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The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well. But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it. The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.

Now those are obs

FWIW: I'm running about 3-4 degrees below from forecasted highs so far

ya that trend has to stop asap

And NYC should be a few inches higher, the 2 Dec storms were pretty blatant under measurements at Central Park. But I agree, disappointment tomorrow aside it’s been a great winter so far.

This seems fine? No need to panic yet as it’s still a good depiction.

Not really. There have been plenty of cold stretches of winter with no snow.

Ai gfs is a nice hit but it’s sinking south each run so I’m sure soon it will be a miss south.

Impossible forecast up both our ways.. actually snowing pretty decent here current moment however. Maybe it's a good harbinger of things to come!

Let's see what shit the GFS gets into. H5 is different S/w looks slightly stronger

12z GFS good hit for southside/NE NC. North cut off line the same. But it does have more from the coastal in SE VA 6Z to compare.

I wish this could turn into that storm back in Feb ‘83 that backed in on us at the last minute and gave us over a foot of snow

I wouldn't completely rule out something even Weds or Thurs...one scenario is a slider w/ mostly rain. Another is a similar setup, but it backs the flow as the front passes. Might be room for a slp or weak wave to ride that front.

Oh, I can tell you where the dry slot will be...just look at my screen name! lol

Inside this range go with the 3km NAM/Euro/RGEM...they're going to handle this better than the GFS.

Still damn cold but too much of a breeze to have a chance at low single digits last night.

I hope to do better than 1 inch but this being the one time the NAM is correct wouldn't shock me. Earlier this winter one of the events it kept insisting I was getting 3-4 inches until the bitter end but I got about an inch. The Euro/RGEM gave me about an inch from that one. Here we have the opposite totals but the same models disagreeing.

That’s my preferred method. Which is why I’m riding with the ICON from 3 days ago. I just toss all the runs from the other models, including all the ones from the ICON after my favorite run .

The mean has very limited value at this range, because a few snowy ensemble members can skew it. The probabilistic output is far more useful, but I'm not sure how easy it is to find that on the web.

The GFS was a great run for eastern areas.

And it pushes a little further north into Virginia giving us a little breathing room up north.

That hockey game in State College - good luck with that tomorrow.

I accept this run

This. Should be common knowledge by now