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Tomorrow looks active for the SE portion of this region for sure.

a certain poster mysteriously disappeared when millions of people got a massive blizzard in late february.

Euro seasonals(July version) sure have that flavor.

CSU 7/7/26 update: This forecast is predicting the weakest season since 2013. I wouldn’t at all mind a break here in the very hard hit SE overall since 2016. “We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.” https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-07.pdf

I was out on the golf course ... we ended up paired up with an 8th grade teacher and his son in-law. Long about hole 8 or so the teacher began commiserating over the dumbing down of society. He was urging, no exaggeration, that working in a medium economic foot print school system that he does ... these kids can't do math. Like, really... 13X14 = a trip to chapGPT or they're lost. And the school system(s) are overwhelmed. They can't flunk whole grades-worth of bulk bodies. I mean ... my god. It came about because I was railing on about how since the Industrial Revolution, we've created a societal machinery where people have to think less and less - they're mistakes are cleaned up by the system.. so generational stupification ..etc He was musing on about how climate change this, nuclear wars that... the next covid or alien invasion ...? it's all going to pale in comparison when that generation starts inheriting the Earth "you have no idea" where the apocalypse agent is really hiding. it's morbidly amusing

Could be a dirty filter, or having the temp control(thermostat) set to run the fan all the time(On) instead of setting it to Auto.

I had to zoom in pretty far to make out the new icon image. At first I thought it was crab.

It’s real https://www.fox8live.com/2026/06/27/heat-humidity-this-weekend-storms-return-mid-week/

With some of the hardcore warminstas in there, yeah anything positive posted (cold/snow) about the upcoming winter will probably earn you a weenie.

85 degrees DP 69 I’M sweating…wheel barrowing topsoil 700 cubic feet.

I think it's justified. Lapse rates and instability are modest, but shear is workable, and convection should be organized and timed well for our area. CAMs all look pretty good. Friday has some potential too.

The 12z GFS was very robust to our north with the EML plume middle of next week. It's focused up into PA but it's been jumping around a lot and varying in intensity the past handful of runs. This is the most impressive I've seen it depicted to this point. Large area of 8+ values up in PA. It then gets shunted off the coast without really getting across the M/D line (actually kind of comical how it kind of just stops at the border). This will be the thing to watch for severe chances next week.

I just posted this elsewhere: 1. Asheville temp. records go back to 1876 and thus include 1877-8. Whereas Dec was mild/AN at 43.6, Jan was actually snowy and cold/BN (35.2) and Feb was NN (39.8). So, DJF averaged 39.5, which is actually NN. In Jan, they had well above normal snow with 4” on the 4th and 4.5” on the 31st! They had a low of 7F on the 7th. So, I wonder why this source per your post said:The winter of 1877–1878 in North Carolina was remarkably warm, largely recognized as an exceptionally mild season brought on by a historic 'Super' El Niño event.This doesn’t at all jibe with this Asheville data and I haven’t found any data for any other locale in NC going that far back.Data from here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp —————2. Regarding other super-El Nino winters in the SE:-1888-8: Feb 1889 had a SE major snowstorm and was cold allowing for DJF to avg BN-1957-8: cold winter overall with cold in Jan and especially Feb. and was snowy overall, esp in Feb, which included deep SE-1965-6: cold winter overall thanks to quite cold in Jan and overall snowy in part of SE thanks to Jan/Feb-1972-3: historic ZR Jan N GA and vicinity; historic snowstorm Feb AL to NC, including deep SE; overall NN temps with BN Feb-1982-3: very snowy much of SE, including historic snow much of area in spring! ATL had biggest snowstorm as well as snowiest winter since 1939-40! It hasn’t been matched since! Overall NN temps.-1991-2: ATL and nearby had a major snowstorm in Jan. Otherwise it was a mild winter.-1997-8: NN temps overall with cold Dec, mild Jan, and NN Feb-2015-6: AN temps overall due to warmest on record Dec as JF were actually BN to NN—————In summary, -a super-Nino doesn’t point to an expected warm SE winter as only 2 of the 9 averaged mild in DJF. Only one, 1991-2, averaged mild throughout DJF.-Super El Niño winters tend to average mild in the N tier of the US, not the SE.-Dec will be favored to be AN as 6 of these 9 had a mild Dec, including the warmest on record-Jan/Feb averaged out will be favored to be BN with most of the 9 BN overall, with some quite cold months in some cases-AN wintry precip prospects are better than avg. All it takes is one major snow in the SE in many cases.-AN rainfall prospect is the best news of all due to the drought!

Bummer. Not even a dent.

The long range extended EPS really wants to dry out the Plains. This is a signal for the shorter term guidance to keep correcting stronger with the 500mb ridges and heat than what the longer range guidance has been showing. So it’s possible our area could continue to see repeating major heatwaves from time to time through at least the rest of July.

That kind of SSTA orientation in the N. Atlantic right now favors a -NAO Winter.

88...above forecast

I don’t think most people realize how dangerous this is at a societal level.

Might be able to sneak in a 90 today, gonna be super close… With dew-points in the 60s though it doesn’t feel too bad at all in the shade. Perfect summer day! That hot and muggy stretch last week really did a wonderful job of acclimatizing my body for deep summer heat. After a week full of mid-upper 70s DPs under my belt, my tolerance for upcoming heat has certainly gone up. Today was easy peazy.

Synoptic scaffolding of what's going on between the Azores and the Urals through that area of the hemisphere really argues for the apex of this current burst to be about 4 days from now.

Yes, but may have something to do with me turning the AC off and opening the windows. That said, I noticed it before turning it off. Imagine has something to do with the indoor and outdoor temperature (at least in my house) being equal, thus the AC not running as often and therefore not dehumidifying at the same level?

Well, hopefully those who saw them this past weekend won't see them again.

....I can't even begin to tell you how bad it is with hs students including athletes. We literally have to teach players how to pay attention and how to absorb and understand what is being taught.

It’s not nearly as hot as last week but I still suffered in the humidity while working in the yard. I’m getting soft in my old age.

Hopefully the outflow boundary delivers as it moves through Raleigh.