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But doesn't apply to those in SON, there is a fire sale of them . Getting the first real frost of the season, 1C/33F incoming .

Given the fcst 850-200 mb wind shear over the northern Gulf is fcst in excess of 50 kt and how the global models depict the storm structure, I have a tough time thinking this can sustain a tropical status once farther N. Sfc winds E of the center will likely get quite strong, but due to baroclinic deepening. If this were a well-established strong TC already, I would not be as concerned about the shear here. Here are two storms in early Oct 1992 and 1994 that fit this scenario. The 1992 event deepened to 996 mb and and 1994 to 1000 mb from baroclinic processes.

Winds blasting the tin roof with acorns tonight Also friendly reminder clocks roll back an hour on Halloween so we get the models an hour earlier Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

GREAT! Headin' right back to another Royal Caribbean ship for a vacay.

It was 69 and muggy in my room.

Invasive and damaging. no want.

WHOA you guys have 45 degree dewpoints and dropped to 48 degrees last night in Dale City?! Congrats!

I think you're splitting hairs and reaching.................first of all, I don't think that any degree of difference with respect to LE and measuring technique would negate the evolutionary advantages that Miller B type cyclogenesis has. Secondly, couple said evolutionary differences with that that Miller B also tend to be less progressive, and that negates any LEQ advantage and increased proclivity for compression that Miller A had. Would like to go through the list of Miller B captures and Miller A captures (good luck)? So, we are talking about less progressive systems on average, which protracts precp and augments measuring inconsistencies due to companion, that also tend to have the timing of approach more closely align with max rate of depending of mid level centers. Mic drop-

57 here. Winds keeping it from radiating much.

Posted this on the Tropical Forum, but will do so here b/c this could some "fun ' games" as to what is what when it comes to a TC or not! ----- Something doesn't seem right. I was surprised the 18z ECWMF suddenly went the GFS route. The 700-300 mb RH fields and PWAT anoms tell the story. I attached 18z ECMWF 72, 105, and 114 hr 700-300 RH. Even when it is still the Bay of Campeche, it is "halved" from a strong moisture gradient, and it just gets stronger w/ time. looking like a typical ET low development. And look at the 114 hr fcst PWAT anomaly. That clearly shows a frontal structure, and compare the PWAT anomalies to Simon in the EPAC. That's not nearly the anomaly you'd see in a typical TC. I can see NHC "playing games" here. Calling it something that it is not b/c of non-meteorological factors (social media nonsense, its sensible wx impact, etc). But ET low can and do form in the Gulf in Oct (see the 1992 case I posted about earlier) and given the strength of El Nino, it makes ET lows this early even more likely. In fact, by 36 hr, the 250 mb STJ become quite apparent near the Gulf Coast, and in 5 days close to landfall, a strong 250 s/w is present in the region, obviously aiding in the system's development. Some might go, "but the simulated IR from the GFS shows an eye!" Well, it is the GFS, and yes, initially it could be a TS/STS but here lies another issue, transition to a PT/ET low when it is approaching a landfall. Sandy anyone? You see the problem here. But I say, in the end, it is what it is, and call it as such. Don't let external pressures and nonsense contaminate the met science!

Seems to be so in the modern climate. Not so much in the "old days" . Oct. 13, 77 measurable snow in SWVA. Oct 10, 79 major snow Shenandoah valley and measurable much of MA(Orioles game). Those following Winter's turned out below avg T's and average to above Snowfall. There's several instances further back that show similar outcomes. The Latest good following was '95-96. trace amounts Oct 25 in portions of the MA and Tn Valley.

Hurricane models overwhelmingly favor intensification into a hurricane

I’ve turned into the old man from “Up” last ten years. I used to hope for snow/oce, now I hope for rain. Sadly, anything ocean oscillating is terrible when forecasting 7-10 days out.

CAR 2.5" Sep 29-30, 1991 for its first measurable snow on record in Sep. 2" at Glen NH Sep 16, 1986 as a spinner occurred at the same time in Scituate MA. @CoastalWx be like, "how can that be!?"

If anything, it will be a interesting year w/the addition of Brown and LeBron. Right now probably our best chance to win a championship. Not giving up on the Birds but injuries and such/O-line problems...it just may be one of those years.

Currently 38 in Walpack and 41 in Sandyston per NJ WXNET. Those places in the NW Sussex County valleys radiate like crazy so sub freezing likely there come Wednesday morning and close to freezing in a few spots tomorrow morning.

47 so far.

Jeez 60 here

30F at 3,600ft and 41F at 1,500ft… 45F here with gusty winds.

One could say that Miller A having higher LEQ and lower snow ratios due to their warmer nature, they likely have more underestimation due to compaction.

40"+ was common N&W of BOS for 78.

44/37 currently. 30s tomorrow night likely.

Here are a couple: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/23/jcli-d-18-0159.1.xml