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2m is meh is my point

I think it’s because the models are showing ridiculous high outcomes. It might end up being a super, who knows but it’s most likely not going to end up as strong as some of the ridiculous output of some of these models. I’m not saying this is the case with any of the twitter mets that snowman is posting but a lot of them don’t follow this stuff/care as much as we do and just check the models every so often without actually diving into it like many posters here do.

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface.

I saw a few years ago there were a couple kayakers who rode this one on a day like this. Not as much flow, but damn close.

Hey Mitch, It’s probably to get extra clicks and likes. And then some are typically a bit over the top normally.

Hey Mitch, It’s probably to get extra clicks and likes.

time of year wont matter much if it happens at night. if we get a good burst we coat

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone.

Well yeah, storm chasing is pretty bad in Oklahoma a lot of years recently. I've even seen a few Youtube thumbnails saying the state government is thinking of making storm chasing illegal in Oklahoma.

I took an extra day off today to recover from our trip and I was reading reports of graupel and even snow down in the DMV. Shortly thereafter a little shower rolled through here. It couldn't have lasted 2 minutes but it came down heavy for about a minute.

Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures. Lows will fall into the middle or upper 30s in New York City. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. Highs will reach the middle 50s. Wednesday will be somewhat milder. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -0.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

40s and 50s with rain for the weekend

Yeah a coating at best at the higher els. Toss the 10:1 with meh 2m temps this time of year

Given marginal temperatures aloft, 925-850mb, between -2C to +2C, cannot rule out a few of the showers containing wet snow. No impacts expected due to the recent warmth. However, a coating isn`t out of the question for northern Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills.

the GFS and a couple other models are trying to whiten things up a bit tomorrow night

some trees don't even have buds yet hopefully we stay cool until atleast the middle of May now

Still a lot of ash, beech, and elm here. I dug up an elm out of my tiger lilies by the corner of the house a couple of weeks ago. I have a couple of ash by the house that have to come out too. The older trees have taken a bit of a hit…especially south of here.

I have noticed a few large Green Ash that seem to be hanging on and still look healthy in my area. I talked with a Forestry Professor from Yale who said they are finding some that they call lingering ash. Some kind of genetic resiatance. Some good articles out there if you google more on it. Lingering Ash (EAB Resistance): In North America, a small percentage of ash trees have survived EAB infestations. These "lingering ash" suggest a genetic basis for resisting the beetle, allowing for efforts to breed a new generation of resistant trees.

That’s awesome. No such thing happened here.

Timing stinks yet again. Thursday-Fri look awesome but not the weekend

cold but beautiful evening. getting in a 5+ mile jebber

May 05 vibes on that 18z Ai gfs

Will be nice Thursday with low 70’s SNE NNE looks chilly and wet much of next 10-20

Going to record a T of snowfall today as a heavy graupel shower rolled through earlier.

The EC-AIFS is normal to AN after Wednesday in NNE. Fits MJO phase state. Don’t sell. SNE and mid Atlantic depression gonna drown out the decent weather vibes up here though.