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MJO is a pattern driver. That means that it will favor certain patterns, but that doesn't mean those favored patterns will happen all the time. If it's a look like @brooklynwx99 showed up there, the MJO is negligible.

maybe that's why the models have been all over the place this winter

Curious where you get these before the CLI comes out? OKX never plotted them on the interactive map

Imagine doing it without a ruler.

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

But it didn’t.

IDK seems like Nam/GFS did a good job for the most part with this part storm.

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

We need it to develop over midwest not over the coast.

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

Actually CP …. WG’s efforts bring back TV show memories from my youth. Raul Dahl ‘Way Out’ and even the Outer Limits and they were fun to watch. Stay well, as always…..

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

Yep. Models have struggled up here with their snow happy tendencies for the past few years. Once they finally realize I moved up here from Bwi land, reality will set in and they'll start denying snow regularly more in line with my curse.

"NCP" non crystallized precipitation was often used in ski area reports

East coast pattern?

7.5" snow/ice pack here. Crazy how long this has been around. Last night's event was 'technically' snow on snow/sleet on snow.

Not a huge signal on EPS but there are a couple nice ones

thanks I think you're right that's a typo, it should be Wintry mix

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:

HII

I've seen little snow devils but nothing like those pics. The only dust devil I've seen came in the hot summer of 1966, where I was cooking burgers and dogs in the lodge at Curtiss-Wright's employee lake resort in NNJ. On a hot but dry and near-calm August, the small (<20 ac) lake was suddenly full of whitecaps from a north wind gusting probably to 40 down the long axis of the lake. The spinner formed at the south end of the lodge, moved against the wind behind the building, then headed across the water. On the way it tossed the thick cushion from a 6-foot lounge chair about 50 feet up into an oak while flipping the wooden chair end-over-end to the water's edge, also flipping the 14-foot rescue boat. It picked up the thigh-high steel base of an outdoor ash tray and carried it round and round across the lake and 30-40 feet off the water before hitting the far side woods and dissipating. My guess on why it formed was that the wind passing north-to-south past the lodge caused low pressure at the south end of the building, and air curling into the "vacuum" started to whirl and kept on spinning for several minutes. The sudden wind itself lasted less than 15 minutes.

You sound like the person that measures in central park...why even bother

33" season total, above my yearly average by 3-4", nice. Lets get some more!