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GFS suite for the past couple of days may be locking onto the New England 5H trof too much... EPS modeling insists northward moving - deepening sfc low up against a strong surface high Quebec area. The phase diagrams for the EC glom onto a weakness off the Carolinas tomorrow and make its briefly warm core before asymmetric warm core and eventually degrading cold core system. This has been ongoing modeling for several days. So it seems to me WPC took a compromise of yesterday's modeling. Nothing yet from NHC that I can find regarding a possible subtropical storm evolution so they are seeing guidance that mutes or nullify that possibility-rely on their guidance. This will probably be my last for this on the forum. It's several days of EPS vs GEFS through the 06z/23 cycle (inclusive of AI EPS). Believe what you wish- me, Im preparing my ball club for a rainout Fri night-Sun night in nw NJ and believe a decent G wind 45 MPH-rain drenched leaves taking out power all the way back to the NJ coast this weekend-esp Sat. NWS offices are onto the coastal flooding. I dont like to be embarrassed by wrong planning (relying too heavy ily on the EPS indie of 5 days) so I recommend you continue with official NWS products as your primary guide.

I noticed that yesterday looking out the window. Had to take a second and more closer look...haven't seen clouds stream in from that direction in a while. They were hauling too

Coastal flooding is going to be the issue. Seems flooding is a theme for Irish Weekend. This is from Irish Weekend three years ago in North Wildwood. Guess I know what I'll be doing down there. lol

Haven't seen mid low clouds screaming in from the east like today since before the January blizzard

what are you talking about ???? the 0Z EPS trended east with heavier precip from its 12Z yesterday run !!

Eps is west on this run. Nothing is set in stone yet.

Looks like a borefest with rain and wind but nothing remarkable and stinks it's all on a weekend

2.44” so far for the week.

a few models

..it exists in someone's mind.....

Perhaps as many since the last Bruins Stanley Cup win???

Lawn is the frostiest I’ve seen it so far

So the AI’s are still bringing the more significant solutions?

2.42” since Sunday

It seems to get drunk much more now a days. It Must be hanging with their cousin more now, the Ukie.

.07 overnight with the next batch of rain looking like it slides east. Not done yet but storm total will probably be under .6 if I had to guess. Was really hoping for a nice soaking rain to go on a fun waterfall/river hike over the weekend. Might attempt some form of reanalysis to figure out what happened.

2.9 inches total, all with light to occasionally mod rain. Absolutely perfect! Now I'm looking forward to the luscious weather later this week into the weekend. Get ready to fire up those grills!

For an in my back yard take, we have our annual fall fest/kids bday party set for Saturday; but if it’s going to come, let’s get it cranking!

A nice soaking for many. I wonder if this means my water won’t be mixed with the Susquehanna River?

It’s as if the spring into summer pattern was influenced by the rapid reversal in the Arctic. Notice how we developed a strong blocking pattern over the Arctic following the record early SSW back in November. This pattern locked in through the record blizzard in late February. Then rapidly reversed in March and we continue to see a deep vortex near the North Pole that we have been discussing. It’s possible that’s why the +AAM didn’t translate to the mid-latitudes this summer. The usual developing super El Niño summer normally has a strong 500mb ridge near the North Pole over the summer.

Mins

ended the event with 2.36

2.14” since Sunday. That’s a win.

Low 50's around here this morning and still breezy.

Cmc never showed a hook into NJ like some model runs did.