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One thing that is different from Friday’s system is it’s significantly colder tonight in the Triad than it was this time Thursday night. PTI is already just above freezing, at 35.

hype is the absolute worst, tbh. silly but funny

Don’t think El Niño or La Niña matters really, hey we got the elusive SSWE and MJO phase 8 and we have zero threats on the horizon

I remember it having systems travel from the Pac NW down through the Plains into the Tn Valley along the Jet. Some would drop to the mid South and form a Miller A from a Miller B( transfer). Those were the Ones that would cut up the Coast from NC on up(Noreaster). Several low riding B and Clipper Systems as well. I was thinking awhile ago after reading Johns post and pondered that really all we need is this Pattern with the Trough dipped further South a 25-100 Miles. Then we'd be in the area getting the Snow that Area's that distance up are getting. So close. A stronger block would do it. Taller western Ridge would.

Can’t even gin up an A1 Grok animation after today’s runs

I don’t know if the super El Niño of 2015-16 had some sort of long-term effect on global circulation patterns or it’s a coincidence or it’s a combination of factors. But since then, if our winters haven’t been outright ratters, they certainly have been unremarkable. I’ll be 60 next year. I’ve seen some bad stretches of winter weather (late 80’s into the early 90’s comes to mind). But this past decade is setting a new bar for craptacular.

Currently down to 31.8. At least we won't be wasting as much moisture saturating this time, surface humidity already at 98%. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

not much in the way of OP run cinema

Got the notice that the schools were opening two hours late in C'ville and said, "What fresh hell is this?!?!" We've had storms sneak out of the south and overperform in the past...

didn't see this post before I posted but snowing here

wow that 18z gfs found every way to f nearly everyone out of any snow (very sigificant/impressive totals) for two weeks. I doubt it's real, but funny

I know, I’m just messing with you.

The talk about the trough being flat and displaced eastward got me to thinking - I know, dangerous! But that displaces western ridge(which leads to a very cold NE) will sometimes retrograde. If it does so slowly enough, we can hit the sweet spot at 500 OR if a system will cut one time. Any type of cutter right now is going to send very cold air south.

lfg!

Hey last thread I made turned out pretty well!

34 here. .

just looked out and lightly snowing.. fresh dusting

Totally got the shaft, man. I would drive home and be amazed. Now, Knoxville wasn't half bad. I remember driving around behind West Town Mall in my front-wheel-drive w/ everything covered in snow. Knox Co had to develop a new snow day, make-up plan after that winter. That extra 30 minutes kids go each day....started that year. But what TRI got was insane. I would see the snow around Jearoldstown Rd on my way up 81, and the parking lots were just stacked with snow piles. After the second storm, it was wild. We will see another winter like that. I can't wait to track it. 14-15 was good though. So, I kind of feel like I got my money back with that winter.

Yes, growing up these were so common. Herb Clarke, Dave Roberts, dare I show my age....Jim O Brien. "A disturbance will drop down into the Plains and spin up a bad guy off the Carolina Coast. Snow and mixing down the shore but we are looking at 2-4" right around the city with higher totals just to the North and West with bigger amounts up into the Lehigh Valley"

I'm sure you're right, I don't remember exactly. But it's also true that for Farmingdale, NY there's been at least one 54+ day - a super mild, holiday-spirit crushing day - in the week leading up to Christmas every year for the last 14 years, including last year, when it was 58. The average of the highest temperature reached in the week leading up to Christmas Day since 2011 is 58.64. The median is 58.5. Every year I hope it won't happen, but that hasn't seemed to help.

Cold Medina?

Tomorrow morning ITT

Saw something drop in the sky while walking the dog a few minutes ago. Figure it was an asteroid or meteorite or something cool… is there a website that actively tracks this sort of thing?

Hey, hey you're not allowed to do that here...they just reprimanded me, lol

This. I don't know why it changed--it's not just one storm but we're talking about at least 5-6 since 2018-19 where this has happened. Calling it bad luck I find unsatisfactory because of what my eyes see on radar during each storm I'm seeing the exact same wall at Central MD in the exact same spot for all of those events. How do you see that and not suspect it's something else? At least the Nina explanation makes a little more sense...but Jan 2019 was a Nino and it still happened, lol