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what causes changes in the tilt? is this a cyclic change?

84 for highs today for BDR and HVN.

Laki (1782), Tambora (1815) and Krakatoa (1886) also had something to do with it.

The heat definitely looks tempered for up here compared to some previous runs. Idk…maybe it averages a little AN given climo descending, but it looks like more of what we’ve had. I don’t think I’d call 75-80 a torch when we’ve been doing 90° in late September recently.

Volcanic eruptions might been a factor in some of those winters, but it doesn't explain the entire dataset of the 1800s being colder than what started happening during the 1930s either. The most notable volcanic episode was Laki in 1782-83, the winter that followed its eruption was likely the coldest and snowiest winter either North America or Europe has ever had. Washington kept quite the diary of that winter from Morristown NJ. I wonder what the temperature had to be to make the ink in his pen freeze? The lowest documented temperature from that winter that we have is -16 F from NYC just a degree colder than the -15 F that was recorded in February 1934. The 30s were a period of extremes.... Even more notable than the extreme cold was the over one dozen blizzards reported by Washington in our area in that historic winter.

I understand the Little Ice Age quite fine. The northern hemisphere was affected more than the southern, so you can't just go by global averages. In addition to that, regionally the 1800s were quite cold in North America. And with a name like the Climate Changer you should know even a couple of C deviation is massive for a long term average, which was what was occuring during that time period. All I was saying is that since snow records begin in 1869 in New York, those first few decades were weening off the cooler overall regime.

Not really sure how anyone can really come up with a real good analog for this winter anymore.Like Carver mentioned above we have a easterly QBO unlike last year it was more westerly.The SST'S in East Asia are so warm into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan,and in August resulted in the warmest month of August ever in South Korea and Japan,it was the hottest in Japan ever since records were taken back into 1898

Newark has the warmest temperature last November (83°).

Hey guys I've been mulling over starting a social media weather page for the region and what not. What do yall think about that?

Huge storm has blown up in North Buncombe currently.

I don't think the Little Ice Age would be much of a factor. Perhaps @donsutherland1 could weigh in? But looking at proxy-based global temperature reconstructions, it would appear globally temperatures varied no more than about .5C over the preceding 2,000 years until the mid 19th century. And that temperatures by about the 1930s were decidedly warmer than at any time in the preceding 2,000 years. People often bandy around terms they don't understand. Even during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, mid-latitude winters were likely harsher than during the 19th century, as the earth would have been tilted at a greater angle away from the sun during wintertime. The summer warming is just a considerably larger impact, because that's when almost all of the solar radiation falls in the high latitude.

Last year had widespread 80s in November, but I don't think it ever reached 85 did it Don?

75-80 all next week . That’s a furnace

The day the jet stream forgot so much of the 500mb is under 20 kt. I think weather forgot how to happen

Fine with me. I'm missing the 40s and a cool drive to work already at 6am

It is? Tonight Clear, with a low around 41. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Calm wind. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Light southeast wind. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Tuesday A chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Light northwest wind. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the morning.

Yeah it’s going to take a little time but this might very well take off once it has sufficiently organized. Could be some open ocean eye candy.

Impressive 94 at 4pm. Definitely a late summer 94, humidity was 34%.

Wet day in the Twin Cities. After a dry stretch this is welcome moisture as the Butternut Squash in my garden gets ready to be harvested.

Torch!

It was warm today in W MA.

Probably. However, one can't completely rule out a later such temperature, even as it doesn't show up on any of the guidance right now. Just over 1-in-6 years in JFK's period of record saw 86° or above temperatures on September 20th or later. The most recent was 2019 with the epic 95° high on October 2. The last week of the month has some potential with the forecast drop in the PNA, though an even sharper drop would increase prospects.

This is it for weeks.

Not far lol. By ABE