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Up to 1.83" for the day. Best soaker of the year so far. Combined with yesterday's 0.27" brings us up over 2 inches for the 2-day.

Sitting on my front porch can see a nice lightning display and hear some faint thunder from another flash flood warned storm across Afton in Nelson County near or just east of the Wintergreen area....

Im beginning to believe that my backyard and yours cannot both do well in the same time period during thunderstorm season... I've already matched June down here so far in July... Most of my June rainfall came in two individual thunderstorms...

Less than 1/2" of rain since Jun 28.

Chicago Storm wins again

This isn’t that complicated. It’s getting warmer. And no I don’t care if you can’t handle that fact emotionally. Either because you love snow so much or because you’ve tied your identity to rejecting facts that are inconvenient to your preferences. The thermometer DGAF about your feelings. Regression studies of snowfall are somewhat flawed imo because they apply increased temps to historical storms. Storms tracks depend on thermal boundaries so warmer temps mean the storms aren’t even in the same places anymore. But let’s simplify this. If it’s warmer in general meaning on the average storm tracks will shift north…well that means less snow for us because as you go south from here at similar elevations snowfall goes down. It’s that simple. The climate zones are shifting north with the temps. So what was once normal snow for somewhere in south or Central VA 30 years ago is now DC. Yes there will continue to be snowier and less snowy cycles and winters and there will be occasional big storms but the larger trend is really clear.

unnfff

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option.

lol honestly not that far off. We are guaranteed at least a couple of days in the 70s with dews in the 30s/40s during those months.

I agree with the general tone of your posts. but last winter was also typical of cold dry Nina’s prior to 2016. 2008-2009 was one of my top analogs and it ended up a really close match in reality. If the PDO relaxes as it did last year we might so marginally better than the typical 2017-2024 period of crap. But marginally because the background pattern drivers aren’t really good even in a pre 2017 era. We got low snow winters back then too lol. My gut says the last 8 years was a nadir and even in a lower new normal we will look back on it as a low point. But the next high snow tide isn’t likely to be as good as the last just like the last snowy period in the 2000s wasn’t as snowy as the late 1950s-1960s. The exception will be the random fluke anomaly events that will happen. And sure line up everything and another 2010 can even happen. But there will be longer stretches of snowless dreg in between those positive anomalies.

First evening all week I wasn’t a sweaty mess after a 45 minute walk outside.

lol y’all keep deleting my posts but not banning me. Ok but I’m not going to stop. I have no intention of being a part of a science community not willing to stand up to maga and get in this fight. But I guess I’ll keep posting so long as I’m not banned.

What a week coming up for some great dews. Muggy then hot/muggy.. followed up by some uncomfy..

We can always hope for something like 1999-2000 when 90% of the winter was a hopeless garbage pattern but we got a 10 day window and scored multiple snowstorms. It takes epic good luck though. It’s always possible though.

2.14" of rain fell this evening from the big MCS. The daily total is 2.43". This is my second 2+" rain event in the last week. July is up to 4.98". We had 3" in all of June.

Narrator voice, “this did not occur”

Fire flies are glowing, frogs are hopping around and croaking, mosquitoes circling around every living, breathing thing and the air has suddenly become a little steamier in the last few hours..yep, summah is back right where she left off! Soak it all in baby.

Mild

a keg

Does anyone know that the top global sea-level pressure correlation during an ENSO event is actually NW of Australia and in Indonesia.. it's a total global-tropical phenomenon.. that >0.6 correlation in the equilateral-Atlantic is impressive, too.

Ha, I mean BOS and BDL are +3.2. Its been a warm start to the month.

all I was saying was it wasn't hot or super humid

El Nino favors cooler waters in the mid-latitudes where the Hadley Cell meets the Mid-latitude Cell... it's the opposite of what we have now from Japan to north of Hawaii

Yikes!