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Tough not to defer to the European suite at day 1-3.

You know I'll follow yalls recommendation. I'm too much of a softie. But say the word

Was curious about my own average. While my dataset is much much smaller, after 12 full winters I am averaging 23” a winter

Hope you are right and I'm adjusting later this week.

For the love of God can people stop using teleconnections like this? If all that weather prediction was was matching patterns then the AI models would win every time. Ironic because the AIFS is showing the best snow right now and it takes into account like several hundred million indexes besides the PNA and NAO speaking abstractly

It’s almost impossible to get a full-on blown whiff on a MECS like we would occasionally get back then, but yeah, this season hasnt been a banner year for model guidance. Btw I forgot to respond to your question about snowfall to date vs climo here back in the February thread…I’m at about 43” I think to date and average to date would prob be around 38-40”. We do still have some beefy snow climo to get through the next 3-4 weeks before it tapers quickly. Snowfall is AN but not drastically so…but snow depth days are way AN since we haven’t melted much since mid January…and even December and early January had a lot of snow cover days even though it was frequently 1-3” crusty inches. I think the next 7-10 days will decide whether this season wants to go well AN into the upper 20-25% of seasons or remain relatively close to the median year and be more remembered for the prolonged cold and snow cover rather than actual storms and totals.

Right on time. Absolutely white out conditions on the Wooly cam.

You nailed it, it’s all about perspective! The 2.6” of snow and temps all day in the teens from the Jan 31 event normally would’ve been a great storm, but being I got probably the lowest total forum wide (at least in the Carolina’s) that was the least enjoyable storm I can ever remember. Really sapped the joy out of what was a beautiful scene the next morning. Anyone complaining about this winter from NYC north I don’t have much sympathy for, they literally have had month+ long snowpack and are almost guaranteed area wide to be above average by March with below normal temps pretty much the entire winter to the point they saw ocean ice and the rivers froze. Once they hit climo you see the venting go way down but no one up there can say this was a bad winter even if they don’t because even in THE BEST winters it’s hard to get the sustained cold and snowpack all the way to the beach they’ve had. DC I can KINDA side with, a lot of the early storms missed them to the south and their big storm turned into a sleet bomb, but they have also enjoyed deep winter with snowpack pretty much until this week though they may not hit climo im sure there will be a time to grade winter here but its hard not to feel disappointed in the triangle, and thats mostly due to perspective from missing the areas one big storm

Going to be tough on HRRR verbatim for Northern CT with heaviest precip up north and temps 45-50 for highs tomorrow. Need that 18z tic south ..

Its driving me nuts, I'm trying to decide if i want to go partly sunny instead of mostly sunny depending on these wobbles.

The 2!AE cut is critical

lol speak for your backyard only

^ This

It would be a lot more fun. Then we wouldn't be so jaded constantly expecting the worst outcome.

Yes it would

If we scored every time it wouldn't be fun.

Little did we know how long we'd be waiting for our next HECS, lol Sheesh

good one cuzo

Now that was a steady as she goes for like a week of model tracking. When instead of worrying about a warm nose, or the column evap cooling… it was will I get 26 or 30

He shanked it!

Oh the humanity. 2016 blizzard broke us. I’m still in shock I haven’t seen a storm over 9” since then.

Nah don't worry all we'll need is 5 west ticks of 500 miles each to reel that baby back in!!!!

Yeah this thing is a pita. Keeping expectations low in the valley with marginal temps and such a narrow band of precip. I'm thinking maybe an inch here.

Lanina,doesn't help.. and of course..the dreaded southeast ridge!

They are useful in better setups when warm air isn’t present in any part of the column. Which lately, is hard to come by around here. But we love our pinks and purples