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Yeah we definitely do not want this thing closing (at H5) too early. I think we'd even want it to be a bit farther north than Norfolk in a perfect world. But if we can dig that trough slightly more west and deeper that would certainly help tug this west a bit. However, thinking about this more closely, I question as to whether we would want this to dig more west and deep...if that happens we could run the risk of tracking this up right along the coast or even slightly inland.

whatever Euro AI shows today, I will go with that forecast!

We got NAM'd!

I don’t see any reason to speak very definitively when you’re at approx 120 hours. People were very definitively saying our fail mode was suppression for the last storm not much beyond 120 hours. Things can and do change fast at this range. We’re still in the game.

I will keep watching through tomorrow for any improvement. Realistically, this currently has an eastern shore bullseye potential but tracking is fun so I go with it. By the way, rescheduled my appointment from the 26th to the 22nd so lock in the 22nd for our blizzard!

Interesting to see EPS and GEFS are trending in opposite directions. GEPS sits pretty happily in the middle

Low was 9.3 at 7:30 am. Up to 14 currently. Going to go out and chip out some left over snow at the end of the drive in the street that the plow ran over. The older Ms. J in DC got another day of campus closed and zoom classes. The younger Ms. J in PA will be trucking across campus for classes as campus is open today. Told her welcome to school in the North. Told her my memory of walking to class at my school in NW Ohio and got into the building with my eye lashes frozen together due to the wind chill.

For those of us still locked up because of unplowed streets, fortunately Uber Toilet Paper delivery is on the job!

That's the jackpot. You can get snow effect snow from any wind direction.

Modeling struggles with depth of cold and Baroclinic processes. Putting a 518 abreast the gulf stream in SC is as rare as it gets. That stall is not real.

#8 all-time storm here in Boston. Hard to complain about that. With this one wrapped up and on the books, 5 of the top 10 storms all-time for Boston will have come since 2013.

Dig more west, or not so deep? I think we want closure closer to Norfolk rather than Myrtle Beach. Maybe digging west accomplishes the same thing?

I'd grade it today...def. not an A+ IMO because I was a bit too far NE with max zone....First Call was actually better on that.

Lol, I saw that and it makes zero sense. There is in fact snow cover over eastern Kentucky and West Virginia - that's typical upslope snow from there south into E TN/ W NC. The satellite imagery isn't blue there, because there's overcast skies. If anything, it looks like the snow cover is suppressing clouds. Maybe the differential heating is contributing to the cumulus buildup south of the snowpack, but that's not the same process as lake effect snow. The flurries on radar earlier are clearly from a weak "disturbance" that moved in from Arkansas.

Same! Pretty stiff and sharp’ish pain on one side, but doing some sit-ups and planks helps loosen mine up.

Low of 1 Degree here at my House. -2 and Minus 3 reported in parts of the County.

A smart man would never extrapolate the end of the NAM

Thanks for ctaching that JTGFS AI AIGFS: EURO AI AIFS:

NEVER EVER UTTER THESE WORDS

We still doing this?

I'm not out. Things could trend back the right way. I'd say if by end of day tomorrow it's considerably offshore it's time to turn out the lights. But if all we need is a 100-200 mile shift then we can get that as we approach the event.

Someone smarter than me can extrapolate the NAM. But it looked like it has potential at the end?

Cape Cod and not a hair further west. Boston will get fringed.

Right, but he was agreeing with me, so that's why I replied. No biggie.