All Activity

That would make more sense.

Latest CFS for mid/late winter, Fwiw. Very Nino, and has a general look that could produce a big snowstorm or two even if the overall winter is on the mild side.

21Z RAP box soundings are nuts. 730 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH.

The only thing is, this isn't a cool June. June is running +4.0 at ORD through the 14th.

I assumed multi level marketing

Mid 980's is getting into Cat 2 Hurricane territory lol. This seems to be a classic Great Lakes/Ohio Valley kinematic setup that we would normally see in some of the Feb/early March or Nov. outbreaks we've had in the past as currently modeled. See how the models respond tomorrow before I get too excited. That upper level jet timing and strength as modeled right now certainly has me intrigued anyway.

Link to Invest 90L thread:

What a spectacular day today with a high of 73 today.

Six days until the Summer Solstice. Shorter days/lower sun after that as we move towards Fall/winter. Love the thought of that, plus NFL training camp is about a month away.

I’m a broken record from the above posts but you can’t script it any better.

There probably aren’t many here that remember it, but your post reminded me of the most dangerous water toy ever made, the Water Wiggle. I’m pretty sure that thing maimed a few kids.

Nice idyllic cumulus clouds @ 22z

These days make the 95-100F with 70 dew point days tolerable

I had to Google MLM and got this… and I’m thinking, that’s probably not what he’s talking about . “In modern slang, MLM almost universally stands for "Men Loving Men."”

I may have already subscribed and ordered a shirt. Haven't messed around with the app much yet but liking it so far.

New NAM brings the action up to the 88. area.

Cooler weather has now returned to the region. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow through Wednesday. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week. No heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -12.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.321 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1 (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I had a garden hose go wild on me and got me good. Actually felt cold with the wet-bulb + wind! Good stuff.

80 mph straight line winds determined by LWX survey last night near Libertytown (Frederick Co.) https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/166-2026/PNSLWX/187943434c0858f4f13424bc30b0894e

0.00" yesterday. Major fail given the forecast. About a half inch for the month so far, on top of half/less than half of normal rainfall the last 3 months. Drought status may be upped here this week. Was already pretty close to Extreme. I'll keep running the sprinklers for the plants. Grass is toast, clover hanging in there.

We've been talking about a window for tropical development for weeks, and now we have our first invest of the season. Regardless of development, heavy rain will continue across much of the south. Separating out a thread so we can continue the discussion here. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

I only had .24”. It skirted NW with the heavy precip

There were some pretty nice lenticulars over Yancey and Mitchell this morning...and what a perfect weather day it's been! 61 today. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Thanks! STP noted this morning they’d be looking into damage reports in York/Lancaster where that cell traveled. Friend is ok!