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hoodie weather for the foreseeable future thank goodness..

Not me. Heating oil is over $5 per gal. Going to be lots of cold folks in the northeast. Who can afford that? 150 gals = $853.That's insane

1+2 continues to break records,pretty impressive

79.2F before the clouds

We see so many posts like that, some are trolling, some just unawareness, some maybe a combination of both. But the inability for some to differentiate between a seasonal mean and the actual day to day weather is wild. The weather ebbs and flows and changes on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. This shouldnt have to be explained repeatedly on a weather forum, but it does.

Least we have a re-curving phoon the next couple days with a trough going through East Asia,we should possibly see temps drop into the 40's around mid month LOWS,after that not very exciting seeing another seemingly strong WWB upcoming

83

National blend of models forecast for the next week

81

GFS got very wet tonight and early tomorrow morning again

69 dew . How many of those will we have this fall and winter?

I can't say that it will be an analog. But some strong El Niños have been a "one-storm" winter. Even 1997-98, but its storm was 5.0". Some have had no major storms in the region e.g., 1972-73, which also had a pre-October 1 measurable snowfall in Anchorage.

I think we've come a long way the last 2 winters since 23-24 where it seems like the odds we get any 23-24 or December 2015 type thing with this El Nino are going down quite a bit. I really don't think we will be seeing any La Nina looks with this Nino. I think Dec will much more resemble 72/82/97 here than it will 2015, that was just a rare example of where the MJO somehow totally overwhelmed a strong ENSO signal and 23-24 again looked like 18-19 or 19-20, whichever one was the Nino where the atmosphere never coupled. There are some weather bets on some of the rogue sites for cities like ATL/BHM/BNA having zero 70 degree days from 12/1-1/31 this year, that has not happened for any of the 3 since the winter of 13-14, may happen this year I think.

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept. Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below. After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights.

Man, if I’m reading that first link right, that’s real cold compared to today. 80.6° at WXW1 60.8° here at WXW2

Warm and rainy?

80 and dews. Toasty.