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  2. I swear they act like Canada is going to be filled with 50 degree air all winter so there won’t be air cold enough to be pulled down even briefly. Canada is likely to be a torch but a Canadian torch in the middle of winter is still cold enough for snow.
  3. No data is of course perfect but it is the best historical validated data we have from the time of record
  4. I would argue the guys speaking in absolutes that there won't be are crazy.
  5. you guys are crazy trying to predict whether there’s going to be 1 big snow storm or not. There’s a reason I don’t do snow outlooks on a seasonal time scale. I rarely ever see anyone get those right.
  6. Almost a 20 degree spread in morning low temperatures today within just a few miles across the area this morning. Elevation and terrain impacts.
  7. Almost a 20 degree spread in morning low temperatures today within just a few miles across the area this morning. Elevation and terrain impacts.
  8. Centered right under Nino 3 at +4.47 now. Starting to see a +30C warm pool bridge develop from Nino 3.4 over to the coast of Central America. Matches up with the record east based forcing for so early in an event.
  9. Fact, not opinion....1972-1973 and 2015-2016 are the only two intense El Ninos that did not feature at least one storm of over a foot in this area...and I'd take my chances with January 2016 again.
  10. Hey, I'm not picky...I'll settle for January-February 1983, December 23, 1997 or January 7th, 2024...TBH the 2016 blizzard is the redux I'd pass on.
  11. Oh, there will be input from him. And maps. And more maps. And even more maps. Love ya', @Blizzard of 93 Don't ever change.
  12. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  13. Yes! My eyes are still rolling from it. At that point I just wanted to get back lol
  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  15. the fact that these two threads have comparable viewership and posting rates is laughable and abhorrent. The thread along with its author shouldve been laughed off this board years ago.
  16. The moment you stamp a 300 word signature below each of your posts we know how desperately difficultly you are trying to plaster your pseudoscientific narratives all across this board.
  17. you need the right pattern in place leading up to those 24 hours. notice the vortex in 2016 was further west than this year's forecast
  18. Gfs has some cold coming down in the long range.
  19. Today
  20. Nice cold air coming into the country on long range gfs. Maybe some lake effect.
  21. It is very likely nyc will not see a freeze until December. In recent years the first <= 32 F night in central park has gotten later and later. some years it doesnt happen until mid December.
  22. They updated the definition last winter: coping /ˈkōpiNG/- "When your warm winter freezes into a cold and snowy one, so you start to talk daily about the Western U.S. or elsewhere on the globe rather than the frozen landscape that is currently in your backyard".
  23. Nothing but mid to high 20's and low 30's the next 7 nights, Been on a good run of sub freezing temps up here so far this fall.
  24. POTENTIAL UNUSUAL POLAR VORTEX STRETCHING/DISTRUPTION EARLY NOVEMBER If this verifies later season stretching/disruptions become more likely and December might not be as warm overall as now expected
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