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Is there even any ice threat anymore ? Hope it’s not totally over

Btw who remembers this storm. Happened in mid March

I am all in. Let's go...

Before we deal with winter weather again possibly we have some severe weather to deal with.

Likewise, 37/31 light east wind down 2 each in last hour.

Robots seem to have a warm lean in my opinion. Early next week should be a good test to the theory(maybe they score one).

It hasn’t been a year with much of that…everything has been in close..mostly a week or under.

Awesome, I’m sure that translates to copious amounts of snow on the models and ensembles. Let me go check!

100 years ago? to the day?

My only beef with March and April variability is that my sinuses can’t take the delayed, slow drag through pollen season. If it were warm this next week and into the extended range, we’d rip the bandaid off.

Jeez, you have been warm for hours, my Davis hit 43F/ now showing 37F, light wind.

https://x.com/judah47/status/2029596864182452288 Judah Cohen @judah47 I can't emphasize this enough. Yes a #PolarVortex (PV) split happened but the predicted #cold for 3rd week of March in Eastern US isn't related to the classical downward influence. Instead it's our familiar friend the PV stretch, textbook looking at 100mb, NAO is raging positive!

Yeah I saw those, ok I suppose, but nothing too crazy yet

um yeah it does obviously like i said it's not anywhere the same but it has it

Definitely getting an increase in ENE winds now despite similar sky conditions. Down to 44.7

You sure you’re not thinking about 2022?

Euro op and AIFS are just about the coldest guidance at the sfc tonight. Euro op has definitely been cold biased at night lately, but i havent really noticed it with AIFS. Gonna be interesting to see how well it advects southwest.

Long as it stays active I don’t care if it’s warm or chilly in March. I can’t stand boring weather in March bc it’s typically such a volatile month. And we still need rain

Anthony posted a couple yesterday.

The first half of next week looks interesting with a strong north-displaced zonal flow. That’s the best pattern for getting steep mid-level lapse rates up into the Great Lakes.

These usually “bust” on the warmer side when you are waiting for cold air to advect in…sometimes they work out. But I’d want to see an acceleration of the better airmass and more importantly, I want to see big omega tonight.

We'll be teased with a marginal or slight risk Wednesday poking into Fairfield County

I think were fine if we get decent rates. Euro op looked fairly flaccid, but AI increased qpf. 44 to 38 here with a ne breeze, same for lwm

One would think you’d see some big clown range OP hits if the mid month period is going to be anything worth while.

You’re going to need a good, sustained push of CAA in the zr zone because of latent heat release. 3-5” in the max sn zone looks good to me…either side of an AFN-BVY line. If there’s a junk +1C layer aloft that could wreck havoc on the southern end of that if you’re battling junk precip for awhile.