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ICON KOOCHIE!!!

Down to 8 here

CNJ / middle third is a tough forecast I’m thinking, anywhere in the battleground / changeover stripe is gonna be a tough call. Depends further if we’re talking accumulating sleet or white rain, or even ice - not so sure that’s well resolved. Hoping the city gets blasted, but for here I’m really not sure. Mt Holly is still fairly aggressive even with their now reduced totals (7-13). Accuweather has near even odds between 8-12, 4-8, and even 2-4 which underscores what I’m talking about. Could bust high or bust low, tough one. Down to 10 with a -6 DP! I’d say the arctic air has arrived . Still falling.

well that's a good f'in way to start the day!!

I missed the 2016 blizzard and the 2021 snowstorm. It's been a long time since I've seen this. Yeah, I'm excited about it. So what? Do you have to be rude about it?

I see the same uncertainty the normal liminal spaces, the floor is just higher. The thing is there's a massive sensible and aesthetic differences between having a snowstorm then rain then some more on top, than having a nice pack. That's how you get that horrible false last stair feeling as a kid as you fall through that layer of hardened ice. Beggars can't be choosers and all that, but I'm sadly sitting this one out, so it's not even that.

We are all probably going to get a good ZR event.

-3° roaring

You're getting a little hyperbolic. Unless you're under age ten I believe we've all seen 2-3 inch rates per hour many times. It's great but not a once in a lifetime. Get a grip man you're becoming a NY post headline.

So, do you think the precipitation will be mostly sleet in the CAD regions, like upstate SC?

I feel like I am gonna be sick.

That's half an inch of sleet on LI which is nothing.

sick

NWS already started scaling back the warnings. Down to 11-15in in Allentown from the initial 12-18in.

FWIW NAM kind of stopped its own bleeding. Still many areas don’t hit the low end of their projected NWS snows, but it as *slightly* better than 0z

Looks at these 4am obs though. Cold air is screaming down the lee side. And those DPs! CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS WASHINGTON NAT PTCLDY 14 -9 35 N24G30 30.60R WCI -5 DULLES PTCLDY 11 -10 38 N15G23 30.60R WCI -5 ANDREWS AFB PTCLDY 14 -13 30 N17 30.55R WCI -3 QUANTICO CLEAR 16 -10 31 N20G33 30.59R WCI -1 COLLEGE PARK* PTCLDY 13 -12 32 N16 30.61R WCI -3 LEESBURG* PTCLDY 10 -6 48 MISG 30.61R MANASSAS* CLEAR 13 -8 39 N17 30.61R WCI -4 GAITHERSBURG* PTCLDY 9 -10 42 VRB6 30.57R WCI -1

OPM has gone to Monday maximum telework in the DC area. Those who were scheduled to work in the DC area but are not teleworkers get safety leave. More details: Current Status

850mb front stalls over my head all day tomorrow. Thankfully 925mb sub -5C will freeze a lot of that for me. But depending on 850mb front could shift precip.types around

10 here

And its going nowhere next week....what a period to build big depth. This can be the big one.Just give us a few two to fours over the next week or so after

The forecast low was 17 degrees, it's currently 24.7/0, I have a bad feeling this is going to be a freezing rain nightmare.

That's some of the most uniform qpf output I think I have ever seen over a huge area

Posting these H7 and 850Mb temp profiles from 0Z GFS, NAM runs tonight for visual reference on why ETX icing, is bound to be majorly impactful Saturday night. As long as 850Mb - 700Mb layer warm-rain processes don't get too much in the way.

In Buda, Texas, Northerly breezes up to 37 mph have dropped temperatures 30 degrees down from our earlier highs in the mid 60s. At this rate we will be subfreezing by 7am. Rain will be freezing on every surface down here. It will then proceed to drop all day Saturday, into the teens Saturday night with persistent ZR. This storm may end as snow here Sunday. Next weekend another storm and trough will bring yet another round of rain, ZR, sleet and even snow to Austin Texas. Is this Texas or Northern Virginia?

Seems like trends are steady for now. Hopefully a tick south for srn areas. And for Monday.