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Maybe I wouldn’t say “the best” but it did very well. Top 3

Yup, I sent him the picture of the wolf with the lady’s head in his mouth…that did it.

As I highly suspected and noted weeks ago....with cold entrenched over the Great Lakes & northeast, we would undoubtedly hear more about warm anomalies elsewhere.

On the heels of yesterday's "record breaking" New Years Day snowfall, here are some more stats from the current winter season in Smithtown: The period of record for snowfall is 10/1/1995 through the present. The old daily January 1st record of 0.1" was the lowest daily record of any date between November 30 and March 25. Yesterday's 0.3" of snowfall shattered (tripled ) the old record set on New Years Day 2010. Here are all New Years Day snowfalls in Smithtown since 1996: 1997 - Trace 2006 - Trace 2010 - 0.1" 2014 - Trace 2020 - Trace 2021 - Trace 2026 - 0.3" Snowfall this season through 1/2 is 13.4". The December mean temperature was 33.0° and monthly snowfall was 13.0". Thus far we have had 11 days with at least a trace of snow, 7 days with measurable snowfall, and 3 days with at least 1 inch. Total precipitation for December was 4.33". Total precipitation for 2025 was 39.46" (8.34" below the 13-year average) Finally, the only other day in January with a daily snowfall record below 1" is January 13 (0.5" in 2000). We might have a shot at breaking that this year.

We need to film an Outdoor Boys winter snow survival video

Yes Syracuse and Oswego throwing us their table scraps. Some towns in between both will end up with over 6 feet from this. Snowfalls rates there tonight are 3-5 inches per hour. One of these days I have to drive up before a big one.

Willing to bet Wolfie threatened him.

AIFS definitely had a warmup

Sorry was looking at ensembles

Shows basically nada on WxBell too, not that it matters at range

For which rainer?

I'm kind of concerned about the end of the 18z GEFS in what is suppose to be our colder time.. the N. Pacific High pressure extends south and west, giving us more -PNA. The Atlantic has a south-based +NAO. Thankfully it has time to change, as other forecasting agencies and long range products are showing more of a 500mb pattern favorable for cold.

That’s a lot hecs dude

Pros seem to think it was the best performing ensemble model

agree but the "board vibes" would suffer. even some ice would work at this point

Stop subscribing to crappy maps that don’t show snow and cold

Euro AI Ensemble features BN 850 temperatures from hour 228 through the end of the run. Its accuracy at range was dubious during the overwhelming -WPO regime, but perhaps this will be a better test for it.

WB 18Z EPS AI.... all of the hits are at least 11 days away so hopefully we will something to track by the end of NEXT weekend....

Can you post what you’re looking at ?

The temperature soared to 89F (31.7C) in San Antonio. That tied the all-time January record that was set on January 30, 1971.

Let 'em have it. No desire for a mix of crap.

This is Pivotal. I mean, wtf?

with that euro ai look, there would be a few net-gainers. not here maybe but perhaps n orh, most likely north obviously

far enough out where that can change