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  2. Snowcrazed71
    So I'm just curious. I saw a few posts from different people saying that they're expecting this El nino to be a Modoki El Nino for the summer and winter. And they're saying with that it's opposite of a typical El nino. Just curious on thoughts from you guys on this
  3. suzook
    Woke up to rain/mist this morning...another dreary day.
  4. MANDA
    I'd take the February 83 renegade storm and call it a win !
  5. wncsnow
    Op Euro looks dry through the middle of June. Hopefully the recent wet period was a sign of change and not an aberration. We need continued rain. The water table is still quite below average.
  6. weatherwiz
    Weekend is going to be all about the warm front. I would not be surprised if guidance is a bit too hung up with the warm front and at least southern areas end up in the warm sector. But not a good sign when you see the sfc low weaken as it crosses the Great Lakes region. That's a good way to stall the warm front or transition it to a stationary front and we never truly warm sector and end up cool with clouds/showers. Uncertainty high for sure weekend and early next week...potential is there to get quite warm but need things to work out
  7. forkyfork
    so?
  8. CT Valley Snowman
    57 and raining now. Craptastic.
  9. WinterWolf
    Juneorch at its best.
  10. CoastalWx
    Shit day. Too cold.
  11. CT Valley Snowman
    15 years ago today was the most insane severe weather day I have ever experienced. June 1. 2011.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    12/5/2 .
  13. WX-PA
    Analog's 72-73,82-83,97-98 and 2015-2016..which ones do you like? lol
  14. WinterWolf
    Ya this blows .
  15. GaWx
    Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.
  16. snowman19
  17. dendrite
    The radiators definitely leaned colder BOS +2.4 PVD +1.1 PWM +0.6 ORH +0.3 BDR +0.3 CON -0.4 BDL -0.6
  18. metagraphica
    Almost noontime and still 56. This is no way to run Summah™.
  19. Today
  20. GaWx
    But what’s mysterious is that there have been numerous chilly winter maps posted for this and past winters with many significantly colder than this and without objection. Yes, this is colder than the prior month’s run, which was my main point, but it’s still NN in the E US. The coldest is only 0.5C BN, which is NN. Granted it’s 1981-2010 climo, but that’s still NN. So, it’s not even a cold map there!
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE.
  22. Typhoon Tip
    getting your clearing down here finally up to 59! woo hoo
  23. michsnowfreak
    I do.
  24. MANDA
    Not saying I disagree with this outlook, I don't. On the other hand I have always found these maps to be kind of useless in terms of "how much above". They say nothing for the projected departures. .5 degrees or 5 degrees? You really have to go look at EPS for the most part to get the best idea of how much above the period will be. For the sleepy general public looking at this map it screams heat wave. Just my 2 cents. I think they could do better on this product to convey the above normal message.
  25. michsnowfreak
    Yeah. ENSO affects winter the most, with more subtle effects in summer/Fall. I absolutely love Fall, so Im hoping that its a seasonable October. Some strong Nino falls tend to be cool, but if this strong nino isnt acting like one, then who knows?
  26. GaWx
    Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you ever having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps as a follow-up to raindance’s post. To me it was a perfect example of this:
  27. michsnowfreak
    Weve always discussed the weather in the ENSO threads. Im really going out on a limb here, but I have a feeling the Cansips not caving from its cold idea is what prompted that suggestion.
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