All Activity

917, 160 mph. Holy moly

GOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL rricane Erin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... 11:20 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.7°N 62.8°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 917 mb Max sustained: 160 mph

Cat 5 WTNT65 KNHC 161520 TCUAT5 Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1120 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near 917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

And we have a cat 5

I respect the conservative nature of NHC.

Officially Cat 5 now

Best time of the year. Last few weeks of August and the first few weeks of September. Bluebird skies today.

No surprise, Euro didn't bite & only the AI EURO did for a run.

I’m not saying it CAN’T happen, I’m going with my gut and what has transpired thus far/what is projected to transpire in early-mid September. It is my strong OPINION that this is not going to be an above normal ACE season. Can I be wrong? Sure

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep. 2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20. 3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20. 4. 2020 (180) 8/26 5. 2019 (132) 8/30 6. 2018 (133) 9/10 7. 2017 (225) 8/25 8. 2016 (141) 8/30 ——— 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).

Pressure still dropping, around 916mb on that last pass

Yeah .5-1.5°C is a nice boost.

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep. 2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20. 3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20. 4. 2020 (180) 8/26 5. 2019 (132) 8/30 6. 2018 (133) 9/10 7. 2017 (225) 8/25 8. 2016 (141) 8/30 ——— 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%). Edit: We don’t need another storm even near Erin’s incredible strength to end up with an AN ACE season. @snowman19

Yeah. We will get another decently warm stretch the end of the month.

This will likely start re-curving and gaining more latitude probably in the next several hours. These wobbles and what not are more likely attributed to the rapid organization of the storms structure and strength

This is what drives me nuts about Elias. He held off calling him up just for the remote possibility of him appearing on 2 out of the 3 top 100 prospect lists before next year's season and then he goes on to win the rookie of the year award for an extra draft pick at the end of round 1 in 2027. Seems far fetched. He gets more enjoyment out of building an elite farm system rather than having an elite major league roster.

COME ON ERIN WE’RE WATCHING YOU WHILE WE’RE WAITING FOR THE RYANAIR TO FLY US TO IBIZA IT’S HAPPY HOUR IN MANCHESTER AIRPORT SPOONS SHOW US WHAT YOU’VE GOT ERIN Hurricane Erin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.7°N 62.8°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 923 mb Max sustained: 155 mph Disappointed the nonces over at the NHS didn’t claim cat 5 innit

Yup just get these storms into favorable shear with no dry air around and they just explode. When you have these storms in waters that normally warm into the 80’s and are still above average…a degree or two at this stage equates to a great deal of energy.

And it's already west of all those and still moving due west maybe a little south of west

The end of the 6z GFS reaches September 1st. The end is near

It’s a freaking online weather forum. Who gives a shit if a discussion “belongs” in another thread. What a bunch of babies. if you don’t like a post don’t read it. We discuss weather here. Yes even as a believer in climate change some of the posts are excessive, I just don’t read them and scroll on, like an adult.

Most of the Central and W Atlantic are +SST anomalies, it's wild. Erin looks to follow the gulf stream rather nicely too. plenty of OHC to keep going

83 / 68 sunny now

Is there a way to link a response to something on this thread to the banter thread? I hate responding to non-topic "discussions", and further clogging up the thread, but I can't help myself...

Monday and Tuesday I see weather that would fit in my dreams. Temperature in the upper 70s, overcast, slight east wind. Beautiful Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk