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There’s a little stripe of vorticity along the m/d line that’s stayed pretty consistent on the models. Maybe that adds enough lift to get a coating here. That’s my bar. North shift is nice, but it’s gonna be finding some low dews. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2025120318&fh=42

If I remember from my NE snowstorm books DC tends to get the big storms just as the pattern is relaxing. Or maybe that was just before an AO goes positive, can't remember for sure.

You're welcome

It's been good to see the trend towards a juicier system. At the same time we walk a tightrope where the system maybe trending North pushing the rain snow line north of the VA border. This may not get resolved until precip is falling here in the battle zone (Northern NC Piedmont). Looks great up your way regardless

Lol. Usually keep a grapple on the front of my tractor but I switched it to the bucket today... to move gravel...but you never know lol. Could bomb off the coast and drop a foot. I'm sticking to gut call of 1-2" but would gladly accept the 18z gfs or 12z low res nam haha

Feels like we may be punting the first half of the month down here. At least I moved just far enough north to get a couple of slushy inches which I didn't even get to witness because I was in my old stomping grounds where it snowed for about 30 minutes before changing to graupel/sleet.

Typical Bncho

I remember I did something like that on one of my first posts and I was severely admonished.

Who is going to mention ground temps?!? They're cold for once! Nearly every rain drop will stick. I'm a skeptic until the mulch is white.

Monday system - 18z GFS with not much at all

Looks like the latest MJO is showing Phase 8 and the NAO is negative with that PV dump headed here this weekend and into next, but then it retreats after that. Ended up hitting 40 for a high today and it's currently 35 with dp 24.

Nothing like a wrong snow map getting posted to cause AEDs to be needed across the area

Nice December views today towards Mount Washington.

shoot, wrong one. Sorry about that

18z Rgem came north fwiw.

Wait. Shit

I’m ride or die with this one. Just like I was with the Falcons against Brady

18z GFS beefs totals up again. If only it could be right.

If this general pattern continues we will get a snowstorm.

Thanks, I am an idiot and didn’t notice which run it was. Makes more sense now.

You’re doing good, keep it up

Extended pattern looks great if you're into cold and dry northwesterly flow with maybe an occasional clipper system potent enough to deliver C-2" of snow

I’m coming at this from the perspective of this setup was never really supposed to snow and it was only yesterday it even became a possibility due to out west trending better and emphasize shortwave 1, In a lot of ways it’s more practice than anything. Though I can’t lie and say my mood isn’t boosted by being 100 miles south of most posters.

That’s the 12z run he posted, 18z is better.