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We've seen this scenario time and again the past several winters. The euro being the coldest solution/outlier 3-4 days out then slowly trends to other guidance, It could be anecdotal but just seems to have a cold bias up here in that mid range. In the past it wouldn't budge much while the other models trend much colder.

Yeah that’s further SE than pivotal by a decent amount. Sv is awful.

Yeah overall cold but I don't like seeing those low heights over Alaska ak vortex.

Euro with a little hope Friday morning?

That’s the right way to look at it. We have more storm threats ahead of this. This one looks like it’s going to be for northern areas.

Start time is sooner down your way i would think.

I agree... in the Warning, they mention the morning commute

It looks to get going late morning here but that late afternoon commute will be a bitch i believe.

I edited my post but it is crawling up the coast. WxBell shows some ice for DC - did kind of assume that precip would’ve been snow

It’s great

Through Friday afternoon the only snow is in SE VA.

I still don't think the morning commute will be bad...

On the western side of the county (Narrowsburg area) at slightly lower elevation so more 4-6” and possibly drizzle to end, if we even get that warm.

When a hobby is impacting personal wellbeing it is time to find another hobby...

I just hit the "Switch to Beta" on Pivotal... wow. Much better. Any downsides to it?

latest hrrr comes in pretty hot and heavy out here.

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted, 1236 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 9 inches. * WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine and central, northern, and southern New Hampshire. * WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...A snowstorm will bring plowable snow to the region with a period of moderate travel impacts expected. Periods of moderate snow and low visibility will be the biggest hazards. The potential exists for snowbands that will bring periods of locally heavy snowfall, which will lead to rapid snow accumulations and extremely dangerous travel conditions. Periods of moderate and heavy snow will combine with low visibility to create dangerous driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by going to newengland511.org Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order.

People wonder why I’m a worrier with weather …

12z EURO should be better. Actually has a storm somewhere in the area

Not the trend you want to see up to storm onset. 925s and 850s are just too warm, which makes sense given the setup. Hopefully this trend halts and we see things shift SE tonight. But at that point, it's time to look at obs and radar watch. Shaping up to be a typical early season interior storm with maybe a surprise 1-2" thump on the southern boundary along I-78

Your area is interesting... hopefully the column cools a bit... tenuous

Only people sniffing 10:1 ratios with this is going to be closer to CNE and probably into ME. Other than that, anyone snow down here is probably going to be closer to 8:1

doesn't make it right even if it does thats a lot of snow its printing out with 925 mb > 0 C def not the trend you want to see for the marginal areas in metro west

really? hmmm...I always thought it was around this time with DST. But good to know, thanks!