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Hanging our hopes on the RAP… this is what I’ve come to.

i'm seeing warm temps in my forecasts.....but i've seen that change on a dime too over the years....

Agree. I’m 80/20 plowable/memorable.

Yes, we’ve know the flavor of this winter and how the models are handling it for awhile now. Epic looks a week+ out only to start scaling back as we move up in time from there. My thinking is, the ceiling for this is probably a high-end SECS. Of course that means a nothing burger is still on the table. We just can’t know!

Umm yeah thanks for the scoop ..

23” with 50 mph winds out of the west with snow 2” an hour February 10th 2010. It was a MONSTER!! Never have I seen 50 mph winds out of the west with 2” hour rates for 2 hours straight a really crazy storm. It looked like a huyricsnd hurricane east of Ocean City Maryland.

Oh my - the view from the cam is currently amazing. Full bore dumping ongoing.

okay

Its been a pretty meh winter for most of the USA including the Mid Atlantic (New England has done pretty well). NC/VA piedmont might be the jackpot compared to average. Most of the Rockies have been historically snowless but are starting to catch up a little. Its been about an average winter here.

Now why would u like that run..?? unless u live well east of us. Makes no sense unless u don't want it to happen

As though the model is telegraphing future efforts to use eastward tending as vehicle for gradient normalization.

Noticeable improvement which is good.

Or as CoastalWx would say, "DIAMOND DUST AT 30,000 FT!!!"

Agreed. Its hard not to get excited with these insane solutions but like you said, it's even harder to get a storm of that magnitude in these parts. We fall for it time and time again. Especially this winter when models are struggling even inside 5 days. Not to mention we haven't been in the type of pattern that is conducive of big wrapped up lp's climbing the east coast. Almost everything trends more flat, strung out, and suppressed recently. I hope im wrong. I just can't forget the numerous head fake insane snow maps 5 days out just to watch it fizzle out to another "storm that was so close." Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

GEFS a bit west / wetter 18z vs 12z

Something else that's been bothering me about these western outlier runs that are bringing the goodies ... they just look unalloyed to the surrounding when so nucleated like this below. ALB with 10 kts of N drift while New Canaan CT with 72 mph roof peeler gusts. First Tor'easter ever observed on the planet. You know how baroclinic/extratropical cyclones are suppose to spread their momentum out of a larger area - hello.

ACWATT

Wow, climo says snow is the unlikely outcome for the Mid Atlantic? This is a truly shocking and bold call to stick with, I've been here thinking that snow is a sure bet around here.

Yet 90% of the time, the people who say the models are full of crap and that we aren't getting a storm, end up being correct. And all the rest of the post are actually the garbage.

Yes. That is a concern...the disinterest of the EURO camp is an issue. I still hedge in that direction...maybe not cirrus, but not sold on a blizzard.

The Sunday/Monday system looks like like it could be a beast north of us somewhere

21z RAP just shifted back north.. Hopefully 18z was a blip

Still solid on GFS.