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Mild approaching the mid 60s and dews

that's a good point. Didn't consider that. I tell you what ...I bet now that we're in the solar max we may still do better. I'll let it ride and take the hit if I'm wrong. I'm still thinking 77's doable but yeah. Part of my thinking is that we're facing a pretty significant built in correction vector, one with an explosively long room, too. As an aside, this really is an impressive wholesale change coming after tomorrow Just sayn', 2-m in NAM's 69 at ORH and 71 BED at 18z. That's garbage under near full sun and superb wind direction during a summer mixing profile. BL is gonna get tall. We all know FIT/ASH/BED are 6 F warmer than ORH in that setting. Granted MET MOS is 75 so ... it's a nerd's quibble.

.50" blockbuster

Maybe but the heaviest is and will be East . Just light stuff left

Also, entertaining low grade heat wave Mon-Wed. 89-92 variety... close. Subtle yet crucially amplifying ridge heights are situated nicely for deep layer heat transport in recent multi-source guidance. It could tick more pronounced yet, too. Also, no BD or N-door frontal sag until perhaps too late on Wed to matter. Meanwhile, 850s are steadily improving from 10 all the way to 16c thru the weekend prior, and the general cloud RH fields are < 60% so sun soaking after elevating successive launch temperatures. Not big heat by very warm. Civility taken off guard a little...despite technical above average April it really has not sensibly appealed that way.

Only caveat may be we’re going to sobbing wet up here with standing puddles. It may be difficult to get good surface warming in rural areas…especially where 2”+ rain falls.

I'd use MAV for Saturday. METs not high enough for those synoptic params. If you look at the 850s warming from 15 thru 21z in a pocket just E of over the water, that's actually mixed diurnal plume leaving the coast - which means the mix hgt actually made that level. It's 10C, and the adiabtic extrapolation to 1000 mb is 22.5 ...so the mandatory 2 to 3 slope addition to the real sfc yields closer to 25 C ( 77), which is what the MAV sports. That could also be a deg shy, too

You’re in the axis. More rain cometh.

50.2° 1.28” in the last 24hrs

May 14 2013: Minneapolis sets a record high temperature of 98 degrees, breaking the previous record of 95 set in 1932. For Thursday, May 14, 2026 1896 - The mercury plunged to 10 degrees below zero at Climax, CO. It was the lowest reading of record for the U.S. during the month of May. (David Ludlum) 1898 - A severe thunderstorm, with some hailstones up to 9.5 inches in circumference, pounded a four mile wide path across Kansas City MO. South-facing windows were broken in nearly every house in central and eastern parts of the city, and several persons were injured. An even larger hailstone was thought to have been found, but it turned out to be a chunk of ice tossed out the window of a building by a prankster. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Seven cities across the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as unseasonably hot weather made a comeback. The record high of 103 degrees at Sacramento CA was their ninth in eleven days, and also marked a record seven days of 100 degree heat for the month. Their previous record was two days of 100 degree heat in May. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sunny and dry weather prevailed across the nation. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the Great Plains Region and the Mississippi Valley. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather in south central Texas and the Southern High Plains Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail at Spearman and Hitchcock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwest Texas to western Missouri. Severe thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including nine in Texas. Four tornadoes in Texas injured a total of nine persons. Thunderstorms in Texas also produced hail four inches in diameter at Shamrock, and hail four and a half inches in diameter near Guthrie. Thunderstorms over northeastern Kansas produced more than seven inches of rain in Chautauqua County between 9 PM and midnight. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Grass is becoming mowable, but trees are behind in budding. Warmer temps in the 60-70's this weekend with W to SW winds will accelerate that process (like watching corn grow). Looks like NE winds, and a chance for showers/stm Sunday aftrn.

Hopefully .2” there and 2” here

Just crazy how 3 days ago it was an inch and we couldn't even squeeze out a tenth of that

WTF

Yea I was talking about field corn and soybean planting. As far as planting my garden. I planted my potatoes about 2 weeks ago. There not up yet. Just planted stringbeans and peas e days ago. I should have some sweet corn planted by now, but that ground is too cold yet. And now just had .88 rain last night. And my garden is in the bottom land next to a creek. Last night during the thunderstorm my garden was basically underwater. If it would be a sunny day today and temps in the 70's I could get in the garden later today. But with a completely overcast sky and cool temps that won't be the case today. Hopefully it warms up soon and stays.

Yep, as expected very little rain. I got only .03" here.

Euro AI is washout for all of memorial day weekend. We really need that.

Some potential beginning to show up next week with more consistent warmth and moisture setting in. Multiple days are showing up both on the CIPS and the CSU prediction models, the SPC also gave a mention On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

This is a good page WRAL put together to track rainfall at RDU: https://www.wral.com/weather/page/1934052/ Going back 6 months you can see all the months under 1” total for the month. Insane deficits and we’re going the wrong direction still

Missed this one earlier. I think that graphic hits the nail on the head, and is in agreement with AccuWeather's seasonal graphic. I think the NY/PA border or just north of it may be where the fronts roll along and the most of PA probably stays pretty dry.

We picked up 0.44" here in East Nantmeal since last night, Cool and breezy today before we start a nice warming trend. Some lower valley spots may touch 90 by next Tuesday. Higher ridge locations are likely to remain in the mid to upper 80's. We will likely see a return to cooler temps toward the end of next week. Our next chance of rain looks to be toward mid-week.

We picked up 0.44" here in East Nantmeal since last night, Cool and breezy today before we start a nice warming trend. Some lower valley spots may touch 90 by next Tuesday. Higher ridge locations are likely to remain in the mid to upper 80's. We will likely see a return to cooler temps toward the end of next week. Our next chance of rain looks to be toward mid-week.

I actually did just such a deep dive into for example the NWS COOP station at Coatesville 1SW below shows any bias would only have potentially been present from 1910-1921. So not significant based on the 89 years of history for that station.

Stein here

My wifes family is 2 generation farming family (Pine View Dairy for those that know the area). They told me many moons ago that safe bet was memorial day for planting. I think because of the many warm springs that've been sprinkled in, it has moved up the planting timeframe, but to the peril of the planter. Spring hasnt changed that much, that its worth the gamble imo. I see sweet corn already 4-6" tall near my house, but thats much smaller scale gamble than a few hundred acres of regular corn. Fruit folks, totally diff ballgame (and not a good one this year). Hope yall are doing well.