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TBH I think NYC and points northeastward will hit a decent bare minimum of like 3-5 inches unless absolutely everything goes wrong. We are really just relying on a strong snow band to hit the region which should be all snow before possible mixing concerns as the 850-700mb temp advection continues.

Should be nice there too. Might even get briefly wet there to paste it up a tad?

It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet.

It’s along the CF I think, but definitely Ray’s coke streamers coming off the water too. Hopefully guidance doesn’t regress today.

Honest question: why are the low heights over AK not bad in this instance?

It's his favorite thing to discuss. Enjoy the CJ

Little bit of light sleet falling. 31/18

Happens alot-the Dec 2020 was a good example where the sleet line ended up further north and the NAM was the only model that had it. That said the NAM has been all over the place with this one.

Agreed. There is a nice northeasterly fetch as storm exits. Will enhance and linger snowfall over far E MA.

I don’t see how 6-10 melts with an ice to cold rain scenario for most of SNE

It is kinda crazy how so many of the other models aren't capable of sniffing out the warm nose

Got down to 3°F overnight.

850-700mb vertical velocity is the X factor. Really only about a 6 hour window for it to shine. Stronger, we stay snow, and heavy snow. Weaker, we ping.

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past

Man hi res is pretty sweet. Anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog to post about it.

Very understandable….but in the end it all melts anyway. So might as well enjoy it while you/we can. But I get what you mean. More chances going forward though.

yeah, but it was really impressive sleet...so. much so that henry marguisity quoted me on it....but it was a heartbreaking winter all around that year.

I will be enjoying it nude tomorow with dong and balls in snow.

That’s different than what they showed in the morning news, higher totals there to the NE vs this am

It would be nice for once to keep snow around longer than 48hrs. God forbid that happens.

And that is why you fail to enjoy many times. Be in the moment…it’s the only thing that’s real.

Even if I just get an inch out of this, 8.5” total in December is A+ territory especially of late. I think what this December has shown is that if we get blocking in Jan and feb we can still score. This December pattern has been far from a perfect look so it’s encouraging we’ve gotten as much as we have so far.

Whichever model is showing the least in NYC Metro. Yesterday he was all over the nam. He's a troll.

Absolutely. I never get that thinking. I likened it to having a fabulous day or two in mid April that are 75-80 degrees, but not enjoying it because 2-3 days later it’ll be 41 with drizzle. Idiotic.