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And to 1/15 too…

cue the 2015 redemption arc

9z Srefs like the idea of rain ending as snow too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026011306&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

It’s very similar to last year.

Same shit happened in Jan of 15 too…the melts were epic…from eastern areas especially.

Along with most of the country

Define less than a few please…

Now they know…so I guess we’ll be moving on from the vocabulary lesson this morning.

yeah would be nice time to have a lake house in sw michigan

What’s sad is that SNE will have less than a few inches of snow this month through Jan 20th.

Couple Several A few …edge of my seat debates.

It's really hard to take someone seriously who constantly calls other people stupid when that guy can't spell or use punctuation correctly. Not to mention, he's not that good. (accurate)

Ha!

These are the types of conversations when winter isn’t behaving properly…

C'mon lol

HRRR is at its max range but it definitely threw a bone to everyone east of 75. .

The footprint for Sunday screams overrunning on a few models, which is the only reason I’ll hold out some hope. We wouldn’t be remotely close to a final solution if it’s an overrunning event.

If the pattern sets up right and things align correctly, we may not have to worry about melting anything within a few days but we'll have to see what happens moving through the first week of February. A bit more in the way of uncertainty in this respect. At least the incoming cold is setting the stage, now we just have to hope the show delivers.

You don’t have to be sure…the weather will decide for you.

I hope so...If it was me, I would prefer the snow to come now before any cold sets in. Not sure I wanna go through 2 weeks of crazy cold, have an overrunning event of snow then melt it a couple days later...

I didn't really think it was that big of a deal I said final few weeks of the month..so then just replace few with couple. It's not like I said it with one full week left to go.

We can use that Brillo pad beard of his to scrape the ice off the windshield in the mornings…

nahhh we all should be cautiously optimistic moving through next week and the following week

@weatherwizI'm not sure why I get the weenie because you make it through grad school not knowing what a few means.

Wxrisk.com NEAR HALF POINT OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER and more about JAN 15-16 NON EVENT One of the reasons why I change the avatar, especially during the winter months is to give you an idea on what I think of the overall worker pattern and of course snow chances for the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. I have been reading a few comments that some people thought I had committed to the January 15 16 winter storm threat scenario or outcome. When I issue the SNOWDOG HOLMES it simply means that I think there's a real possibility of something that's happening but it's just a possibility and not a forecast. I am not sure if this is a failure on my part to communicate or the fact that some people just really fooking stupid. Maybe some people don't enjoy all the scientific meteorological discussion and just want the simple forecast. There is nothing wrong with that but that's not what I knew here. In the next weather video on Wednesday I will go into this more detail but experienced meteorologists that do operational weather forecast -- that is to say daily weather forecasting and weekly forecasting -- know that there is this peculiar BARRIER er or breakpoint that exists between the extended models and the shorter range models. That BARRIER is somewhere around 60 to 84 hours-- 2.5 to 3.5 days. I cannot tell you of the number of times I have seen the weather models forecast a severe weather outbreak or snowstorm or hurricane threat at 7 or 8 days out and consistently show that kind of scenario only to see it suddenly changed dramatically at 72 hours. Why does that happen ? As good as the super Advanced satellites are there is still a large “data void” of high quality reliable data covering the Pacific basin. If we keep in mind that all weather is connected and for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction then it is easier to understand why this barrier in the forecast process is actually there. For example if the weather models are showing a big storm by the Aleutian Islands at Day 5 that the weather model jumps on to develop an Arctic air mass outbreak across the eastern US at day 8, that can suddenly look very different once we reach 72 hrs. Weather systems in the Eastern Pacific and the west coast of North America usually take three or four days to travel across the continent. The data becomes much more solid and refined and as a result the computer models no longer have to “guess” what the pattern is looking like in the Pacific Ocean. On the other hand there have been some famous hurricanes and East Coast snow storms where the global models at 6, Day 7 or Day 8 days that got the forecast almost exactly right without any variation or sudden changes. The January 2016 blizzard is one example of that. the January 2014 East Coast snowstorm. The 3 winter storms that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January early February of 2010. The primary reason why those events were accurately predicted by the extended weather models is because the MJO -- the Madden Julian Oscillation -was in the phase that supports that kind of winter pattern. In other words the MJO and the computer models were aligned perfectly. With this event for January 15 16 they are NOT aligned at all which is one of the reasons why I was skeptical