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I have been following this all year. Gem has lead the way and makes things look even more robust

Looking a bit too warm for Denver proper, but could be a big event for 6000'+. Obviously still plenty of time for things to change, but I don't see a good cold air source for this one.

IMO I see no reason to deviate from my +QBO/El Nino December guess. I completely agree with @Winter Wizard take: “Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.”

John, I’m being extra wary of the GEFS AO progs because of they’ve been verifying significantly too -AO, especially in week 2: July 1st-Oct 28th verification: AO +0.6559 per image below vs mean GEFS progs of (all from image below): day 7: +0.287 (too -AO most days since Sep 1st) day 10: +0.0533 (too -AO since Sep 1st by larger amount) day 14: -0.086 (too -AO since Aug 25th by even larger amount)

We have some cancelling now…it’s comical. I mean, if that’s how one feels…then stay off the board until it’s time to gloat at the end of March. If we end up under 20” for the season as a whole, than I will certainly give the rat callers their credit. I have No issues doing that.

Agreed that if it rises fast, it won't be a good thing for a cold or snowy December especially in light of enso climo. But if you go to the link below for that graph, as recently as 10/14 or 10/15, the PV split (I'll call it for ease) wasn't even showing up on that weekly prog, and was very slow thereafter to show the extent of the PV's demise. So I guess, probably because I've lived in the M. Atlantic snow hole for so many years, I'll not worry about the state of the PV come December or trust the PV forecast at this distance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610140000

i'm trying to figure out if i need to establish alternate/ancillary sources. This measure would be for the off chance that greed and/or corruption and/or the unstoppable epidemic of growing standardizing idiocy, or some combination of all these..., at last succeed in hiding the telecon from general access. It is getting harder and harder to find what should be free. As an aside, humanity really needs a comet named Humility to set it back to something like a realization of how bad their shit stinks and humility. LOL... but this is a lot for an answer to "...looking for something particular?" I know. hahaha Seriously, ... I may have to pick a source and I'd like it to be good. So right now the CPC - the only remaining easy access site - indicates a descending AO modality, ending in a dish-pan negative mode ... -.75 or -1 heading into the first week of Novie. However, the CPC assesses the AO based upon the geopotential height anomaly. This can be misleading at times... because the specific curvature geometry of the isohypses around the stereographic projection of the hemisphere are not always consistent with actual high latitude blocking we'd normally associate with the -AO state. Case in point, last night's extended GEFs rendition around the hemisphere. There is a some semblance, though very modest, of a block in the NE EPO domain N of Alaska there, but that's hardly substantive. This is sort of suggestive that the AOs negative might be coming more from numerical orientation, where positives are N and negatives S; but, not being representative very well in the orientation of the height gradient/geometry. It's kind of fake - so to speak. Other sources/ corroboration might be useful here. That all said, so long as we're on the telecon topic. This is an impressive PNA signal frankly. That image above does fit the +PNA quite well, and so the spatial orientation fit the numerology - and said graphics are remarkably well clustered for late mid and extended range...

This ++PMM setting more records….

Out to lunch

Thanks. I don’t doubt the bad actors! For me this is introducing more variability for Dec than I had assumed previously. Based on @snowman19posts on +QBO/ENSO analogs as well as my own research to confirm Adam’s mild E US forecast, I had been thinking mild Dec except possibly NN SE, especially deep SE. But with this historically very early SSW coming, I feel that there’s increased uncertainty for Dec. Per @Stormchaserchuck1the avg lag from an SSW to first getting well down into the troposphere early in the season is 35-40 days if I recall correctly. This would mean ~Dec 9-14 for it to first reach well down. And then it would last for a period of time (most likely 2-3 weeks minimum per history). Thus, this increases the possibility of a cold overall E US Dec, especially mid to late month and especially SE US, vs my prior thinking from very low to a nontrivial chance.

I thought that the earlier in the season SSW's happen, the longer they take to propagate to the troposphere? 30-45 days is what I believe I read for November.

This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is certain to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee…. We have left 1997 in the dust:

The great thing about analogs is that even the most "perfect" match does not mean the winter will be even close to it.

Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.

