeous stretch low - mid 80s through Sunday - sunny. Trough brings next front Mon and it looks to linger around till Wed with on off rain / showers and storms and another >1 inche of rain for many. Beyond there a similar nice / dry stretch into later next week. Heat capped in the west and south. Heat from the west starts coming east as EC heights rise in the 8/3 - beyond with a moderation to an overall warmer with next heat spike.

With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.

A nice plate of liver to fill you up before you head home too. Can you imagine winter in here with everyone having high T? Not sure I want to be here for that.

Are you new here?

48 here this am in the Poconos, Beautiful. Nothing beats natural a.c.

Lol. You tank up for $150 and you receive a free testosterone injection from drunken Pete. What a deal for real ‘Mericans..

Used in calculating if there is a significant difference in expected vs. observed frequencies… or as I tell my students, inferential statistics tests, such as this, the t-test, or a Mann-Whitney tell you if your results actually mean something or if you got them by accident…

Wet

heh...some afterthoughts.. It's primarily used in experimenting theorems - create a model based upon a theory that describes how whatever in nature being observed, works. Then, feed it inputs, test the output for significance (chi test) against the other result that occurred naturally. If the output ( as it goes...) lands on .05, and in particular, there was pig ton of data going into the the test ( sample size) then one's theory that describes the system is robust. Blah blah blah, but what is fascinating about the the last 20 years of human folly we lovingly refer to as "civility" ... arguably the more advanced technologically we are getting, "civility" as a qualitative distinction is eroding in proportion... That's A. B, the reason for that is that ( perhaps conjecture) is the law of lessening returns ...together with perhaps the natural low of least physical action. Together, human kind expresses there background forcing as having spontaneously created this refrain that if one does not understand complexity, than it is automatically insignificant - therefore, they don't have to obey any rationalism that should merely even suggest they deviate their course. Which leads us perhaps to C, the precise mechanism in the Fermi Paradox explanation that our species is now on a collision course with...

Am I the only one who can’t read these because the HTML formatting is coming thru? .

I lean ACATT by preference (not forecasting) but think we'll finish July AN, thanks to its first 4 days. 7/1-4 was 10.3° AN while the next 19 days have run 0.6° BN and I think the remainder will be close to norms here. Enter August 2, 1975! PWM: 103 BGR: 102 BHB: 100 at water's edge. All 3 all-timers. Since my first swim in Maine salt water (August 1952), Hot Saturday is my only time of swimming in actual warm salt water here, just south of Otter Cliffs in Acadia.

Did a few assignments in my Quantitative Analysis class using R recently. Fun stuff...interesting programming language.

we’ve been trying to tell them

Yeah, this is a nice change following the record heat. The July normals have been increasing steadily across the area. So an average finish near 78.2° at a spot like Newark is still the 26th warmest July. The last time we finished in the top 20s for a cool July was 2009. So departures this month would be higher if the departures were fixed at period like 1961-1990 or even 1951-2000. Adjusting the departures warmer every 10 years really masks or normalizes the long term warming. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Warmest Average Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 2025 82.1 0 6 1994 81.9 0 7 2024 81.3 0 8 2013 80.9 0 9 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 10 2023 80.6 0 - 2019 80.6 0 11 1955 80.5 0 12 1988 80.4 0 13 2002 80.0 0 14 2016 79.9 0 15 1887 79.8 0 16 1983 79.6 0 - 1966 79.6 0 17 1995 79.5 0 - 1949 79.5 0 18 2026 79.4 8 - 2006 79.4 0 - 1987 79.4 0 19 1981 79.2 0 - 1952 79.2 0 20 2015 79.0 0 21 2021 78.8 0 - 1980 78.8 0 - 1878 78.8 0 22 2008 78.7 0 23 1973 78.6 0 24 1876 78.5 0 25 2005 78.3 0 - 1982 78.3 0 26 2018 78.2 91-20 Mean Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Coolest Average Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1859 70.3 0 2 1862 71.0 0 3 1867 71.1 0 4 1860 71.3 0 5 1871 71.6 0 6 1895 71.7 0 - 1861 71.7 0 7 1884 71.8 0 - 1857 71.8 0 8 1869 72.2 0 9 1902 72.5 0 - 1865 72.5 0 10 1864 72.6 0 11 1904 72.7 0 - 1888 72.7 0 12 1914 72.9 0 13 1923 73.0 0 - 1875 73.0 0 14 1956 73.1 0 - 1863 73.1 0 15 1853 73.3 0 16 1922 73.4 0 17 1858 73.5 0 18 1909 73.6 0 - 1893 73.6 0 - 1874 73.6 0 19 2000 73.7 0 - 1903 73.7 0 20 1996 73.8 0 - 1962 73.8 0 - 1933 73.8 0 - 1918 73.8 0 - 1899 73.8 0 21 1920 73.9 0 - 1915 73.9 0 22 2001 74.1 0 - 1945 74.1 0 23 1969 74.2 0 - 1967 74.2 0 - 1873 74.2 0 24 2009 74.3 0

52.9F for low in Lancaster. .

Oh, o-kay. I see. yeah, and that's going to be dubious for obvious reasons. Of course, muah hahaha if it is a climate threshold being breached. Ha. I guess that would be easily sussed out though if we looked at all sites and if they all exhibited the same behavior than the ( speak of the devil) significance of that above would be more useful.

It was a white pine. I’m not entirely sure but the root ball does appear to have some rot and be a bit bundled. Maybe I’ll take a picture of the exposed root ball later and post it here and you can give me your thoughts. We do have a couple more of these pines but not quite as large or leaning.

Ya I was about to say the same exact thing,

If we’re not all dropped to D1 or D0 I’d be surprised from triangle to your way. I too have had over 6” this week alone and now over a foot for the month with more coming

Low of 54. Perfect days. Happy Friday.

The thing to do would be compare the BOS max and min departures with the other sites going back to spring 2025 and seeing if they start deviating last fall.

This is what I was referring to. If this is how someone makes their seasonal forecast, you should immediately unsubscribe from them.