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Thought maybe I went a little overboard last night, yet tonight just confirmed my thoughts. Damn Oh well, peace!!

CanSIPS is probably the best possible outcome. Basin wide Nino and h5 looks favorable for cold air delivery via a -EPO/good TPV position, and hints of -NAO at times.

I noticed that this year. 45% for wind is being issued more often E of the Mississippi. It can be misleading, esp. when doing stats over time for trends. Our standards are practices change, and the fcst science advances. It reminds me of when MRGL and ENH was added. You get more of a "bulls-eye effect" now when you have a sig svr wx outbreak fcst, but it does not mean things are more amp'ed or intense for sensible wx, just we can just be more precise w/ outlooks given better modelling and knowledge.

Huge storm blew up and pummeled east toward 77. Just wet the ground here a little. Story of the summer for the most part.

when the the TD in the Gulf of Mexico becomes a threat to the eastern seaboard, I'll be tracking it with you

I'm not taking anything personal on this Board. Lol I'm just being blunt. You've said several times that the seasonal models are just spitting out canonical enso winter forecasts and Cfs2 clearly didn't based on the temp forecast you criticized but never posted. And remember, you picked the 23/24 winter as the example. But we agree on 1 thing. The seasonal models won't be right in all locations around the globe. If you're going to judge them based on an entire continent or the world, then fine, they stink. But that doesn’t mean they can't be close in some areas. I only care about the east, specifically the N. Mid Atlantic. As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them.

There’s a TD in the Gulf Of America . I know many folks interested in the tropics are tracking it .

am i correct in understanding you don't see a problem here ?

One thing w/ the WBZ, if you can get a stout supercell w/ intense mid-level meso, the WBZ means little b/c hailstones get so large and fall so fast, little melting occurs upon their final descent. Also, such large, cold ice masses actually can continue to grow upon their final descent since drops are freezing upon contact of the mass. The best is when directional shear is huge. It really strings out of hodograph and increases the residence time in the HGZ. You get more "twisty" updraft spirals. It's one reason why hail is so common in the Front Range, lee troughing promotes backed low-level winds and you have W or NW flow at 500, so at times literally 180 deg turning sfc-500! Also, don't need very strong winds. You can have SE winds at 20 kt at the sfc, and 20 kt out o the NW at 500,, that equates to 40 kt deep layer shear, and you have enough for supercells despite winds aloft not standing out.

To be fair, everything weather related is now political. Shit, every thing under the sun is now.

Talking about a a weather issue in an official body of water . What’s the problem here ?

May pick up an inch today after .75 yesterday. Very welcome. .

more political BS on the weatherside tolerated because, well, reasons

DIT’s under shorts….ewww!

We’re too busy tracking your moving date to be concerned with “The Gulf of America”.

where is the Gulf of America, never heard of it before

How many folks are tracking soon to be TS Bertha located here ? I know many of us are !

Today's Highs: TEB: 85 PHL: 85 EWR: 84 New Brnswck: 84 LGA: 83 TTN: 83 ACY: 82 NYC: 81 BLM: 79 JFK: 79 ISP: 78

I know some some excellent "movers"...the family may be light a few items by the time the moving van arrives in Texas..a form of tipping so to speak..

Amazingly, I dropped even lower for a low this morning after posting, that hit 59. That meant AC off and house aired out. Did get up to 85 for a high and it's currently 77 with dp 62 - more normal for summer.

4….

Is there a sign up sheet ??

You’re just now learning how to drive like the rest of us?

From a satellite protestation, I agree w/ the NHC upgrade to TS at 00z, sheared as it may be. Look at the last VIS, it seems one LLCC is moving farther away from the convection to the N, and it looks like there may be another LLCC to its WSW that is drifting SSW. This is common for broad, nascent TCs -- more than one LLCC. For a sheared system, I am surprised the convection on the downshear side is not more intense. It has struggled to get to -75 C for cloud tops. Often, sheared TCs have much colder convective tops (<-90 C) than even a mature hurricane as wind shear actually promotes more intense convection from dry air mid-level and better lapse rates hence stronger tstm updrafts. Not the best looking TC on sat or radar, but they come in all sorts of types. A Spectrum, not one-size-fits-all! Such a formatio outside the MDR/deep tropics) is consisten for a strong El Nino year.