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@BornAgain13HR 36 literally might have us giggle as to how hard the sleet will be coming down outside. The band verbatim the NAM has roll thru is like a damn summer time thunderstorm.

NAM with a much better thump, though. Like @Buddy1987 stated, it's probably due to the QPF increase. (3/10)

This reminds me. Lotta babies are going to be born in October this year.

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ For those who want the link

They're already off on Thursday and Friday. No way they have school Monday. Half of the elementary schools have early release on Wednesday. It's going to be cold AF and people won't shovel their sidewalks.

Hard for me to draw any conclusions either. Heights look higher in front but not sure if it’s just speeding up the southern vort a little bit. Would like that vort to be a little less amped though like 12z.

100%.

Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th.

If next weekend materializes, I am heading back west. Enjoy!

For me it’s a bit of PD2 and 2010. Both had strong WAA snowfall.

All that really matters anymore is where the primary transfers to the coast. The further North that happens, the more warm air will be pumped in but also the more precip there will be. It’s a double edged sword. The rest is just noise.

The Arctic front means business. Wind is howling!

I know it's a ways off but holy crap the GFS run for the beginning of Feb, that's showing a true coastal closed, phased deep low... but it'll be gone by tomorrow. There has been good sigs around the 29th-3rd timeframe on all the guidance at some point, have to see what this one does first I guess.

you sure?

Ripping snow across the region at 09z... but sleet line is moving rapidly northward. EZF is pinging soon on 00z NAM

I think I can speak for the upstate SC folks… we are truly dreading this storm. Anyone ‘rooting’ for ice/fz rain hasn’t been through what’s about to come to us. Please check on your neighbors and the elderly. This is serious ‘shit’ that we are getting ready to experience. I pray that everyone stays safe & warm…

Alexandria, I think it’ll be fun with the snow/sleet and freezing rain (to end). If McHenry was getting 2-3’, I would have chased.

it'll be showing rain by tomorrow! Nam sucks

Can't wait to see the first flakes and see how it all pans out. I'll be stoked to see anything over a foot.

4.7 / -2 Deep Creek 25 / 6 Leesburg wind never fails on that mountain. Enjoy

Would that not keep precipitation liquid east of the low? I don't ever remember seeing frozen anything east of a surface low?

Looks like NAM finally catching onto the idea of a heavy qpf event. Some heavy returns over the TN Valley now HR 30.

Models being models, generally. Most of us are trying to overlay our preferred solutions on top of inferential extrapolations by imperfect 3-D computerized calculations with known biases. General consensus? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ In other news, the drinking has begun.

To a degree, yeah they’re they’re looking at short range models. You should find that Lincoln watch it. It’s a really good. edit don’t drink and post at the same time