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-SN in Cambridge/Boston out the window (office in Kendall Sq).

someone gave JB access to the google model making feature

Sunny here in Weaverville.

Agree

How good are HRRR surface temps? It barely has DC getting above 10 tomorrow.

Then we have our 5 day thaw.. Then

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/2019772590475129058?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I doubt it with the PNA going negative. The STJ should wake up.

Surprised to see some areas of freezing drizzle on my way into work today.

Unlike yesterday, that wasn't really directed at anyone, just a general statement. I was actually replying to my own post lol.

12z models look good. Congrats cstl Essex county I think.

Yeah this looks like more of a norlun event than a widespread plowable snow. I’m not expecting much from this, someone could end up with a surprise but I would think it’s a small area.

That's what's great about this forum. When we're in boring stretches, this helps entertain. Only thing missing is a 8+ event.

Also seeing that latest guidance keeps areas like binghamton, Albany and Syracuse NY sub zero all day Saturday… Good luck infrastructure….

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

Debated if this is banter or obs, but it's wild to me that about 2 weeks after the storm you can still look at the Maryland Highway traffic cameras and see snow on the ground for most of the state. That does not happen very often here.

1-3” ?? Looks like a nice high end advisory as of now like Scoots said

He also pointed out how off the forecast was for the MJO. It’s definitely going in the wrong direction so here is to hoping if is off about that.

mm hm. Sure is. The flow is in torpedo mode. So a 'few inches' whenever/wherever it occurs might be considered more of an achievement - relative to faster flow limitations. The western ridge refuses to gain latitudinal arc in the ongoing verification, and that's been/is keeping a modestly compressed, slightly faster than normal field, thus preferentially progressive. Those former two aspects are constructively interfering such that S/Ws move from circa IA clear NE of Nova Scotia in 36 hours.. What is that, 1 and 1/2 times faster than climate trajectories? I bet you we could create like an index finger rule, similar to the 1kt = 1mb, only for S/W vs output. 1::1 like that... for every 10% a S/W is moving faster than climo, that's 10% reduction in productivity. -10%, and it adds because that means the system slowed down and donut stuffed a region like Homer Simpson in hell ... who of course encounters Ned Flanders as the devil...

Our coldest weather of the year is on the way over this weekend. Snow showers should begin from west to east across the area this evening with occasional snow showers and maybe a snow squall tomorrow morning. The high tomorrow will be overnight tonight but quickly fall into the single digits above zero during the day tomorrow with winds gusting as high as 50mph. The extreme cold warning goes into effect at 3pm tomorrow. Snow amounts will be light with between a coating and an inch at most. We should finally warm up to near freezing by Tuesday with a chance for some freezing rain or rain by Wednesday with temperatures just above freezing in most spots.

AI EPS still likes the 15-17th period.. if you are referring to the 11-12th, that's another northern stream clipper that changes every 6 hours... it's going to change every 6 hours..

Our coldest weather of the year is on the way over this weekend. Snow showers should begin from west to east across the area this evening with occasional snow showers and maybe a snow squall tomorrow morning. The high tomorrow will be overnight tonight but quickly fall into the single digits above zero during the day tomorrow with winds gusting as high as 50mph. The extreme cold warning goes into effect at 3pm tomorrow. Snow amounts will be light with between a coating and an inch at most. We should finally warm up to near freezing by Tuesday with a chance for some freezing rain or rain by Wednesday with temperatures just above freezing in most spots.

Looks like 1-3" right now , could be all rain or a whiff as well..

Sunday morning looks coldest in NYC metro most have seen in their lives… Once in 50 year level potential with this. 0F in CPK is conservative. The bias is to take UHI and +5 vs guidance but the in situ cold and winds will mitigate those affects. Very relieved personally that the axis of cold is about 250 miles west of here. Binghamton NY flirting with -20F before wind chill is holy shit level cold for our latitude.

This post made me look closely out the window here in Hagerstown. I've seen a few mangled flakes, but this air is super dry this morning so it looks like mostly virga. Maybe those slightly better returns out west of me are doing a little better?