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I get the hate for the last few years for the GFS and you can go with the ol 'broken clock twice a day' angle. But the GFS has been sniffing this out since a week ago. And pretty damn good if it hits on the corresponding storm in the EPAC that far out.
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“Son of ‘38” or “The lawn chair apocalypse of ‘26”
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Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
KakashiHatake2000 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’m hearing isaiahs could develop today at 5 pm also hearing could be a classic tropical tornado threat for the gulf coast states also some beneficial rains for the southeast . -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
EastonSN+ replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The track of the 1992 storm can be found here. Looks like the primary tracked inland to the DelMarva, stalled, then moved out which is why it rained in the beginning in SNE. Seems very different than the recent noreaster and if 92 followed the recent noreaster's track we would have been buried down to the coast at least. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992 -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I try to keep it objective, as we all should. -
Euro gets precip in a little earlier on Sunday
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Climate change autism on here is worse than snow autism. Any discussion of snow/cold (not in this thread, on any thread) hits a button with those who have cc autism. Last winter was especially brutal. There are only a small handful of posters on this board who only post about one thing and one thing only, and its not the snow crowd. -
Euro warm too. A few days later most the country is below normal on the euro.
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- Today
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Very sensitive solutions still based on track. What’s becoming increasingly likely however is that the rain associated with this extends well into the south, mid-Atlantic, and maybe further north.
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Trying to go into the city Sunday for the day hoping the rain holds off……
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Won today 5.64lb two fish But boy was it a cold run this morning. Frost on my truck windshield.
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Euro holds off until Sunday. I have started to look less and less at the GFS at even 100 hours. It has been pretty jumpy.
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I think we can pull a 60 high to 32 by morning here in this pit. Radiators mount up.
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AI's seem too fast with track
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Pretty big timing differences between the euro and the GFS
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Euro has a much deeper storm this run compared to last.
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GFS is a useless model. Not sure why anyone uses it for anything more than 36-48 hours in advance. It flips and flops like a fish out of water from one run to the next. The big snow event in the Northeast last February was one of the very few times the blind squirrel found the nut.
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Winter preview?
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54/37°F, Quite brisk out today, We had frost advisories earlier and now upgraded to a freeze warning, Mid 20's at a min overnight when the relentless winds relax.
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The GFS is so bad it has quite literally been replaced by AI
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The algorithm knows when you stop to look at something even if you don't click on it and you're just scrolling.
