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Final part Haha, I spent way too long on this to not put forth my pet theory regarding the 1960s. The absolute insane return periods for "luck" and just plain actual snow and it's correlation to some events has not been studied super well. I guess this is the sacrifice needed for us to get the winters we pray for. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Which this was a lot closer and not the 84hr NAM, was about to be a nice hit!

Part 2 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Euro can be wrong also

Agree. Euro is most likely wrong here. Here is the Nam. Saturday and then Sunday.

I have a super long post that will take a few separate post. The snowfall in Harrisburg is driven by a combination of global atmospheric patterns and what we call "Timing Luck"—the localized, chaotic meeting of moisture and cold air that large-scale indices like the NAO and PNA cannot predict. Our analysis identifies "Luck" as the residual snowfall surplus or deficit left over after accounting for these global drivers. While atmospheric patterns explain about 6–9% of the variability, the rest comes down to whether individual storms happen to "phase" correctly over our region. The 1960s (1961–1970) stand out as a once-in-a-millennium statistical outlier where Harrisburg received a massive +110-inch "luck" surplus, effectively gaining nearly one-third of its total snowfall through perfect timing rather than just favorable global setups. In contrast, the current period from 2021 to 2025 has been characterized by a deep "luck deficit," rivaling the extreme snow droughts of the 1950s. Even when atmospheric indices are neutral or slightly favorable, we are currently underperforming our "expected" snowfall by over 5 inches per year. Our modeling shows that while the 1960s were a ~1,700-year fluke of extreme overperformance, the current deficit represents a significant run of "bad luck" where storm tracks have consistently avoided the Susquehanna Valley. For those interested in the deep-dive statistics, including the return periods for our luckiest years (1961, 1996) and unluckiest years (1980, 1998, 2023), please see the attached images for the full distribution and decade-by-decade breakdown. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

One or two more NW shifts would be nice. Webb keeps saying the Euro is out to lunch being so suppressed with really nothing in the Atlantic to keep it suppressed.

00Z AARP also looked like it would be an absolute nuke past 84. the 00z run, 6z is still coming out

Just saw that! 12z should be interesting!! .

A lot of folks were about to get NAM'D at 6z.

6z NAM looked like it would of been wild if it went past hr84.. deep south gets a snowstorm from it and about to move on up

Phew.

NAM is about to be an absolute behemoth.

0z EPS is actually real cold Jan 26-29

Big tick NW on GEFS. I don't see anything that would really keep this super suppressed. GFS is not backing down yet.

January? More like swampuary. Lfg!!

SREF at 03z is nw and gives most of the area from the western Plateau eastward .10 or more precip from 63-87.

Yes, but I think we’d all take a warning level event at the very start of this return to a wintry pattern.

1993 wasnt that bad for E areas. 8.8 from weymouth COOP at the time. obv west was best, but it was a good front ender for nearly everyone except for the Cape

Great runs by the 0z models. From 22nd through 26th looks loaded with potential. And that is after I think we get a few good surprises next few days.

looks like a decent-moderate snower for ENE, and maybe further west. 5-10"er? overall, the ceiling seems low because of the fast flow

Best eps spike of the year

Dude has changed dramatically in the past year or so. Idk if the station or something has pressured him to drive engagement or what, but it’s become incessant with the hype posts. Still a good Met but this has made me distrust him some.

Nice pattern. Not real strong anomalies, but things are where you want them for cold/snowstorms right in the middle of Winter.