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I thought even on radiational cooling nights, the water can still influence the air temps nearby. For example, in the fall, on radiational cooling nights, being less than a mile from the water I will be a few degrees warmer than places in east Central Queens, away from both the Sound and the Atlantic. And it's not a matter of more or less urbanity, both locations are basically the same look wise.

This is great research as always. Gives credence to the theory, at least we aren’t burning good snowfall climo with a crap pattern. Will hurt the ski resorts and delay onset of winter, but if it was December 16 and the indices were trending the way they are we’d be in trouble

We do wind pretty well around here lately

Disagree we shall see

Me randomly posting about how nice it is to be in a “different world”?

Personally, I don’t get antsy before mid December. Now at the tail end of my 79th year, sustained snow and cold has almost never happened before that.

Okey dokey. Its coming my good friend.

But it matches the mjo progression . Hopefully the other models catch on.

Idk, could be.

Islip doesn’t get hard freezes this time of year down to 28° with strong enough winds off the ocean anyway. It usually occurs with offshore flow or radiational cooling. So it’s more a reflection of the lack of cold across North America this fall.

GFS is a nice way to load in the cold after Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, it’s a GFS op.

The big late-week system is now gone from the GFS. The southwest energy has been slowing while the energy moving along the Canada border has been speeding up and digging a bit more, so the wet cutter gets squashed.

The classic S-N moving overrunning event...the models even today underestimate those events here, especially from central LI westward though the Euro did well it was somewhat ignored in favor of the the NAM/GFS.

I'll take the under

True. It’s a getting close to winter month but not quite there yet.

How are the SSTs off the coast of Islip? Aren't they perpetually above normal? Islip might not be a good location to use as a metric anymore since they're tainted by the warm water.

Is this the same plunge of air he said was bullshit last week?

About a dozen of them stopped traffic on Route 1 at about 4 pm, busiest time.

Timing wise the first 32° in NYC usually occurs around a similar time of the first hard freeze of 28° at ISP and HPN. So those similar benchmarks for fall cold still haven’t been met at those locations either. The most noteworthy lack of cold is a little further inland at SMQ. They still haven’t reached 25° for their normally colder location which is currently 3rd latest since 1999.

2 inches at the house, close to 5 inches at the groomer barn, will be curious to see how much kokadjo got when we get there this afternoon, thinking maybe close to 7? Good for a groomer test.

What sucks for us is that it's warmer now. I'd rather have colder averages and take my chances with storm tracks.

Have I mentioned how much I hate wind?

So far, LaGuardia has had a 47 mph gust and Newark has had a 45 mph gust.

Power outages increasing nw NJ now

Its only November. I dont know why people are worried about whats coming next month . This month was always supposed to be mild.