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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow The first 14 days of August have blasted through the previous record for the Aug 1-14 period globally.

:-(. Like the fact that your thermostat can tell you that. Have you checked the Capacitor? if blower motor, I would think it is a little more expensive than just capacitor, but not as much as a coil. Not an expert here, but just guessing from the issues I have seen in the past.

Maybe due to monster GOA Low.

steined again with 0.03" 0.40" total for the month

Same. Seems like we need Above Normal in Alaska for central and especially eastern CONUS to get Below Normal.

Thermostat says the blower motor faulted for us. Seems like that should be a straightforward repair? But I’m nervous because when we had hvac issues in summer 2021 it turned into a 22 visit (yes, 22) summer-long fucking debacle.

Mine has been down since the 9th. Luckily I have a different unit upstairs so it hasn't been too bad. Also have a room unit on wheels in the middle of the first floor keeping it mostly cooler. The coil had a leak and lost all the freon and is being replaced today. Lucky it was covered under warranty, but the labor isn't. :-(

Same here-only potted plants needed watering-never seen my lawn look this good in mid August. Only got about .15 here last night. First time busting low in a long time.

Tough look which makes Elias look like a genius. Need a larger sample size to truly rate the transaction.

You didn't ask me but I suspect the US Drought Monitoring product should be taken with a grain of salt due to the subjective inclusion of personal scientist(s) opinions. The product is a smoothed sort of mean between machine/climate/man Heh, a an afterthought, what the last 20 .. 30 years of overly exposed information has been revealing about humanity is that how we used to think of as stone by the time information became ubiquitously known, is and always was suspect. We can't trust PHDs of science... Judges of the Court ... CEOs? forfuckumgetit! Some are well intended, but even they are human - the rest are giant piles of agenda-guided rectal plaque. It's all made interminably more frustrating because well crafted social media content is also so often completely wrong baseless crap that 90% of civility doesn't possess enough analytic capability to adjudicate ... It's kind of ironic that this being the age of information is really evolved or mutated into the "age of disinformation" The problem with these last decades is that (and probably is a good thing because it never should have been ) it teaches us to distrust both specific people, forces us to ponder how far does that extend to the over-arcing apparatuses of the "institution" too - Now, with "Epsteinian" collusive forces that are (c'mon man, don't be naive) clearly integrating a reality that we are in fact guided sheep, corruption in all forms and colors - opinions are part of that - is now only a incompletely certain to morons. So yeah... we can trust the US DM "a little" more than RFK's MAHA health reforms. Anyway, the drought guide is in part machine, and then modulated by opinions of officers in the subject. This latter aspect in kinder terms leaves it open to debate. But regionally? the farmers know

Our HVAC broke last evening so yeah, strong agree from me

0.62 inches.

So, the overwhelming majority opinion is that given the super duper el-Nino and warming background state, we will have a warm and unsnowy winter, a la 1998. Frankly, I am in the 1998 camp myself....with perfect benchmark lows that give us no snow, as alluded to by Weathafella a few posts back. Tell me what can go "wrong" here. Are there feasible scenarios where this winter might overachieve? After all, history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men!

Need a cold front, pronto.

So wait. The RRFS is known to have “bugs” with the FV3 core and it can’t be fixed until 2028, but we’re retiring the NAM soon anyway?

I think I'd like to see that just because we don't seem to get coastal storms worth a shit nearly as often as yester-decades. The general dearth of ... something, anything really to substantiate and qualitatively argue for even having this hobby has become very challenging. Otherwise? have fun with 4 and half months in dark mud season stern.

Picked up .49" rainfall last 24 hours. August up to 5.47" here. Everything green as could be. I honestly don't think I've watered anything but some flowers in pots that are in full sun since late May. Have not had to water the lawn at all since late May. If we can just have modest rains for the next 6 weeks or so to wrap up the growing season that would be great. Daylight getting noticeably shorter now both morning and evening. Will start to drop off quickly as we get into early September. While not over by any means Summer is on the run.

That would be a real stretch here, as benchmark-track storms are usually whiffs or grazes. The big midwinter wind/rain events like Jan 10 & 13, 2024 come with lows a lot closer. The forecast 1/2-1" rain is a no show - now it's progged for >0.1".

Outside of a couple quick hitting rain events, this summer has completed lacked any appreciable storms or even showers. Bone dry around here overall. A pond people fish at locally now only has water around the middle. Pretty crazy, never seen that. Rocks and all kinds of stuff exposed

Not sure who is expecting a cold/snowy winter. I would think most know what's coming.

40's n 50's around the area this morning. Low 40's for some inland n upper 50's near shore, so quite the spread. Low 80's in town yesterday. Was nice sitting outside with family for my granddaughters birthday. One thing I've noticed this year is no movement of geese yet. Not uncommon to have small flocks on the move about now. The last few years, I notice a flock or two about once a week. In a couple weeks they will be moving a bit more, for sure. Summer is rapidly coming to an end, and it already has hints of Fall with it.

Ended up with 0.09" in the rain gauge last night. And half of that was probably condensation from from how gross it is outside.

triggered

You were correct ! A Flash Flood Warning was issued here last night and early morning. Training cells for almost an hour. 1.42 of rain here. 3 inches for the month so far. Pattern looks active later in the week. WPC https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd