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  2. Keith Central PA
    No doubt it will be warmer in December but a resonable + 5 like 82 and 97( which means it could snow)..to a 2015 December +12 gives you no chance
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to pose this question again...which is rhetorical for me because I know the answer...identify the bonafide El Niño events with no MC forcing and a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan.
  4. vortex95
    Sometimes the tightness/RI *saves* and area from a bigger hit. Melissa over Jamaica was similar. If Melissa had be a long-tracked Cabo Verde, it would have been much larger when striking Jamaica. Sure, it may not have been as intense since multiple ERCs would preclude its sub-900 mb intensity, but a large Cat 4 impacting the entire island vs. only 1/3 of the islands getting Cat 3+ winds is not the same. Also, the wrn 1/3 of Jamaica is significantly less populated, and one of its main airports went largely unscathed, and the other being on the N coast on the wrn side of the island had sig less impact than if it were on the S side. Compare to Gilbert at cat 3 in Sep 1988 that cut down the full length of the Jamaica E-W w/ the entire land devastated. 80% of home lost their roofs. At least w/ Melissa on about 1/2 of the island, one could find relief, relatively speaking, short-term before full aid arrived and was distributed.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ditched the MC idea over the summer...he misunderstood my post...in fact, the dearth of MC contribution is in integral part of my final thesis.
  6. ThePhotoGuy
    A balmy 43 for the low.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It also extends further west...it's just more expansive and intense.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No issue with that....December should be similar.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong.
  10. kdxken
    No thanks. Today's perfect. As many as we can get please.
  11. soadforecasterx
    Loving your results. I recorded a low of 38.3. Pretty spoton to what you have posted. Honestly was a little let down I only got down to 38.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did you read my post? I said, "then eliminate the ones with MC contribution".
  13. CoastalWx
    It’s a nothing burger
  14. EastCoast NPZ
    Nearest PWS says overnight low of 31F. Pretty heavy frost when I got up.
  15. gallopinggertie
    Don’t worry guys, past mass extinction events were caused by much less sudden warming than what Earth is currently experiencing but it’s totally fine because I found a neat graph about coral. https://www.barrierreef.org/the-reef/threats/climate-change
  16. donsutherland1
    The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence. The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.
  17. bristolri_wx
    To quote Glenn Frey, “The Heat is On” - 34 earlier this morning as the low.
  18. WEATHER53
    36 for low in White Oak and 32 Frederick
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think the record warmth will be in the early part of November, like the other even years this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024).
  20. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the drought out in plains and west is causing a feedback loop too.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December.
  22. DavisStraight
    I turned the pellet stove on overnight, got us up to 74 running on low.
  23. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    get ed meds today: vigorshieldrx - online erectile dysfunction prescription
  24. wncsnow
    33 and light frost
  25. Layman
    26.8 for the low here. First fire in the wood stove of the new season. Let's give it a few weeks til we light it up again.
  26. Nikoss427
    Right next to Birch Grove, around 750ft up
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