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Skipped the coke tonight.

CPC has above average precip in the Mid Atlantic too, which would definitely translate to snow chances in the coldest 2 weeks of the year. We will have to do cold with -EPO/-WPO though, because the long range models are building a +NAO pattern in the Atlantic. We have ridging possibly at 90N, and then a south-based +NAO underneath of it. We saw the same pattern last February.

Hey guys trying to catch up...I know we are tracking snow potential but more importantly how warm are we going to get in a few weeks?

No thanks. The worst.

When JB gives a forecast..

I'm praying for your Mom Powell. It's always tough when our parents are suffering.

Ken Reeves

Well now it certainly won’t happen. Fantasy

Also some very impressive squall action Sunday… paging @high risk

If the CPC is correct, that would be a good look for cold and would possibly translate over to wintry weather chances. Colder than normal temps at peak climo for second half of January and first week of February is ideal. But it’s also PNA related. A negative PNA will drive trough and cold into west which would lead to heights rising in the east. Most model guidance shows a return to a -PNA towards the end of their range. Whether that moved up in time remains yet to be seen

So far so good.

I agree. I can understand using analogs to a point. But I think JB uses analogs too much, no matter how many different variables there are. He will follow an analog over a cliff if it agrees with his thinking.

Lanning's body language says it all. No hyped up shaking tonight.

Very interesting crash in Natural Gas over the last 4 weeks This is now one of the lowest prices on record for January vs inflation. This is showing probability for a very +NAO for the rest of this Winter, and imo some sign for +NAO next Winter too. CPC continues to predict cold for the Northeast.. will the price rise from $2.63 by Feb 6th? stay tuned... So far the price has not moved up after a cold January forecast call for the Northeast. I went back and analoged it and found a weak East coast, US signal for January vs a very strong Europe signal.. central Europe was like +8F in the mean... it's very NAO-weighted.

Me too!!..Definitely!!!!

Both windows have their flaws, but that's almost always the case with snow chances at our latitude. We need some luck with timing and wave interactions most of the time. It's how we roll. Mid month is pretty close on most recent runs, and a pretty good bet these modeled outcomes are the result of some amount of error wrt wave spacing and timing- still 6 days out.

Praying for you and your family Powell

Ya'll need to see where the 18z GEFS ended its run...nice trend. We saw that once or twice yesterday, and now it's back.

Penn State's loss to Indiana is looking really impressive in hindsight.

laughing my butt off. some funny stuff here tonight. we need a storm....

Very high could mean all the IPAs that have been flowing here this afternoon... I'm looking forward to seeing if this time frame can produce. At least there's something to track at least for now

Prayers for your Mom and family Powell.

"Very high" in terms of confidence that it will snow, or "very high" in terms of the perceived ceiling....

The only time I really ever watched JB videos is when he did "Point, Counter-Point" on AccuWeather. I can't remember the name of the other Met that would do the videos with him. I believe he died at a fairly young age from some sort of ladder accident. Does anyone remember the name of the other met on "Point, CounterPoint". I actually thought that his points were better than JB's.