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Yeah this has always been a Maine storm

Yup.

And honestly, after like 20ish days of BN temps....we were long overdue for some warmer weather. I kind of roll with LC. I don't think the MJO is actually having an impact right now...just a really washed out and conflicting signal. I think Nina climatology is driving this. The trough should pull back west for part of the winter due to Nina climatology alone. Then, as the pattern relaxes at some point in January, it may all rush eastward. Very, very complicated pattern in the week 2-4 timeframe right now. The duration and strength of the NAO is likely key. The good thing is that we now know that model feedback has caused two pretty significant errors this winter in the week 2-4 range. As one met noted in another thread yesterday, when models start flipping back and forth....can't really trust that until it settles down. The potential NAO and HL has upended things. We are really one good cutter or coastal from having a pretty massive cold air mass slide all the way to New Orleans. I think we will have a better idea by around Christmas time...

I can't remember who it was but someone in this subforum cancelled this winter, last year.

The 18Z GEFS for the first time from like 360-384 shows signs of a +PNA trying to develop but I'd bet its close to the 12th-15th before any chance of it

Is Mattapoisett on the south coast? You should have stayed in the money pit. Didn't you used to be out in the Berkshires?

As long as we all get 1-4” will be white for Christmas.

This area has a tendency to get 7/11 split as it pertains to latitude.

It’s dropped down to us. It’s a raging mini blizzard out there right now.

Well we’ve had cold shots in crap patterns that are followed by much above average temps 5 days later.

Nah I think you’re gonna do ok . May get into the Nor for a bit

While we haven't moved in down there yet (have a couple months of work to do before that happens), I do not think there will be any toaster--just envy. Sort of like when PF is posting about his upslope when Kevin's posting about uninstalling. While James had visions of blizzards every time he'd look at F300 panel, I have no expectations of snow down there.

Twitter/X dweebs.. Many agendas. Opinions are like assholes.

My area will get it...no doubt.

1) Winter is not over in the Mid Atlantic. Pattern WILL reload, and ready those shovels, hoard foods, and IPAs. Dozens of them. 2) Weather eye out west. Prolly just rain, but some places might get clobbered yet beginning Tues. Precip gradations some maps at ski resorts like Mammoth, they are now actually running out of colors as some places north California now expected to get well over 20 INCHES of pure water, now thru Dec 26. If that ends up as snow, time to get out of there right now while you still can because they are gonna run of of food fast. It's probably going to end up some rain, but you've been warned. More like 18 inches pure rain, 2 inches water as 20 inches snow. For the Mid Atlantic, The Best Is Yet To Come.

There are subtle signs of an aleutian breakdown, depending on progress of mjo

Cutters would help. Where the Aleutian sets up shop as I noted yesterday is what matters. Lots of noted uncertainty ahead. That is what make the hobby both challenging and fun.

Subby hole ( assuming there is one ) looks like it would be C/ E MA as they’re too far East from the WAA forcing and Miss most of the norlun . But that’s still tbd

sweet spot!

maybe, maybe not

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence.

Found this interesting Low confidence forecast continues Friday into next weekend as a boundary will be separating very cold air/below normal temperatures to our north and unseasonably mild temperatures to our southwest. There is a high across Quebec and pattern recognition would indicate good support for shallow cold air to invade southern New England. The 12z ECMWF is most aggressive with the shallow cold air...especially on Friday with daytime temperatures mainly in the 20s! Meanwhile...the 12z GFS is the mildest of the guidance with temperatures at the same time in the 50s! The interesting thing is that the GFS AI model is much colder and more similar to the ECMWF. Assume it is probably an indication of past performance/pattern recognition. While we are not sure it will be quite as cold as the ECMWF...we certainly want to lean colder based on pattern recognition and support from the AI guidance. But again...tremendous uncertainty continues in this forecast.

Your area might try and get a piece of the IVT. But IVTs are thought to forecast. Keep checking back tomorrow on that.

Still doesn't adress why we need thr warm pook to move east to get +TNH.

Lol, why do I have a feeling the the "sucker" hole is from ASH to Ray's hood....