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1983 followed a very common El Niño Modoki Index trajectory in that it began extremely east-based, then began to decay westward post-peak. I still expect this one to do that to an extent, but I must admit I no longer expect it to do so to the extent of 1983. I am in the process of devising things and I expect to remain more east-based than I did....large impact on the forecast? Nope.

It's every bit of this here at the beach.

I get what you’re looking for, it’s just really difficult to get a perfect set up.

Every year is different though. It takes one

I live in a grove of 100’ White Pines so wind only excites me when I’m at the coast. Although, I will say, White Pine are quite resilient with high winds outside of anomalous severe events. Either way, I just don’t see this being super impressive inland unless everything goes absolutely right for widespread damaging coastal. 9 out of 10 times it’s disappointment if you’re looking for big excitement in these storms. Well see what models show 24 hours from now when the sampling is better…

Radar estimates probably way over done in southern Wake. I might have got 0.30...but it's showing 1 to 1.5...it has really cooled down though. Fall is here!

Looks wet on both models Saturday and Sunday, though not as bad as southern New England. Here's Saturday morning through early Monday afternoon: GFS Euro The exact specifics aren't really worth locking onto, just that the "trend" has been toward a closer approach of the storm and rainier weekend as a result for your purposes.

The last mega El-Nino was rain. I expect the same 97-98.

Rain is just so mundane and boring . The region needs a big un’

Looked all over the Mid-Atlantic forum, plus the Marketplace forum on the main AMX home page. This appears to be the most recent thread about WX stations. Looking to replace my Davis Vantage Vue. It's performed "ok" for 10+ years now. I'm on the 3rd solar array, the rain gauge has a tendency to collect debris and malfunction, and the overall appearance is dated, especially the display. Looked at the Ambient line of stations online. Considering the WS=2000, 4000 (is the ultrasonic good? more reliable?) or maybe even the 5000 (not sure it's worth the $$$). Saw the Ambient line offers wifi with connectivity to AWN (Ambient Weather Network) and ability to receive data on a smartphone via an app. Is a subscription required to remote the data to a smart phone? Not really interested in having to manage another subscription - have so many already. Welcome input from anyone who cares to share. R

Southern storm tracks will increase probably this winter...if you are in the foothills and mountains especially...it could get fun. I bet we score once east too. Fingers crossed!

I agree with you. I started off conservatively with this El Niño, until I could see the white of history's eyes, which I am viewing. I update-in-progress has it 2.9 to 3.1. The Euro is at like 3.5, which I am confident is wrong because that is essentially as high as the ONI, which isn't happening. Should maintain like a .4 deficit in relation to the ONI...like 2015.

the valley is always a tough spot.. so glad I left it

A Nor'easter on September 22, So much for hurricane season. Thank you el-Nino.

December forcing looks like 1997 to me, though it will be warmer this year due to the solar and stratosphere...January looks like 1983. The days of always being able to discern the placement of convective forcing by simply viewing where the max SST anomalies are within ENSO are gone...believe me, I blew up my outlook doing it in 2023.

Drop in! Share your best memories!

I think inland it’s going to be more impressive at elevations above 600’ if you are looking for any damage. The duration of the event, with regards to wind, may create some minor problems in the valley, but overall nothing impressive. Hydro issues inland are still to be determined.

This one's going hurt me

Hit the cask before tide chasing

Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to search for that . It worked perfectly

Fwiw

There’s a fair amount of folks here who have no idea what the potential is with this. Vort95 nailed it . Glad we recognized and jumped on board early and often.

Tomorrow and part of Thursday will be variably cloudy. A few locations could see a shower tomorrow, but dry weather should be predominant. Highs should reach the lower and middle 60s. Some periods of rain and showers are possible late Friday into the weekend. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter amounts of precipitation. Uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -9.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.201 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

December had a decent snow storm from VA to north of PHL ( idk how far) with 6"+ from VA to near PHL.