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  2. TauntonBlizzard2013
    These last few pages are gold. Tweets, obscure models, it has everything. The reality is, it’s 70+ this week and it doesn’t look like we’re cooling down anytime soon. You know the winter looks bleak when you have to dig really deep to find something positive
  3. kdxken
    Stunner. Perfect day to collect some firewood. Big old black locust. Throw it right in the stove.
  4. bluewave
    Parts of the CONUS are at +8 to +9 and it’s only October. None of the seasonal models were forecasting this from the September runs. Even the early October runs turned out too cool.
  5. A-L-E-K
    racheted myself into a st louis climo
  6. HIPPYVALLEY
    GFS is the only model showing any meaningful precipitation next week. Tossed?
  7. ChescoWx
    10 of the 22 Chesco area stations most at relatively higher elevations have yet to record a below freezing temp. Here in EN I usually don't see a freeze till November and this year looks like no exception. Of note I receive the least amount of freezing days across these observation sites.
  8. ChescoWx
    10 of the 22 Chesco area stations most at relatively higher elevations have yet to record a below freezing temp. Here in EN I usually don't see a freeze till November and this year looks like no exception. Of note I receive the least amount of freezing days across these observation sites.
  9. LakePaste25
    I don’t see the purpose of arguing with someone over and over if you disagree with their forecast. if someone forecasts december 2015, so be it. you can check back later and see if it verifies. Personally think a “super torch” outcome is more likely in the upper midwest instead of the NE because the STJ will extend much further eastward this time around, which means more coastal storms and ridge pushed more into Canada, both limiting factors.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we all are punting a cold and snowy December, but it's important to keep it real, too.
  11. Prismshine Productions
    Plus increased cloud cover from precip will cap the extremes a bit Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  12. Prismshine Productions
    It got up to 72.5 yesterday and going to be in the 50s today
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.
  14. Keith Central PA
    ok lets look at December 2015..NYC CKP..one day with a high of 70, had 11 days with highs over 60, 12 days with highs over 50. 0 days with highs in the 30's, 0 days with temps below freezing in a winter month that's almost impossible. All it takes is one shot of arctic cold, or some rainy days with temps in the 40's. to have a more reasonable above average month.
  15. bluewave
    The exact CONUS locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS. So December 2015 kicking off this new and more frequent CONUS monthly +10 pattern became a trendsetter in terms of this much warmer climate and not an outlier. There is always regional variability involved as to where the highest departures set up. During our last super El Niño in December 2023 it was INL that got the +15.3° departure. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5
  16. ChescoWx
    Looking ahead at the ensemble models it looks like above normal temperatures continue over the next month. That said keep in mind that our average normal temperatures continue to drop quickly over this timeframe. It also looks to be wetter than normal. Some models are even hinting at some accumulating snow by the week before Thanksgiving.
  17. ChescoWx
    Looking ahead at the ensemble models it looks like above normal temperatures continue over the next month. That said keep in mind that our average normal temperatures continue to drop quickly over this timeframe. It also looks to be wetter than normal. Some models are even hinting at some accumulating snow by the week before Thanksgiving.
  18. tamarack
    Forecast for us was 10-16, got 4.5" of slop with a brief power outage. Two days later the forest inventory contractor and I were checking field crew accuracy at Rangeley Bald Mountain, and the melting snow pelted us with icewater for the 8 hours we were out there. I've had nicer days. We actually had some clouds yesterday, an uncommon phenomenon lately.
  19. H2Otown_WX
    Not this year, September (especially on Sunday) sucked lol
  20. H2Otown_WX
    They ended up getting to 43 through cold advection I guess. The wind was from the north at like 7 kts early this morning.
  21. Lucy Pull
    I’m not against seeing +10 or more anomalies in the northern CONUS. I think this is quite probable. Im just not ready to say we rip +10 on the entire east coast. Especially towards the southeast like 2015. If we get an eastern ridge linking up with the Canadian ridge all bets off.
  22. forkyfork
    post about dec 2015 and the hive closes in
  23. mitchnick
  24. nrgjeff
    Should be good at 1,000 to 1,500 FT this weekend. We wasted two perfect weekends for higher elevations, totally sunny. Too many activities with two kids. We're hoping for some local spots that are less crowded; but of course, rain is forecast this weekend!
  25. Ephesians2
    Seeing a lot of tracks like this showing up on the medium-long range models.
  26. Today
  27. Torch Tiger
    Everyone remembers 6/95...besides 8/10/00 the most lightning in sne
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