All Activity

The GFS is developing things late next week/following weekend, but the GFS has a bias and develops too many TCs. But some of the 0Z Euro ensembles are starting to show something as well. I think based on SSTs in the neighboring basins, a Pacific system is favored, but not guaranteed.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 147 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Damascus and Green Valley around 155 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Monrovia and Ijamsville.

Deja vu. TOR warned again. Pretty clearly rotating

Storm popping just to my north

Sun is peeking out here.

It's so tropical today Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You think far western ct is in the mix or should I go further west?

Actually it’s only 50 minutes away

It’s pouring rain again. I should I play the lottery today.

Absolutely..well said. Its important to acknowledge that there was some bad luck involved, too. As fleeting and few and far between as they were, we had some explosive windows that went for not.

leaving now. Lee only just over an hour away

came here to say this...

Thinking of going to Lee and then making a move from there. A little worried Albany may be too far north...especially since we'd prefer Troy since its a bit more open. May see some storms get into western Mass later on

Yeah it went just to my north

As someone who is extremely critical of the cold/snowy bias on many east coast winter forecasts, you are correct about last year. To put things in perspective, roughly 95% of winters fall inside of 2 standard deviations of normal. Last winter was not one of those winters. Climate change does skew things for sure, but last winter was the perfect storm of horrible pattern + bad luck + AGW. Everything aligned perfectly to deliver one of the mildest and least snowy winters recorded over the past 200 or so years. There is just no way to anticipate something THAT anomalous.

A couple cells forming now in Frederick and northern Carroll counties.

My opinion on why that is the case is two things: 1) You are right that people post most frequently about weather that is perceived as being intresting, which mild winters are not. 2) His posting style is very confrontational and not very welcoming...most of his interactions with others have a very incedinary, condescending undertone that invites conflict. People are turned off by that and try to avoid it...conflict is exhuasting and produces negative energy. And I know he doesn't care what people on an internet forum think of him, but it is what it is. Don't forget, I think the winter outlook thread with the most replies I have ever seen was @Stormchaserchuck1's "This will be the warmest winter on record" thread on Eastern back in the fall of 2006. Attitude has a lot to do with it....turn people off, and your work will be overlooked more because interaction with the author is viewed as a chore rather than purely an opportunity for enlightenment via a sharing of thoughts.

Dewpoint of 40F at Midway, which is just 4F above the lowest noon local time dewpoint of record on the 6th of June, dating back to 1948. The monthly record low dewpoint in that time period is 17F, from June 10, 1972:

That was the initial issue with weather forecasting at which point a smart forecaster changed the wording from Rain today to Chance of Rain today. Viola, everyone feels good about themselves all the time. I will go out on a limb and say there is a chance you see the sun later today however there is also a chance you do not.

Head to Albany and wait for the line. Then pick north or south and get run over.

What do you mean? Anyone who DIDN'T is the weirdo

1. My perception that Raindance’s forecast last winter was “sort of deemphasized” can best be illustrated by the lack of replies in his winter forecast thread: There was only a pretty small % of active members posting (including my post) during the subsequent 2 weeks (through Oct 25) followed by not even a single post in Nov-Feb! Rightly or wrongly, that gave me the impression that there was a deemphasis of sorts. If he had had a cold E US forecast, I bet there would have been many more posts there than the 17 replies. I mentioned: “bias resulting from desires for a cold winter. I’m also vulnerable due to the same desire.” When I said this, I wasn’t talking about member forecasts. I was talking about member desires and was thinking that that lead to limited activity in Raindance’s thread. 2. I know you and others (including myself) have a lot of respect for Raindance’s forecast related contributions, especially because of the enormous amount of detail he backs his forecasts up with and how well he has done in recent years. I also realize you and others have his forecasts as “must reads”. I’m not debating that. You’ve been quite vocal about it. 3. Also, I agree with you about the lack of cold/snowy member forecasts. Yes, the most bullish forecasts/hopes were mainly for NN temps/snow with mild/lack of snow in Dec being balanced out via a transition to cold/snowy by Feb. But even these were significantly colder and snowier than Raindance’s. There was a lot of excitement about Feb potential (me included) vs Raindance not showing that. The Euro and other models were fostering this as many runs had beautiful H5 maps in Jan/Feb! They busted horribly! 4. @snowman19@George001, and I think @Stormchaserchuck1were also mild pretty much from the start. Kudos to them. Snowman19 got numerous weenies, especially when he posted Paul Roundy tweets. George also got some. But alas, they were pretty much right after all! 5. I have an enormous amount of respect for your forecast related contributions! I put Raindance, Griteater (though I don’t know if he did a formal forecast last winter), and yourself at the top as far as member preparation/time put into them and details shown to back them up.

small one near S bound brook/River road area

toasty OP GFS run in the extended

There’s a lot of cool .edu weather sites out there, I’m going to try to find them all!