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  2. forkyfork
    remember in april when you hive members were trying to will this event under +2 because you knew it would be really bad for cold and snow this winter? now it's +3 and you're willing some kind of magic block that will defeat the pacific vortex
  3. snowman19
    In the last 50+ years, the super El Niño that most closely resembles this one in development/evolution, forcing and orientation (even though this one is much stronger and more east-based) is 1997, hands down
  4. eyewall
    Thank you all. It does not look like I am going to find the time to get there but I am glad I took the trip I did for the shots above.
  5. eyewall
    Starting to see the colors pop around here:
  6. SJonesWX
    thank you for this thorough scientific analysis.
  7. jconsor
    Very nice find, Larry! While the seasonal model support for a strong -AO is mostly lacking, the sub-seasonal support is growing. There is increasing support for a -AO in the last two-thirds of Nov. EPS and GEFS long range weather regime charts show an increasing proportion with Greenland High (GH) or Alaskan ridge (AR) vs. prior forecasts. This is also reflected in individual member AO forecast charts from the long range EPS and GEFS. Taking El Ninos of any strength, the four with a Nov AO below -1.0 saw that -AO persist overall through the winter and most of these were memorable winters with at least one KU event: 1957-58: -0.9 1965-66: -1.5 1968-69: -2.3 2002-03: -0.6
  8. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  9. RickinBaltimore
    Rush was fantastic last night! Anika definitely deserves all her flowers for her drum work and keeping Neil Peart's spirit (of radio) alive.
  10. BlizzardWx
    What a difference a year makes.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    I would happily write off December 2026 if I knew it would transition into a solid January and February. Snow with no sun angle concerns is the best snow. March snow is fine, but it's like the last drink at a bar while everyone's cleaning up around you and the bar tender is staring you down.
  12. GaWx
    More from Webb about the SSW: The wave pattern that forces stratospheric warming events varies from case to case. Displacement events (wave 1) require an Aleutian low and a Scandinavian-Kara Sea block, but splits of the polar vortex (wave 2) do not necessarily. This particular stratospheric warming event actually starts out as a split type (wave 2), and then morphs into a wave 1/displacement type event as the Aleutian low becomes established later. The tropospheric trigger for this event is clearly traceable to the Eastern Pacific w/ divergent wind anomalies from active convection propagating poleward into N America and then eastward into the North Atlantic jet stream, eventually forcing the Kara Sea/Scandinavian block that sets this entire stratospheric warming event into motion. Also, note that early in the model forecasts, wave 2 amplitude dominates the -NAM/AO changes, wave 1 comes later and is largely confined to the mid-upper stratosphere initially at least.
  13. IronTy
    Lock it in, 75" winter up on deck.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    09-10 was Canada's warmest Winter on record
  15. GaWx
    -1952-3 only barely missed a 2nd one in Jan with it getting down to +1 fwiw. -I had thought a +QBO reduced the chance for a mid to late winter major SSW during +1.3+ El Niño. However, upon further review, that may not be true: Here are the +1.3+ peaking El Niño events with a +QBO and whether or not they had a Jan 15th+ major SSW: 1957-8: yes 1982-3: no 1987-8: yes 1994-5: yes 2015-6: yes So, that’s 4 of 5 (80%) +QBO +1.3+ Nino with a Jan 15th+ SSW ———————— What about -QBO Nino winters? 1965-6: yes 1986-7: yes 1991-2: no 2009-10: yes 2023-4: yes So, that’s 4 of 5 (80%) -QBO +1.3+ Nino with a Jan 15th+ SSW. So, it’s a statistical tie for Jan 15th+ SSWs chances during +1.3+ El Niño.
  16. BlizzardWx
    What's the data? I might be able to help. I agree here that this is different than much of the last decade plagued by split forcing. I don't know that in the end it will mean any more snow or cold...but it is different and we shouldn't assume the last 12 years will necessarily hold this year.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Kind of a nice cloudy day today. Seems like it's been a while 2017-on has been above average precip July/Aug then below Sept/Oct
  18. stadiumwave
    I shared his X post & that was it. Glad you & Snowman19 assume you know why, lol. I cannot imagine just scanning every post to see if maybe someone is implying something about a cold winter. You people are sick.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    CommodityWx has posted some incorrect stuff, surprising. The greatest effects from an early Nov Stratosphere warming are probable -AO effects 35-45 days later.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Everyone knows that's how you build up to a great pattern in 2028. You just gotta punt this winter first.
  21. kdxken
    It was hard to find a tee time. Everybody's going out Friday.
  22. Maggie Valley Steve
    Looks like rain will hold off this weekend. Next chance would be the middle of next week. The Leaves are putting on a show around the Valley. Fantastic colors in spite of many speculations no vibrant color this year.
  23. Today
  24. John1122
    If the weeklies are to be believed, we likely see snow by the first or second week of December. Huge if of course.
  25. CoastalWx
    That is my point. Disruption or not many of them already have early snow events because of their climatology.
  26. Typhoon Tip
    hmm 8" have become handed out like the free candy in the counter bowl at a car dealership in recent decades... It's come to almost expect for every snow event - some familiarization and entitlement bias has probably set in, too. Repeated exposure and novelty habituation naturally lowers the amazement of it and the meh'ing soon kicks in. You're contrast/analogy doesn't really hold up well, then. Not when EF5s are still hugely more rare by comparison.
  27. Typhoon Tip
    This is a nice example for the adage, "correlation does not mean causation"
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