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Congrats CT

I only realized after I drew it all that it was nearly a carbon copy of the February threat if it worked out. Blame my school for only teaching me the Norway model of cyclogenesis and me only learning meteorology in the past La Niña years. Maybe I’ll try again later with a more west to northeast progression and add in some dynamics to guide me.

That's actually most of an average yearly count for the state (50-54 depending on the source). Could get a few more Saturday per NAM; although bulk shear will be weak there is a 700mb shortwave trough with ample low-level turning and 0-3KM CAPE.

July was similar nationally to 2002, 2003, 2006 more than the recent El Ninos, in terms of US temp profile. Recent events (2009-) were either much colder or had different spatial distributions for warm/cool areas. July is close enough to winter that you can probably infer meaningfully what will happen from the tele-connection set. This is July 2026: -EPO, -WPO, +PNA, -NAO, +AO. Of those, EPO was extremely negative. -EPO July, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1969, 1976, 1979, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2018 -WPO July, El Nino: 1953, 1957, 1969, 1972, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2014, 2018, 2019 +PNA July, El Nino: 1953, 1958, 1969, 1979, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2019, 2023 -NAO July, El Nino: 1957, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1976, 1977, 1991, 2009, 2015, 2019, 2023 +AO July, El Nino: 1951, 1953, 1969, 1979, 1982, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2018 On the five signs, you only have a handful of El Ninos that are 3-4-5 match candidates. Those are bold above. 3 match group: 1953, 1957, 1979, 2018, 2019 4 match group: 1969, 1991, 2002, 2006 If you roll that nine year blend forward to winter - certainly somewhat more muted and different spatially then what I expect. The -EPO July is actually a fairly big warm signal for the following December in the Great Basin, weaker for the rest of the West to the NM/AZ border, and a weak cold signal for the SE US south of DC. That's like a +30% snowfall winter composite for me. All of those winters have fairly notorious off-season flukish snow events, which is a major feature of El Nino. You can get heavy snow in Oct-Nov and/or Mar-Apr in additional to decent snow in winter.

Under a severe thunderstorm warning for the 2nd evening a in row.

Will be less than .10 here tonight. Wagons SW.

Saw some awesome meteors tonight in obx

0z nam

Ended up with just over an inch on the day. High of 69, low of 67, lol

Unfortunately the buoy system TAO uses is being fixed right now so a lot is being missed past the dateline.

And the afternoon BOU AFD is now very pessimistic for much over the next few days in the Metro. Lots of "if"s in there.

You know the rules, have to change your location to droughtville and make a cash donation to @cyclone77

Which seems like a lot, but that is like 1 good afternoon this season.

Looks like north and eastern areas

I'm not on the beach. I have missed all those blizzards too- but I usually manage to get a moderate(6-10")event at least.

Light rain and smoky skies moved in just in time for the meteor shower.

0.13"

its August 12 and we’re making our own digital snow we are actually going crazy

Maybe if ya all weren’t dicks to the poor guy who was just trying to post current data, he wouldn’t have left thinking everyone hated him. But Fuck It, right. Ya all won a stupid battle. Congrats on making yourselves feel better.