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Agree with the bolded 100% I guess when the snow prospects go down the toilet, the only game in town is to watch the cats fight. Aldo 04 is an instigator

The one consistent thing this last 6 weeks is models have largely been able to lock into the theme at around 168 hours at least so I'd think by the 6th we really want to see consistent ideas of the trof kicking eastward and the ridge building out west if we are going to see the 12th or 13th being the start of something manageable, if we are not seeing that by then I think we can kick this more out to the 16th or 17th

I assume he's 12 years old.

I think more a general rule that applies is if January is way above normal there are almost no cases of the winter being snowy. That is really the only rule I think that applies. I just do not know though how many below normal Decembers with above normal snow saw torch Januarys though. Off memory I don't recall any, maybe 2005-06? 1989 obviously was crazy cold but had no snow albeit we had 1 very close call where like POU/BDL/BDR saw 5-10 inches so these things are somewhat relative as close calls either way could have resulted in years fitting/not fitting into analogs.

12z Canadian ends on day 10 with widespread cold.

The 12z Canadian has the trough in the east again by the 11th.

12z Canadian ends on day 10 with widespread cold.

The 12z Canadian has the trough in the east again by the 11th with a light snow chance this run.

My thought was we’d be in the midst of the thaw at that point, and perhaps whatever it is that’s coming after might be better modeled. Maybe it would take even longer than that.

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter. we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s corn flakes, but at least be accurate. Right now you just look foolish to every poster. Either stop making things up or move these posts to banter.

Maybe the first 10 days or so are boring with a brief warm up for around 5 days.

We're in a truly desperate state in the Mid Atlantic sub forum. It's been a decade since there has been a region wide warning level snowfall, and it's looking rather grim for snowfall chances down our way once again this winter. It's entirely possible that we won't even manage a double digit seasonal snowfall total at any of our climate sites (BWI, DCA, IAD) again this year. I wouldn't read too much into it up in your neck of the woods. You can still very easily score and have had several events this far.

26 winters would like to reclaim their snowstorms.

Ralph judging by everyone jumping off a cliff in the MA forum, guessing nothing doing on the GFES and EPS? I don't read them very well.

Just have to wait this period out. Nothing of interest is going to show for several days or more. I wouldn't mind a few days in the 40s or 50s with something to clean the salty streets

Overnight Euro didn't look bad. Hopefully we get through this warm-up and then the pattern will be a bit more favorable. Although I've seen that the real time frame to look at is the end of January through the first of February.

Very boring weather in thr first 3 weeks of January it looks like to me. We need a wind break for sure, though. 50s seem very possible next week to kick off the Farm Show.

we don't know what we don't know. or do we? we just don't know

Well the NW territories have had temps anywhere from negative 30 to near negative 60 degrees recently. And im sorry but im not hedging bets on long range this season. Just like when wncsnow said that the 10th through the 20th would verify cold. I said I don't trust the models that far out this season. Now look at everything.

The 12Z GFS seems disjointed, maybe it is just my untrained eye

Loving that the snowpack has glacialized. happy new year!

Well the 12Z Goofus gets rid of the ridge at least. Interested to see what the Euro shows after next week.

This is a very confusing hobby, that’s all I know.

Lazy flakes under partly sunny the last hour

Meh, DOGE nuked their accuracy.