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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
tamarack replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Way ahead of me - only the left knee last June (may your 2nd knee be as easy as my 1st) and neck fusion in 2011. Other surgeries - prostate, and ablation for A-fib - didn't require leaving any hardware. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Cut out all processed sugar as much as retentively possible. Go Allulose and Stevia extract ( organic sources), about 96/4 ... you won't know the difference and it has zero glycemic index. Sugar beyond the biological evolutionary signal, is connected to 90% of all inflammatory responses in physiology, and just about all systemic problems traditionally associated to 'just aging' are in fact connected to difference degrees of inflammatory response. Gout and other forms of arthritic flares, to hypertension to pre Diabetes and eventually arteriosclerosis and cancers ... all can be traced back to inflammation. You'll lose weight. Your cholesterol will plummet ( particularly the tri-glics and ultra LDLs). You'll notice a reduction in frequency and intensity of maintenance area of the body. -
Some examples:
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The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
JenkinsJinkies replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just a 2 inch event across the board will be enough to not add to any of them this year. -
2 years ago today. The other big storm that season. A lot of the areas that jackpotted here missed out on the Feb 13th, 2024 snowstorm. A pretty insane gradient S to N with coastal SECT getting less than 1" to upwards of 17" in N Granby. Just got done re-doing this entire storm from scratch for accuracy and to include Lower Northeast map w/ climo sites. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-6-7-2024 Contours Only
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https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/12-Jan-96.html
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We had 2" here before the rain, but IIRC DC had all snow and another 8". Just unlucky at the end of a very good week.
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The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
North Balti Zen replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI at 2" indeed not gonna add to this list of shame but not a robust start. DCA at 1.5" is almost clear of a top 5 dead-ratter. IAC at 2.1" though...should be safe obviously but still work to do. -
The original KU list was a subjective list of major northeast storms that Kocin and Ucelliini found impactful and meteorologically interesting and subsequently published and then updated an excellent book on their research. Taking it to the next level they worked to quantity the list by devising a calculation to attempt an estimate of how many people were impacted and how severely they were impacted. This became NESIS which I understand is now described as a "regional index", whatever that means as it seems to cover 2/3 of the country. Here are some things that I think should be considered when using "K-U" events to make broader climate associations in the northeast: 1. There is no "KU track". Clippers that largely do not achieve warning level snows in our region can get elevated to KU status if a cold wind in their wake manages to bury the Chicago area (as well as western and central NY, etc.) in lake affect, adding millions of people to the calculation. Likewise, a storm that drops a few inches across the deep south and manages to get some routine snows up towards the northeast can get the designation. Benchmark tracks feature in most of the biggest snowfalls in our area, but they are not common to all KU events. 2. Pretty much every significant snowfall (and some fairly insignificant ones) this century gets a NESIS rating (i.e., is a "KU"). Nearly every year has a KU; between the 1999-2000 and 2022-23 winter seasons there were only 4 winters out of 24 without a KU (2001-2, 2007-8, 2011-12, and 2019-20). The odds of a snowy winter having a KU are high because the odds of any winter having a KU are high. Prior to this century, storms were not evaluated in the same way. 3. Many of the NESIS cases had limited impacts on the northeast, others had major impacts limited to the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest to Maine, but little impact south of there. Still others were mostly notable from the gulf coast through the mid-Atlantic. In short, they are all different, with different evolutions, effect different areas, have variations in the long wave patterns, and individual KUs often represent an aggregation of the effects of multiple shortwaves with varying reflections at the surface. The breadth of these events is not the same as what Kocin and Ucellini originally focused on. 4. I looked at 30 years of snowfall data from my own site since I had easy access and I trust the data. 8 of those years had snowfall of between 25 and 72 inches exclusive of snow that fell during KU events. The list would be even longer if we assume that there would have been some snowfall even if the KU events not occurred (i.e., there may still have been smaller or less widespread snowfalls during the same time periods). In other words, "zeroing out" KU totals from the record is probably not realistic. Of course there is no way to quantify what that might have been.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
DavisStraight replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I was just in Dayton, thought they were in the band, but they only had an inch. They had 4-5 on the ground though. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
SouthCoastMA replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I haven't graduated to bionic man yet but 2nd hernia surgery coming up in February, plus have had shoulder impingement on right side for about 8 months. Getting old is fun! -
Waldbaums roof collapse caused by the wet snow
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
DavisStraight replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I'm not far behind, left hip replaced, 12-inch rod in my back, they want to schedule me for a left shoulder replacement, and my right hip has maybe a year left. I like the airports with the phone booth thing; they let me pass right through. -
Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion
CheeselandSkies replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Oh, *bleep*. Hard pass on that look for me. -
Wonderful... I may need one soon
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but further north like in new england it was snow; i think there was a roof collapse but i may be getting it confused with 2003, an almost as impressive storm, though in retrospect it was not as big. it was the second time in my life to see such a storm, bigger than anything in the 70s or 80s....and the storms we would go on to see....i'm getting too old to deal with megastorms anymore, but wouldn't mind a return to a 2014 or even 2021 scenario....
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Off topic, but interested in buying a property in Thornton, NH. Anyone have any input on that area as far as how they feel about it and it’s proximity to the Whites and also snowfall and weather in general?
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This winter sucks
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Lame cop out. Who here has "denied" climate change is happening? Some of you think that if people aren't freaking out and claiming the world is ending due to climate change, they're deniers. It's not that binary, that's not reality. "Oh no, someone pointed out that it's not record heat everywhere, all the time - they are a clearly a DENIER! Burn them at the stake."
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
If you do really wan to push the "La Nina is dead" narrative, Feb 2013 maybe a higher end analog that is achievable.....I almost included it in my February list. -
2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Several thoughts as we move deeper into January. La Niña is clearly waning. Region 3.4 has seen some recent warming. But La Niña is still having an influence. In a visible sign that there remains ocean-atmosphere coupling, the AAM is negative and forecast to remain negative for at least the next 7-10 days. As the La Niña wanes, its influence will also fluctuate. Fading weak La Niña events have mixed outcomes for February. This mixture of outcomes suggests that atmospheric patterns begin to carry greater weight as ENSO forcing weakens. By the end of the week, it will become clearer whether the PNA will move toward a regime change or a highly unusual brief PNA+ period followed by a resumption of a mainly negative PNA. By that time, the teleconnection guidance will be in its high-skill forecasting range. The base case remains a turn toward colder but not necessarily severely cold weather during the second half of January. The southern tier may still see only temporary intrusions of cold air. Snowfall prospects for the East Coast will depend heavily on the evolution of the PNA. In any case, at least through mid-month, significant snowfalls are unlikely for the East, as well as parts of the Great Lakes Region. -
The problem is that the complainers (Cassandras) usually end up being right. At least in recent years.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
mahk_webstah replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Weather underground seems to be bumping the snow toes up a bit for tonight, but that might just be off of one model run or something -
I didn’t dig deeper into it. It just looked like a good set up. Meh. Whatevs. It will snow again one day…I think.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
One can only hope. That was off the charts here. But we had a great look last Feb, and it shit the bed. Hoping this one can stay the course, and then deliver something? Too many decent looks with very little to show of late. But it’s nice to see.
