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It sucks running a page with 13k followers during a storm like this. You barely have a clue but the people demand numbers and you just have to do your best.

That’s nice beefy qpf, thought that was a kuchera map at first.

18Z for reference

None of the other 0z mesos look remotely like that NAM run. I'm tossing the NAM at this point as it's such a big outlier.

Icon slightly north

Icon ticked north too. Not like Nam though lol.

Yeah the low can still be not too far north but we all get sleet instead of snow because of that mid level warmth. Southwest flow event storms like these tend to have more mid level warmth than expected. Been countless instances of storms with this track (not just in 2020s but 2010s as well), where the precip is delayed and then we have mainly sleet from the onset and the totals end up being cut in half of What was originally expected

2020 melted Christmas Eve/Day straight up through Maine with a 50s/60s pouring rain thunder stem winder. 2013 Not sure

New NAM is coming north by how much will soon know

Absolutely not. A big hit would be 6-8+”. 4” snowfalls happen on average a few times a year. This decade has been filled with ratters though so that skews our mindset. That being said, if central park measured properly, they would have had 4” in the last storm along with the February 2024 storm. They just don’t measure properly

The 18z EPS had a few members in that vicinity. And the GEFS had a few that were a little south but close. That surface track is possible though still somewhat unlikely. The mid-level low tracks are possibly more important.

Yep. Complete nowcast event probably.

I dont believe this is a "non event".

Forecasting this is like blindly throwing darts at the models and hoping one will be right. It's such a weird setup and the models apparently don't know how to handle it. You can't really look at past storms as analogs with this either because it's so rare to get storms like this.

AIGFS all snow SE PA

I’m trying to take winters in stride more and really enjoy seasons when it feels like winter again. So far so good this month…

Hrrr looks like the upgraded NAM with NYC dryslotted and a stripe over S PA. Model mayhem

Currently 40.5/30.6 at 9:45 pm after a 61.4 degree high this afternoon.

Merry Christmas everyone. Us foothills folks deserve a February 1969 redux for Christmas

Every single one of them. I don’t even think we were close on any of them, as in, they were gone several days before

Flurries possible overnight? Radar, HRRR, FV3 etc say maybe. But only Santa will know.

My wife's home town in Wyoming broke it's record for Christmas eve by 9 degrees and tied the all time December high temp of 65

Fv3 is a significant snowstorm ha!

Too soon to tell. This is one run of one model but will need to see what the rest of the 0z suite shows .

Thank you. Have a wonderful Holiday season, too.