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The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.

Yikes, did we even get half an inch?

It’s 200 hours out. What kind of signal are you expecting?

DC rn

Starting to snow pretty good in west Kingsport now

also every time I make an excuse for not going in this forum I am actually coping. Not happy that I booked my surgery for Aspen trip day. It's a 3-day trip so not worth a day late arrival. But it might as well snow if I can't go...

Just cranking up, heaviest snow of the year in Powhatan

Most of the 12Z mesoscale guidance today showed that the organized snow would have a really tough time making it into the DC Metro area, and that seems to be playing out.

The ensembles suggest multiple waves days 5-12. But the spread-out nature of the QPF suggests disagreement about timing and significance of each in succession. I don't believe we have a clear signal yet for specific storm events or dates. The most tangible is the first, mid-week wave but even this nearer threat is still evolving.

It's snowing now #1 this is fun because I guaranteed somebody no snow before 6pm #2 snow brain saying omg 2" on the way bro

One run ago had nothing for Saturday/Sunday lol. Take with a large grain of salt At the moment.

All frozen Will will do the math

Goes to show how warm its been this decade + when the period has felt so cold yet it barely ranks in the top 50 coldest.

Hoping the Valentines Day timeframe is still there on Monday. it can start being taken really seriously and i can showcase my true lack of knowledge but model jumping and humping run to run.

Well then We better get that midweek system if that’s gonna verify.

Eps is nice

Eps agrees Pattern looks good

It’s coming you already know it!

What's it like to my West? It is snowing up here in Hazleton. It's light, but it is snowing, and I did see it blowing around on 81 with the traffic.

So, that was 10.3” of snow, 2.6” of sleet, and 0.07” freezing rain take!

Disastrous

Dont believe that nonsense.

Yeah basically 72 consecutive hours of precipitation - mostly snow! It ejects a bigger piece of the Pacific trof hitting CA day 4 out ahead of the consolidated ULL. This evolution doesn't have much support unfortunately among the other models save for maybe a few GEFS members. The height field evolution across the northeast days 4-6 is also very different from model consensus right now. I expect a lot of run to run variability for next week for the next few days. I don't like seeing the 2/11 wave trend a little warmer in recent runs across most guidance.

It was right around this date three years ago we actually had a legit severe thunderstorm roll through complete with frequent lightning. Will never forget that especially in February