Not much history/experience with Mr Webb's conjectural advances in all honesty ...Alhough, yeah - I know there's a reposting habit in this social media. I am aware the man exists... if 'man' is how he identifies, notwithstanding. heh No, but in a vacuum, we'd need to have some sort of physically plausible "connective tissue" between the stratospheric polar vortex and the ENSO. I know of none. Frankly, everything I've been taught, read since, or experientially observed in real time over decades suggests there exist a direct ENSO-to-vortex wiring like that. However, this doesn't rule out an indirect causal linkage... perhaps a time lag? - but such a conjecture sees logical problems of it's own. Namely, this +ENSO is new - despite the histrionics and empirical eye-pop numbers - both - it is recent, so lag is immediately suss. Moreover, we just past through summer... First, the only way there is to connect the tropics to the stratosphere altitudes up N is via tropospheric planetary-wave transports and decay ... (that's also the seeding pathway to the SSW phenomenon, btw - although there's papers about extraterrestrial source but excluding for brevity ...). Therein is the logical/epistemic breakdown: planetary wave transport, through mid latitude weak gradient summertime/seasonality, is almost non-existent. It is too weak and transport momentum decay prior to the intrusion altitudes of the PV/high altitudes ( stratosphere) over the AO domain. Most of autumn is in fact still in this limitation until later then now. In simple terms, the canonical summer/early to mid autumn hemisphere is physically excluding those two disparate fields from the only pathway empirically and geo-physically demoed as a means for the S to affect the N. None of this offers a sense of support to Webb's 'hunch'.

"I am skeptical that the polar vortex is well enough defined this early in the season for there to be any impacts on the troposphere. That said, if there is an impact on our sensible weather, which I am doubtful of, then I would expect a very cold November." Seems about right. Personally, I think we are waiting on two main things to determine the early character of this winter. 1. Does the wet pattern start by the end of next weekend? Models have advertised this for a while and I'd argue its the first real sign of the el-nino coupling with the atmosphere in a way that matters for us. If this pattern is continuously can-kicked that is a sign of trouble for our STJ hopes this winter. 2. Does the SSW occur? If so, do we see a related cold air outbreak on the models for late November? Additionally, how does the AO and NAO respond. If we get a favorable AO/NAO showing up on forecasts for November and December I'd argue that is a good sign we might have a shot this winter.

Weird to see clouds in the sky. I swear I haven't seen any for like 10 days

As expected then The surface-level weather effects from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the United States typically last for 2 to 6 weeks on average. [1] While a major SSW event drastically disrupts the polar vortex high up in the stratosphere, its effects do not impact ground weather immediately. Instead, there is a 10- to 20-day time lag as the atmospheric changes ripple downward to the surface, causing the jet stream to become wavy and unstable. [1, 2, 3] Once those effects arrive, the impacts on U.S. weather patterns include: Prolonged Cold Spells: Rather than a brief cold snap, the weak polar vortex patterns lock in atmospheric blocks that can extend below-average temperatures for several weeks. [1, 2] Increased Storminess: A wavy jet stream frequently shifts the storm track, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation and winter storms. [1, 2] Regional Variation: An SSW event does not guarantee uniform cold across the entire country. For instance, a collapsed or split polar vortex often unleashes severe cold into regions like the Northern Plains or the Midwest, while other regions like the Eastern Seaboard can occasionally experience temporary warming depending on exactly where the cold air mass migrates. [1, 2, 3] The previous expectations of a back loaded winter by many might turn into a front and back loaded winter with a break in the middle in January - time will tell

Yes they do have a selection. Not everything but some. Looking for something in particular?

@SnowenOutThere WRT advice, first of all I have made so many mistakes in my life I don't know how valid any advice I give would be. But a few things I think I think now... 1) Invest your energy in people who deserve it 2) focus most of your attention on things you have a modus of control, don't waste energy on fights you have very little ability to affect change 3) if you are going to invest a lot of time and energy on external abstract fights...the one I think is most worth fighting right now is trying to change the landscape of the information infrastructure of our society. Long term I don't think the battles we are fighting are winnable in the current information ecosphere. We lost the editorial system that produced an objective reality and truth for society. There was plenty wrong with that system, but at least it stood to prevent society from being inundated with BS and falling victim to a reality where anyone can say anything and it all seems to hold equal value. I am not sure what the solution is. 30 years ago the solution was to never let us get to this point. To not allow companies like Fox to circumvent established regulations on news by registering themselves as "entertainment" while portraying themselves as "news". The left was asleep at the wheel while the right systemically attacked the sources of our information so they could win a long term framework argument with society. Destroying objective truth is very valuable to people who hold opinions contrary to all objective evidence. This then became amplified when the internet, which is largely unregulated, became the main source of information. How to put that back in the bag now? It will be very difficult but we need some kind of editorial regulation of what is acceptable as "news" or we are screwed because too many people are not smart enough to be reliable editors of their own information sources.

A good 20 degrees above average today with a high in the mid 60's. Rain moves in after dark. Can't really complain.

Nice!! Reading and waiting for SPC outlooks on big event days is like waiting for Christmas morning on Christmas Eve to open presents

hey bro, does "weathermodels.com" carry teleconnector lays? AO/NAO/EPO/WPO ... PNA PDO ENSO ...etc ?

Neither gardens in September nor car batteries in January believe the cold is fake. And the transpirationally boosted dews feel tropical even when the open hilltops are more pleasant. Citing "fake" as pejorative is a bit silly. 17° this morning, ice on the washtub 3/8" thick. Time to swap it with the snow scoop for the under-porch spot.