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Of course it lags, but it leads you to the driver.

2023-2024 had strong MC forcing though, which as you know is significant source of destructive interference for high latitude blocking. I don't deny that this is probably CC enhanced, and perhaps it won't end up meaning much...I'm open to that, but I don't think that we can summarily dismiss it as an artifact of CC.

12Z runs similar to 00Z. 98% EPS. 70% GEFS. Interesting little trend though lately on both Op runs with longer lasting reversals.

Getting Modoki value correct is part of what comprises an accurate ENSO forecast....you want to say EURO has been best, okay....but it's not been perfect is all I mean.

I understand that, but it's still off...doesn't matter why.

I told you why I doubted the magnitude...had nothing to do with a desire for cold.

lol…we’re such nerds.

I mean I enjoy fall colors and snowfall but the older I get, the more my body and mind just love warmer weather. There’s also something really satisfying about not having to use the air-conditioning or the heat.

65-72 was -AMO, I believe.....we were in a dry pattern in the NE bc we had MC forcing for the better part of a decade. ..I would not go dry this year.

Check this colder change from the EWs for week 2 (Nov 9-15): 1. H5 2 runs ago: Yesterday’s: Today’s: nice E US trough 2m from 2 days ago: Yesterday: cooler Today’s: even cooler Rainfall: 2 days ago: slightly wet SE Yesterday’s: a little drier Today’s: even drier with the colder air

maybe for you.

Exactly. The data and its results speak for themselves, for Yellow Medicine County, MN, and elsewhere.

It looked like we were finally going to break the dry streak as early as this coming Monday. CTP has now removed all chances of rain (here) until at least next Thursday. Ouch.

Here's another pic

98 was an all timer for most….that gave everybody up that way their fill…an ice storm like that will hold you over for a generation or two. Quebec was absolutely devastated. Wasn’t 97-98 a Super Nino?

Saw some sun dog or halo like features around the sun during the drive home today

Its also weaker as time goes on .

Lower mean today....underwater

So the pattern will not get colder even if its brief ? ^

As already noted, same idea with hurricanes. Personal significant ice storms: Jan 1953 NNJ: 1-1.5", every tall tree lost limbs or snapped completely, lost power for 6 days. Dec 1970 NNJ: 0.7-0.8", took out some large branches, short power outage. Dec 1983 Fort Kent: Similar to 12/70. Jan 1998 Gardiner: 1.5"+, possibly the widest area with heavy heavy damage, outage. We lost power 4 days, phone 13 days. Other than those, none even reaching 1/2" - nothing bigger than 1/4" since '98.

Honestly, no need to do that. The ones who cancel winter every year before it begins and tout warm this and snowless that absolutely disappear in spring when its time to own up on their massive fails- they just start touting how warm the next winter will be.

Life would absolutely SUCK without the 4 seasons we are fortunate to get. That said, this weather has been perfect to enjoy the beauty of Fall.

Our 2nd state in the Nationwide Actual Raw vs. NCEI Adjusted Study for New Jersey is now available for review and download. For much more detail including study design, by decade breakdowns, county by county maps and breakdowns for all State Counties that compare actual vs NCEI trends for each NJ county please go to https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-state-by-state/ The main finding The NWS raw trained observer temperatures show significant warming in New Jersey since 1895 (+0.15 °F per decade). NCEI's adjusted temperatures show about twice as much warming (+0.31 °F per decade). That difference between the two trend lines is statistically significant. Averaging what New Jersey's observers actually recorded, county by county and weighted by county area, gives +0.15 °F per decade from 1895 to 2025 (significant), about +2.0 °F in total. NCEI's published statewide series gives +0.31 °F per decade (significant), about +4.1 °F in total. NCEI's series runs 1.4–1.7 °F below the actual readings in every decade from 1895 through the 1940s; 0.7–1.1 °F below them in the 1950s to 1970s; 0.4–0.6 °F below them in the 1980s and 1990s; within 0.2 °F of them from 2000 on. NCEI's adjusted temperatures are lower than the actual readings in every decade from the 1890s through the 1990s.

FINAL OUTLOOK FOR WINTER 2026-2027 (Western Pennsylvania Weather Forecaster) UPDATED!!!!! The threat of a polar vortex setting up in later November through mid December is looking a bit more likely. [OVERALL OUTLOOK] -December could start with early season arctic blasts and a potential early winter storm with Milder periods possible . It will began to get cold with frequent winter storms in mid January-March with polar vortex disruptions. Winter storms could include messy mixtures of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. The atmosphere will be well loaded with moister due to the super El Niño. With polar vortex disruptions, this will increase the chances for bigger snowstorms (8-12 Inches+). Above average snow likely with 45-55 inches of snow expected for the season. 140% of average snow. [MOTHLY OUTLOOK] {DECEMBER} - Potential for colder and snowier start due to the Polar Vortex then normal across much of the area. Temps could get very cold at times. Potential for Milder periods. Some winter storms possible mainly mixing or ice/snow. {JANUARY} -Colder with the threat of several winter storms. These could include mixtures of rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow especially in northwestern Pa. Southwestern Pa would have the higher chance of seeing all snow events or rain transitioning to snow events. {FEBRUARY} -Coldest air of winter will arrive in strong arctic blasts. Most Winter storms will more likely be all snow. Northwestern Pa could see storms mixing with ice. Potential for a few significant winter storms bringing as much as 12 inches + of snow in some areas. {MARCH} -Off and on arctic blasts with swings of warm and cold likely. Winter storms possible early month. Temperatures warm near the end of the month.

^that's not terrible at all