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Check this out regarding 8+ day long MJO phase 8 since 1974-5: Fifteen 8+ day winter phase 8 periods back to 1974-5 in # of days, amp, (practical) # days of preceding phase 7; Balt snow/temps: -1/19-31/75: 13; amp 2.1; 3; 3.5”/MA -12/19/75-1/5/76: 18; amp 1.0; 2; 0.5”/B -1/27-2/3/76: 8; amp 2.3; 4; 1.3”/N -2/8-15/76: 8; amp 1.8; 4; T/A -2/20-28/1978: 9; amp 1.8; 3; T/B -2/17-26/82: 10; amp 1.1; 0; 5.2”/N -1/21-30/83: 10; amp 1.5; 0; T/N -1/12-22/85: 11; amp 1.6; 9; 2.8”/MB -12/31/87-1/7/88: 8; amp 1.2; 6; 4.3”/MB -2/21-29/88: 9; amp 3.2; 5; T/B -12/9-18/89: 10; amp 1.1; 4; 5.5”/MB -1/2-9/97: 8; amp 1.9; 6; 2.4”/MA -2/16-24/99: 9; amp 2.1; 4; 0.6”/B -2/7-17/10: 11; amp 1.7; 16; 19.6”/MB -2/15-23/19: 9; amp 1.9; 1 (5); 4.5”/A ——————— Analysis of above: - The # of days of phase 7 preceding these long phase 8 periods have a large majority of the time been <7 days. - Consistent with the great post today of @bluewave, look how sharply the frequency has dropped off: 5 in the 2nd half of 70s, 6 in the 80s, 2 in the 90s, 2 in the 10s, and none in the 1st half of the 20s. -So, from 1974-5 through 1989-90, there was an avg. of 0.7/winter. But since 1990-1, there has a mere 0.1/winter or only 1/7 the frequency! -But when they occur, they still have been leaned pretty hard on snow and cold based on Baltimore: Temps: MA: 2 A: 2 N: 3 B: 4 MB: 4 - So, twice as many cold as mild - Total snowfall 50.2” over these 151 days, which means an average of 0.33” per day. That’s almost 150% of the Jan-Feb 1974-2025 average daily snow of 0.23”. - So, although they’ve been much harder to come by, lengthy phase 8 periods remain highly desirable for a winter lover in the E US. @donsutherland1

I keep telling people this but no one wants to listen. I’m not an, “I told you so!” guy….but I’m not gonna be shocked if we lose once or twice to Pittsburgh and teams like NE/GB

2 ugly wins in a row against bad teams. That wont get it done going forward against better teams.

This but unironically. The pac jet permanently cancelled snow odds for the tristate.

Eh I think for a scenario like this it wouldn't be. He's not somebody who is going to get another P4 job unless he succeeds here and with the Portal and NIL, the kids are eventually going to become loyal to the cash and not the coach. I just don't see another hire right now that overwhelms you. So if you can't get that home run, you know this guy hits for average. Who ordered the wind?

JFC I hope that's wrong.

are you saying that we just don't know?

Plenty of cold available on today’s Euro Weeklies from week 2 through 6.

Never a doubt

Another sucky Ravens team performance. But a win is still a win.

My back faces the NE and the front faces SW and I will not lie to you when I say that the SW-facing front gets blasted (especially in summer but also in winter as the low sun angle still favors the south). Any snow that might accumulate on the roof in the front is always the first to disappear where the back roof snow lingers for a long time. So I think that makes a difference with the air running through duct in the roof. However if there's a nor'easter, the rain (or snow in winter) chills it all down quick, fast, and in a hurry, especially in my back bedroom! The low IMBY this morning of 30 was the coldest since April 9 and my first this season below freezing. I had picked up 0.36" of rain yesterday, with a low of 35 and high of 51. It's currently partly sunny and 50 with dp 38.

I think so too man. We're not going back. I can see NYC settling on a 15ish inch mean for good now, absent a volcanic eruption like bluewave said.

Light snow shower here

Today’s Euro Weeklies aren’t what you want to see if you don’t want them to be warmer than yesterday: the most intense cold on the run is W and SW of Chicago and perhaps near ME. I personally hate them because the colder the better and I hate sweating in winter when I take my walks. Note that the warmest anomalies in the US are in the deep SE: Dec 1-7: very slightly warmer/strong SER: Dec 8-14: slightly warmer/stronger SER lingering: Dec 15-21: warmer/SER won’t give up Dec 22-28: SER finally weakened but slightly warmer NE vs yesterday Dec 29-Jan 4: SER staying weak but slightly warmer NE vs yesterday:

Yeah the past two fall seasons featured the Same problem. Very strange, cant be a good sign. It’s crazy how 2019 winter (which was seen as almost a dud at the time because NYC only had 20”, is actually better than almost all other winters we have seen in the past 7 years). Thinking this is probably the new normal.

December's looking bad according to today's CFS v2 weeklies.

100%. It is so bizarre to see like none of the conus with snow cover this late into November. Can't be a good sign. Even if the cold shot early dec bleeds east like the weenies think it'll quickly moderate anyway from the lack of snowcover. Not gonna cancel winter on Nov 23 but i wouldn't be surprised if this is another stinker.

31.9F Light snow vis 1.5 miles

First "measurable". Weee!

Good thing it’s not even real winter you silly person. If it even plays out like your model output says .

33° -SN Sticking in shaded spots

Not too bad here today. Just hovering above 32° after a high of 34°. A beautiful picturesque snow. Hasn’t taken long for Lake Flower to freeze over. I see some deep cold on the Euro too…

Basically whichever way you slice it the atmosphere is biased against cold and snow in the east now.

Luckily the Euro doesn't carry nearly as much weight anymore.

Because that's too far out. Underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril.