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First hard freeze of the season this morning for me, 28.4 so barely but still official.

Got down to 31.9 for a bit still at 32.1 currently

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one.

43f. Balmy Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Another not-quite-a-freeze morning

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Coldest of the season here, 25.5⁰.....by afternoon, shorts and tshirt, the sun still feels so warm as long as their isn't too much wind

25 in Toms River is the coldest reading I see on the 7am NWS Obs roundup.

You know you're getting old when a Honda can be described as an antique. I passed a K-car the other day that had an 'antique' license plate.

I keep hearing about how it's unprecedented this early in the year. That's not true. A good number of significant Stratosphere warmings/coolings have occurred in October, historically. When researching events I used 9/30 as the starting date for the "cold season".

Yeah, the shift of the trough to the SW CONUS has allowed our area to dry out a bit this month.

Yeah, 28F. Insects now be crying for there mamas.

28° (27.7°) for the low again, been below freezing since around 1am.

You might be the warmest place in all of CT right now.

39 for the low here on the shoreline..

27 here as well with a heavy frost too.

Bluewave, is this the beginning of the major storms that batter California during El Ninos?

27/26, another frosty morning

28F here this am, great fall weather coming this week.

The historic El Nino will he driving a deep trough into the West to close out October. So we get an impressive ridge amplification in the East. Models currently have upper 70s for the usual NJ warm spots on the 30th. Normal highs for the date are in the low 60s. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ October 30, 2026 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 61 82 in 1946 41 in 1869

While I do agree that a SSW is an outside outlier chance, as I have been saying. The chance is not zero as of yet. Clearly having one NOT occur is the favored outcome. As it would be an unprecedented event for the time of year. As such that will never be favored. At the same time, seeing the powerhouse Ural block and an unprecedented El Nino, maybe it's best to keep an open mind about something unprecedented. We did have the end of November action in the strat last year, which was largely dismissed by most (myself included) at the time as not being much of a factor. However it proved itself to be an important player further down the line. So it's probably wise to just keep tabs on it for now until the path forward becomes much clearer. As of the 00z 10-25 runs, the EPS achieves wind reversals on quite a few members 42%. That's not insignificant. The GEFS, after having zero interest at all originally, has started to have some lately. Now some of you might be thinking, but it looks like a torch during that period. You would be right, that is also a part of what usually happens during these types of things too. Even if it doesn't go off, there's probably ramifications either way. Worth watching imo.